AJ Reed Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It's not often a +EV move to pick on Gerrit Cole, but the Pirates right-hander hasn't been his usual sharp self lately and the Pirates have actually now dropped each of his first three starts this month (as he sports a 5.40 ERA in August). With that said, it's been Cole's struggles with left-handed batters that has gotten him into trouble at times this season (.351 wOBA against) which doesn't set up too well for this right-handed heavy Astros lineup. While this gives merit to consider A.J. Reed, it's the usual suspects of Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve that are still the top options.

Ivan Nova has mediocre strikeout stuff (17.8% K%) and a high ground ball rate (52.0%) against right-handed hitters this season, making us more interested in left-handed batters against him (against LHB this season, Nova has only a 13.4% strikeout rate, to go with a 39.8% hard-hit rate and a mere average batted ball profile). Unfortunately, the best way to target the Astros is with their stat right-handed batters. With that said, this is a sneaky spot for A.J. Reed, who has exhibited tremendous power in the minors but has not yet managed to make a huge impact in the big leagues, and for Jason Castro (.204 ISO vs RHP), who actually has one of the highest hard-hit rates in the majors against right-handed pitching at 40.7%, and is only held back by his astronomical 35.2% strikeout rate. With the strikeout danger lowered against Nova, the upside of that hard contact is very much in play. While we want to stay away from the Astros righties in general, Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .202 ISO) and Carlos Correa (134 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .212 ISO) have the talent to overcome a matchup against any right-handed pitcher.

While targeting Yovani Gallardo may not seem like an art, his xFIP has varied, ranging from 5.74 in April to 4.94 in August. Over the last two weeks, Gallardo has an xFIP of 5.75 and a k percentage of 17%, indicating at a minimum that Gallardo is not in peak form. When Gallardo lacks his best stuff, LHBs are a good place to begin when targeting him with opposing batters. Gallardo’s season long 31% hard contact and 44% fly ball percentage allowed to LHBs has led to a 1.42 HR/9 that is as legitimate at HR/9 can be. We already know Altuve and Springer are good plays on most nights, but look to A.J. Reed at 1B today, since he will be batting from the left side against Gallardo in a hitters park.

Carlos Martinez has pitched admirably for the Cardinals this season, but with a 5.10 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, it appears the 24 year-old may be starting to run out of gas at this point in the season. While the usual suspects of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer are all fine options on a daily basis, its been left-handed batters that have caused Martinez the most trouble throughout his career (.329 wOBA against in 2016). With that said, a handful of the Houston's left-handed bats find themselves on the DL, leaving Jason Castro and A.J. Reed as the two value plays that benefit from Martinez' LvsR splits. Evan Gattis gets the afternoon off.