Adrian Sampson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Adrian Sampson misses bats at a below average rate (18.8 K%) with an ERA and estimators around five and has allowed the loudest contact on the board (.363 xwOBA, 90.7 mph aEV and 46.5% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board). While it’s always great to get out of Texas and Seattle is a major park bump for him that might mute some of that loud contact a bit, he is the only pitcher on the board to feature a Z-Contact above 90% and a Z-O-Swing above 40%. While Dan Vogelbach (162 wRC+, .319 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) immediately jumps to mind as the play here. RHBs have a wOBA (.384) and xwOBA (.404) more than 40 points above LHBs against Sampson over the last calendar year. Domingo Santana (117 wRC+, .179 ISO) may be just as strong a play at the same price. Add J.P. Crawford (132 wRC+, .242 ISO) to stacks at a much lower price.

Adrian Sampson misses bats at a near average rate (19.2 K%, 9.9 SwStr%) with good control (5.3 BB%), but gets hammered by contact (board high 34 Hard-Soft%, 90.8 mph aEV and 47% 95+ mph EV). His 90.5 Z-Contact% and 42.6 Z-O-Swing% do not bode well either. His 4.16 ERA is not too bad, nor is his 4.53 SIERA, but DRA (5.68) and xwOBA (.356) are much less enthusiastic about his performance. The Twins are one of the top offenses on the board at 5.8 implied runs and rightfully so. LHBs have scolded him over the last calendar year (.374 wOBA, .403 xwOBA), but RHBs have done well enough too (.313 wOBA, .315 xwOBA), making it difficult to spot a poor value in this lineup. Weather concerns could push some players away from this game. Only Luis Arraez (168 wRC+, .137 ISO) and Marwin Gonzalez (95 wRC+, .155 ISO) are below a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year in this lineup with Gonzalez the low man by wRC+ too. This is a deep and potent lineup that could go off without all that much attention tonight.

The afternoon slate is another slate where we have to get creative at SP because there just isn’t much to choose from. Adrian Sampson hasn’t had a great year as he has a 4.14 ERA, 4.90 xFIP and 4.55 SIERA with an 18.6% K-BB, 5.1% BB rate and 9.7% SwStr. He’s been much better over the past 30 days though, posting a 3.99 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA, 24.2% K rate with just a 3.9% BB Rate and 10.6% SwStr. Looking at his profile, he hasn’t made any big changes in pitch selection or velocity, but he has cut his walk rate almost in half while improving his O-Swing% by 5 percentage points. The Rays have been a good offense overall this year and have a 104 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year, though over the past 30 days they have just a 89 wRC+. Sampson projects to have plus pitch-framer Jeff Mathis behind the plate, and will also have a very pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes in Mike Estabrook. Sampson is just $7k on Draftkings and $6.7k on Fanduel for this matchup against the Rays.

The Cardinals are in Arlington tonight to face the Rangers, who project to use Jose Leclerc as an opener and then likely Adrian Sampson in long relief. Sampson has nothing in his profile that suggests he’s any good; for his career he has a 5.09 ERA / 5.97 xFIP / 5.14 SIERA with an 8.7 K-BB%. In 2019 Sampson has a 47.5% hard contact rate, just a 36.4% GB rate, a .398 xwOBA allowed and a 12.3% barrel rate. Sampson doesn’t figure to last long in this game, and the Rangers terrible bullpen (5.00 xFIP, 7.8 K-BB% in 2019) gives Cardinals batters even more upside. St. Louis has been hot with the 3rd best xwOBA of any team over the past 10 days (.371). Matt Carpenter (129 wRC+, .248 ISO vs. RHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (138 wRC+, .226 ISO), Paul Dejong (123 wRC+, .209 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (103 wRC+, .172 ISO) and (Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .140 ISO) project to be the top 5 batters for STL, in that order. Jose Martinez has been the Cards’ hottest hitter with a .460 xwOBA over the past 10 days. Matt Carpenter (.372) has seen the ball well after a rough start to 2019 and might be the best value in the lineup, projected to hit leadoff at just $4k on Draftkings. The Cardinals have a whopping 6.32 implied total vs. the Rangers in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park tonight.

The A’s face Adrian Sampson in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park and have an implied total of 5.59. Sampson hasn’t shown anything impressive as a pitcher in the majors and is projected for a 5.22 ERA this year per ZiPS. Khris Davis (.400 xwOBA in 2018 vs. RHP), Stephen Piscotty (.354), Kendrys Morales (.400), Matt Chapman (.352), Robbie Grossman (.305) and Jurickson Profar (.325) are all solid options in the A’s projected lineup. Khris Davis is the only bat over $5k on Draftkings but might be well worth it given his xwOBA of .465 the past 7 days. Jurickson Profar has one of the highest xwOBA in the league over the past 7 days with a .508 mark. Kendrys Morales might be the best value at just $3.9k and the highest xwOBA of all current A’s vs. RHP in 2018. All the A's bats seem reasonably priced given the matchup and environment Sunday afternoon.

What a difference a weekend makes. That and the fact that rosters have been expanded for nearly a month now. Only two major league bullpens have a FIP above five over the last 30 days. The Marlins (5.69 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) separate themselves from the rest of the pack. Sandy Alcantara makes his fifth start in Washington, but has been averaging nearly six innings per start through his first four. Adrian Sampson makes his third start for the Rangers (5.20 FIP, 8.6 K-BB%) in Los Angeles (AL). He's totaled 10.2 innings in his two starts. The Yankees (3.61 K-BB%, 20.1 K-BB%) and Brewers (2.86 FIP, 21.4 K-BB%) are going entirely with bullpens today. The Brewers are still fighting for post-season positioning against the Cardinals. The Yankees haven't clinched home field for the WIld Card game and are in Tampa Bay tonight. These are two of the strongest pens in baseball over the last month.

A massive park boost and a matchup with a 26 year-old rookie who hasn't exceeded an 18 K% at any level since 2012 shoots the Rays to the top of the board with 5.66 implied runs in Texas. No other team is within one-half run. Behind Adrian Sampson, making his second start, the Texas bullpen is one of the worst in the league (5.33 FIP, 11.3 K-BB% last 30 days). Each of the first six batters in the lineup are above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Ji-Man Choi (140 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (133 wRC+, .230 ISO) have shown the most power. This is a very stack worthy lineup and fairly affordable in most spots as well. Not a single Tampa Bay bat is above $3.5K on FanDuel.