Alex Cobb Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The top of the board gives you plenty to think about tonight. Great pitchers in a great spots, highly volatile ones in highly volatile spots and also weather, but the middle of the board offers some value too. Alex Cobb has struck out just six of 36 batters (Reds & Pirates) since his latest return from the IL, but a 5.48 ERA is quite humorous (though not to him) in combination with a 19.5 K-BB%, 62.3 GB%, 87.1 mph EV and 2.3% Barrels/BBE. Five of his three barrels have left the yard. No, that does not make any sense on any level, but that’s the point. Non-FIP estimators (17.9 HR/FB) range from a 2.33 xERA to a 3.05 DRA. The legitimate downside here is that he’s only completed six innings this season, partially because he keeps getting injured and has to build back up. The White Sox have been poor (89 wRC+, 7.4 HR/FB), but contact prone (20.4 K%) against RHP this year. Even with the workload concern, Cobb is the only pitcher to project above 4.0 P/$ on FanDuel currently, costing just $7.6K. He projects as just the eighth best value, but still viable, at $8.3K on DraftKings.

Opposing Cobb, Lance Lynn struck out a season high eight of 29 Orioles with his velocity a tick higher than his first two starts. He’s now struck out 17 of 73 batters with a 15.2 SwStr% and just three walks. With three of his four barrels (7.8%) leaving the yard, along with a .354 BABIP and 52.9 LOB%, his 6.19 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, ranging widely from a 3.32 SIERA & xFIP to a 5.08 xERA in a small sample, but his latest effort should produce more optimism than concern, despite the ugly final line. Should the underlying numbers stabilize where they are, and they’re just about at stabilization points, it would point to Lynn being back to his standard form and running a price tag we won’t see him at for much longer. The Giants have a 107 wRC+ and 22.6 K% vs RHP, but Lynn projects as a top five value on either site for less than $8K.

Do not despair at Blake Snell’s surprisingly low 24.4 K%, as his 13.4 SwStr% is higher than last year and right in line with his career rate (13.6%). The walks are still a major problem (12.2%), allowing him to only complete six innings twice in seven starts, but the 5.60 ERA is a product of his 58.6 LOB%. Estimators range from a 3.78 FIP to a 4.34 xFIP and would drop even lower with an increase in strikeouts. Snell does not project particularly well against the Dodgers (106 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs LHP), but is a reasonable GPP risk in the $8K range.

Considering those who may play well in an SP2 spot on DraftKings, Brad Keller may have pitched his way out of some rotations by now, but not the Royals, despite a career low 15.3 K% without much improvement in any other area. Despite a solid walk rate (7.8%) and nearly half of his contact on the ground (49.6%), limiting barrels to 6.2% of contact, he’s failed to allow at least three runs in just one of his last nine starts. The 68.5 LOB% is a bit low, but his best estimator is still a worse than league average 4.23 xERA. The only appeals here are cost ($5.7K) and matchup (Tigers 68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Keller is the top projected value on DraftKings currently, but also has the riskiest weather forecast on the slate. James Kaprielian has walked more batter than he’s struck out in five of his 11 starts (5.3 K-BB%) and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE without completing six innings in any single start. He does not possess a single estimator below five, but does have one above six (6.11 FIP). He doesn’t even have a particularly friendly matchup (Mariners 108 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP), but cost ($5.5K) plus a favorable park and umpire give him the third best point per dollar value projection on DK tonight. J.P. Crawrod is also serving his suspension tonight. These are not attractive pay downs and more like pitcher punts, who should only be necessary if you’re planning on paying up for SP1 with a top offense.

Looking towards the mid-range arms tonight, Alex Cobb projects as one of the better values on the board. A run of some tough luck (injury and BABIP) has him costing less than $8K in San Francisco agains the Mets. The matchup is certainly not in his favor (117 wRC+, 18.8 K% vs RHP), but Cobb has been much better than the surface results suggest. A short IL trip and a couple of blow up starts have driven his ERA up to 5.61 over 25.2 innings, but the velocity spike from March has held, as he’s registered a 20.2 K-BB% to go with a dominant contact profile (69.4 GB%, 85.5 mph EV, 1.4% Barrels/BBE). Every single estimator is less than half his ERA, while his BABIP (.394) and strand rate (49.7%) have been outrageous. You rarely see a pitcher with a lower LOB% than GB%.

When we consider some high risk weather in Washington for Tyler Anderson (22.4 K%, 13.5 SwStr%, 4.3 BB% over five starts), whose facing an offense with just a 17.3 K% vs LHP anyway, the middle of the board is otherwise somewhat empty. Triston McKenzie (not yet confirmed), Nick Martinez and Jose Berrios are all pitchers with issues in their contact profiles facing quality offenses. Of course, this just means a lot of players are going to find a way to pay up for Cole or Wheeler tonight because almost everyone else is either low upside or high risk without enough reward, but there are also some sub-$7K arms who project for decent value.

Marco Gonzales is currently the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings and that’s almost entirely about cost ($5.3K) and matchup (A’s 94 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs LHP). Outside of three starts with multiple barrels allowed, Gonzales has allowed just three total in his other four. Even though this makes a contact profile with an 88 mph EV and 9.3% Barrels/BBE look a bit better, all estimators are still well more than a run and a half higher than his 3.08 ERA, as nine of his 22 runs are unearned with just a 4.7 K-BB%. Of course, you never know when one of those multiple barrel games are going to show up, but they have let him pitch fairly deep into games, hitting the 95 pitch mark in three of his last four starts.

Zack Greinke hasn’t struck out more than four in a start, but has only allowed more than two runs once outside Coors. Part of that is because every other aspect of his game remains intact with just a 2.2 BB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE. That being said, a 9.8% strikeout rate simply won’t cut it and a 3.4 HR/FB is still unsustainable even with changes to the ball and a power suppressing park. Consider a nearly two run gap between his FIP and xERA. In fact, he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half. However, a cost of just $4.8K on DraftKings for his return to Arizona (94 wRC+, 25.4 K% vs RHP) may be too cheap. He currently projects as the second best DK value on the board among confirmed pitchers tonight.

The Orioles are fairly content to let Jordan Lyles eat up a lot of innings very marginally with the goal of saving some younger arms. He’s actually been quite good recently (3 QS last 4), all of those at home though, in a park that plays much more pitcher friendly. He’s allowed just four runs (three earned) over 12.1 innings, striking out 12 of 48 with just two walks against the Yankees in Baltimore, but was lit up for 3 home runs in New York on April 26th. With a 13.1 K-BB% and fairly decent contact profile (7% Barrels/BBE), a 4.31 xERA is his only estimator above four. As awful as this matchup looks (Yankees 118 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP), the workload may make Lyles viable for $5.8K on this slate and few others are likely to have the fortitude necessary to roster him.

The middle of the board offers a few interesting high upside arms, who are in different situations than they were last year. Particularly, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb are now pitching for particularly analytically inclined teams (though the Yankees couldn’t fix the former last season). Heaney struck out 26.9% of the batters he faced last year, but allowed 29 home runs in just 129.2 innings. This is not a new phenomenon, but simply the story of his career. Still, there was nearly a two run difference between his ERA (5.83) and SIERA (3.84). Even his worst estimator (4.85 FIP) was a run better than his actual results. The Twins have some potent RHBs with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa both healthy. PlateIQ projections are pretty high on the Dodger staff finding the problem, as Heaney is currently one of the top projected pitchers on the slate.

Cobb rescued his career pitching for the Angels last year. He struck out a career high 24.9% with a 53.3 GB% and allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE. His 3.76 ERA was within half a run of all his non-FIP estimators. The Giants would probably be quite happy with those results, but there have been reports that his velocity was up to 97 mph this spring after averaging four mph less last year. Should he be able to hold that through the season or at least part of it, things could become exciting in San Francisco again this year. Even if he holds it tonight, Cobb could be a great value for less than $7K. The Padres have just an 87 wRC+ on the young season.

Patrick Sandoval (3-4.2) saw an early end to his 2021 season and has already had his first start of this season pushed back a few days, but struck out 25.9% of batters and even that doesn’t tell the complete story, as he established a 15.2 SwStr% with 51.1% of his contact on the ground with an 85.3 mph EV. He was a bit wild (9.9 BB%) and 21% of his fly balls did leave the yard, but his 3.62 ERA was within half a run of all his estimators. He faces a Miami lineup he should be able to handle today. On the opposing side, Jesus Luzardo has a live arm, but just didn’t have the results last season, though he did finish up the season striking out 16 of his last 38 batters with just two walks. On the season, an 11 BB%, 17.7 HR/FB and 10.1% Barrels/BBE did him in, despite an impressive 13.2 SwStr%. Some still believe there’s a path to stardom here, but there are some things that need to be fixed as even his best estimator was a 4.72 SIERA. Seven batters in the projected Angels lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs LHP since last season.

For those looking to drop a cheap secondary arm into your pitching spot on DraftKings, splitting the year between rotation and bullpen last year, Kuhl was done in by a 12% walk rate that had his 4.82 ERA within half a run of all of his estimators. However, as the lowest priced arm on DraftKings ($5.2K), he may be playable in GPPs simply due to the situation. Texas is a somewhat neutral park with a pitcher friendly umpiring situation. Daniel Lynch costs slightly more ($5.5K) and failed to come close to the prospect hype last season. His 5.69 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.82 FIP (11.0 HR/FB) to a 6.95 DRA and 6.32 xERA (90.7 mph EV, 10.4% Barrels/BBE) and the Cardinals smoked LHP last season (115 wRC+), but it’s another power suppressing park and he was/is a highly regarded prospect.

The most interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots tonight include Alex Cobb (vs Tigers), Jose Berrios (at Rangers) and Yusei Kikuchi (vs Rays). Overall, Cobb has a 28 K%, 57.7 GB% and 87.7 mph EV. Even with 2.6% Barrels/BBE, a 3.42 xERA is his worst estimator. This is the profile of an All-Star. Yet, with a 4.98 ERA, he’s been incredibly inconsistent. He’s gone beyond five innings in just four of nine starts, allowed fewer than three runs just three times and struck out fewer than five four times. The Tigers have a 91 wRC+ and 26.9 K% vs RHP. If we favor estimators over ERA, Cobb is a solid value, though higher risk than some might like.

Berrios may be the most inconsistent pitcher in the league, which sometimes makes him a solid GPP piece if you can embrace the risk. The overall package is a 26 K% and 6.4 BB%, but estimators range widly from a 3.40 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA (10.2% Barrels/BBE). He has as many outings allowing four runs (four) as quality starts. He’s struck out eight or more four times, but five or fewer five times. The Rangers offer a 90 wRC+ and 26.1 K%. Three of the first four batters in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Kikuchi has a 3.67 ERA that nearly matches his 3.71 SIERA and a 51.6 GB% has helped him avoid the full brunt of a 91.2 mph EV, though a 23.6 HR/FB (4.40 FIP) balances out a .228 BABIP. Simply, what makes him attractive is Tampa Bay’s 28.7 K% vs LHP. If you’re in need of a sub-$7K SP2 on DraftKings, Caleb Smith has a 27.1 K% and the Dodgers have just a 97 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs LHP. Of course, there are issues when it comes to walks and power, which is why he’s so cheap with an elevated strikeout rate. Jurickson Kowar, Tony Santillan and Zach Thompson are guys who struck out the world at AAA for about a month, but are in tough spots without their minor league success translating to major league success yet. Kowar and Thompson have not been confirmed yet.

High upside spots (as defined by opposing strikeout rates) not belonging to top end pitching tonight find Alex Cobb (vs Tampa Bay), J.A. Happ (vs Texas), Nick Pivetta (vs Tigers) and Jorge Lopez (at Seattle). Two of these pitchers are carrying fraudulent ERAs which somewhat tank their value around $8K a piece. Happ has completed seven innings in consecutive start and allowed just five runs over four of them this year. His 1.96 ERA is full of misdirection though. He’s struck out just 13 of 87 batters (7.1 SwStr%) with just two of his six Barrels (9.0%) leaving the yard. His SIERA and xFIP exceed five, his DRA is above six. Surface results are simply the product of a .154 BABIP, 86.4 LOB% and 6.1 HR/FB. The projected Texas lineup offers three 30%+ strikeout rates vs LHP right in the middle of the order, three through five. Pivetta’s 2.81 ERA is a farce too. The strikeouts are fine (24%, 10.5 SwStr%), but he’s walked 16.3% of batters faced and has allowed just three Barrels and one HR, despite a 90.9 mph EV and 33.3 GB%. One quarter of his contact has been line drives. The results are a product of a .233 BABIP, 79.1 LOB% and 4.0 HR/FB. His SIERA and DRA both exceed five. The Detroit lineup (projected) includes four batters above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019. Both should be fine, but may not offer much value at current cost.

Lopez is missing bats at an acceptable rate (21.6 K%, 10.6 SwStr%) and has probably gotten a bit unlucky that all six of his Barrels (9.2%) have left the yard (30 HR/FB). His 5.05 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator above five. There’s a chance he can be a useful secondary DraftKings piece, but the Barrels (9.4% career) have always been a problem and while the lineup for Seattle (projected) includes five above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019, it also includes four of the first five batters with at least a .200 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Still, Lopez gets a significant park bump and costs just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Cobb entered his last start with a 6.28 ERA, but had actually struck out 21 of 68 batters with a 16.1 SwStr%. He’d allowed just two Barrels (5%) with a 53.8 GB%. His BABIP was .436. His worst estimator was a 3.81 xERA. All other estimators were more than half a run below that. The Angels have him cutting down his sinker to one-third of his offerings, splitting the difference between splitters and curves. Surely an intelligent manager like Joe Maddon could see that the Alex Cobb breakout was just around the corner, but after allowing hits to six of the first 12 Rangers he faced, Maddon had seen enough. Cobb was removed after two innings. He didn’t really have it with just a 5.9 SwStr% and five line drives in that game, but a 4.13 xERA is still his only estimator above three and a half. This is all BABIP. Four hundred and sixty-nine points of it. However, he also seems to have lost the trust of his manager and has averaged just 18 batters per start. He costs $8K or less and just one of nine batters in the Tampa Bay lineup (projected) is below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Paying down for pitching might be a viable strategy tonight, as we’re finding some of the higher upside spots on the board landing on pitchers costing $8K or less. We envy matchups with the Rockies (especially on the road), Rangers and Rays (purely on strikeouts) on this 10 game slate. Those spots fall to Alex Wood, Cole Irvin and Alex Cobb tonight.

Wood has struck out 11 of 40 batters faced (13.9 SwStr%) with a 63 GB% and just one walk through two starts. Alex Wood has also faced the Marlins down a couple of key RHBs twice. The Rockies offer just as much if not more futility, but actually have some RH power in the lineup (Story, Cron) and have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Wood also costs more than $8K on either site and is not a pitcher we expect to go much further than twice through the lineup. Irvin, meanwhile, is in a high upside spot in Tampa Bay. It’s a negative run environment and six of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs LHP since 2019 with only a few dangerous bats. He showed some upside in March that didn’t carry over to his first few starts of the regular season, but has been much better since. He’s since struck out 12 of 48 batters with just one run allowed over 11.1 innings, but he’s also faced the Tigers and Orioles. He fits the potential sleeper box as a SP2 on DraftKings for just $7.2K if ownership is going to be low enough.

Cobb looks like the real potential gem here and possibly the top pitching value on the board. A peak at the 6.28 ERA might suggest that this is the same guy from his Baltimore years, but he’s actually struck out 21 of 68 batters with a 16.1 SwStr%. Walks? Just 7.4%. Hard contact? Two Barrels (5%) and a 53.8 GB%. It’s that silly BABIP (.436). His worst estimator is a 3.81 xERA. All other estimators are more than half a run below even that. The Angels have him cutting down his sinker to one-third of his offerings, splitting the difference between spitters and curves. Meanwhile, the Rangers do have a 104 wRC+ vs RHP, but a projected lineup that includes just three batters below a 23 K% vs RHP since 2019. Cobb should see a turnaround overall if these numbers sustain and that could start in a high upside spot tonight.

While the hype is on an NL West matchup tonight, the more interesting pitching matchup may be in an AL West one. It’s just two starts, but Alex Cobb seems to be throwing his splitter type pitch again to great success. Perhaps greater success than he’s ever had. He’s thrown it 45.4% of the time with a 46.7 Whiff% and .214 xwOBA. As a result, he’s struck out 17 of 49 with two walks, just two Barrels and 16 of his 29 batted balls on the ground. That said, just two batters in the projected lineup (Straw, Maldonado) are below a 119 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs RHP since 2019, while batters from either side of the plate are above a .390 xwOBA against Cobb over that same time span. This looks like a different pitcher though and Cobb costs nearly $2K less than his opponent on DraftKings tonight. He’s $1.4K more on FanDuel, where’s the second most expensive pitcher, but may still be viable on a small slate.

Critian Javier arrived on the scene with enormous minor league strikeout rates last year and proceeded to fan 25.4% of the 214 batters he faced with just an 8.7 SwStr% that screamed regression. To follow up, he’s struck out 11 of his first 35 with a 9.3 SwStr%. His 18.4 CStr% isn’t out of line either, so it’s not like he’s getting an abundance of looking strikes. It just can’t keep up. His first strike rate is below 45% as well. How is he doing any of this? Of course, neither of the luck sack’s two Barrels have left the yard, while the fact that he has allowed just two Barrels with a 28.6 GB% and 91 mph EV in the first place is just more perplexing. Anyway, the point is…Angel’s bats (114 wRC+ vs RHP), particularly in the top half of the lineup, are worthy of your attention tonight. With an implied run line below four and a half runs, they might not be on many radars (as far under the radar as anyone can fly on a five game slate anyway). Javier has smothered RHBs in his career (.221 wOBA, .225 xwOBA), but LHBs have been about average against him (.317, .307). The LH bats you’re looking for here are Shohei Ohtani (121 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since 2019) and Jared Walsh (135 wRC+, .291 ISO). Neither is cheap, but the lack of high end pitching tonight, should allow for a fit here.