Alfredo Simon Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Alfredo Simon has allowed at least three runs (not all earned) in nine straight starts, exceeding five innings only three times this year. LHBs have a .382 wOBA and 33.3 Hard% against him since last season, while RHBs have hit him at a .344 wOBA clip too. The Cardinals have the 2nd highest run projection tonight (5.39) against a pitcher with an 8.94 ERA and 6.89 FIP. This is an expensive lineup, but it's unlikely players can go wrong with exposure anywhere in it. The top of this order hold to of the top IF bats tonight in Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and a more affordable Aledmys Diaz (151 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015). Matt Adams (batting 3rd) might be the top value player here for less than $4K. He has a 158 wRC+ and .248 ISO vs RHP this season. Jhonny Peralta is still the minimum on FanDuel. Stack up your Cardinals as you can afford him.

Combine the best park with one of the worst pitchers in baseball and you get a nearly seven run projection virtually regardless of the offense. The easy answer is just to fit as many Rockies into the lineup as you can and it shouldn't bee too hard with a lack of high priced pitching options tonight. Alfredo Simon has allowed a .383 wOBA to LHBs since last season, but also a .341 wOBA to RHBs. Carlos Gonzalez (144 wRC+, .298 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Nolan Arenado (129 wRC+, .307 ISO vs RHP since 2015), and Charlie Blackmon (110 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are bats you build around tonight. Story (105 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP) loses some value with a lineup drop and LeMahieu (94 wRC+, .114 ISO vs RHP since 2015) gains some. Every Rocky you can fit in the lineup has value tonight even at some of the highest costs on the board.

Alfredo Simon has been noticeably bad this year and his start today is likely to draw a lot of attention from the DFS community. Simon has a wOBA this year over 0.400 against both LHB and RHB. While the usual LHBs of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and Seth Smith are great plays, Leonys Martin is quietly a top-5 hitter for the Mariners against right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 128 vs. RHP. Martin will be more noticeable since he is leading off today, but he is still a solid OF play.

Alfredo Simon is one of the worst SP's in baseball which means you always want to target opposing bats whenever he takes the mound. Tonight that would be the Pirates, especially their lone LH bat, Gregory Polanco as Simon has a .384 wOBA allowed to lefties. He's not much better against RH bats (.333 wOBA) so David Freese (leading off for John Jaso who gets the night off), Andrew McCutchen (batting second), and Starling Marte (batting clean up) are excellent targets as well. Juan Nicasio is an intriguing GPP SP option facing the Reds (25th against RHP the last two seasons) but it is a hitters park so there is some risk involved. Nicasio is extremely vulnerable to LH bats (.392 wOBA allowed the past two seasons) so Billy Hamilton (batting second) and Jay Bruce (batting clean up) are secondary options from the Reds. Joey Votto, who would have been an elite option, will not play.

Alfredo Simon pitched into the 8th inning in his last start or more than he had in his previous three starts combined. His ERA still sits over nine with a 28.6 HR/FB. He has allowed a .384 wOBA to LHBs since last season, so it's unfortunate that the Pirates are down one lefty bat (Jaso), but that immediately makes Polanco at least interesting despite the high cost and just a 114 wRC+ and .148 ISO vs RHP since last season. RHBs have put a .333 wOBA on Simon since 2015 and shouldn't be avoided as the Pirates still have a 4.74 run projection that's near the top of the board, but the difficulty is in finding the value here as the best hitters, McCutchen (136 wRC+, .191 vs RHP) and Marte (129 wRC+, .160 ISO vs RHP) are two of the costliest on the board. Another issue is a questionable early forecast for this game. You'll want to keep an eye on Kevin's update later to make sure this game is going to be played.

Alfredo Simon has been getting pummeled and is averaging just three innings per start. While he's not really getting anyone out this year, RHBs in particular have a .386 wOBA against him since last season. This makes Alex Presley in the two spot a great punt OF option for the minimum on DraftKings. He has a 38.5 Hard% over the last week. Switch hitter Jonathan Villar has not had a ton of success against RHP (98 wRC+ since 2015) and is more costly, but does have a 154 wRC+ over the last week. Braun, Lucroy, and Carter are equally expensive, but all have been above average hitters against RHP since last season with a wRC above 125 over the last week. Batted balls by Chris Carter are leaving the bat at an average of 94.6 mph this season.

Jaso in the last year has a wOBA of 0.354 against RHP. Simon can chop his 2016 HR/9 (8.10) in half and he would still be worth targeting with left-handed batters. Jaso is no Anthony Rizzo, but he has still displayed modest power finishing 2015 with an ISO of 0.107 against right-handed pitchers.

Zobrist is getting the day off and Tommy La Stella will be leading off for the Cubs against a below average Alfredo Simon. On the other side, Scott Schebler will get an opportunity to leadoff after hitting his first HR of the year yesterday.

Alfredo Simon may have fooled some people with a low ERA a couple of years ago, but has a career HR/FB above 11% and a 29.4 career Hard%. He combines that with a 16.0 K%, which should leave the Cubs in a great spot tonight. The top three are above average vs RHP, but the real threats are Rizzo (147 wRC+, .259 ISO, 34.2 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Bryant (211 wRC+, .211 ISO, 37.4 Hard%). Miguel Montero is also an average bat against RHPs at a reasonable cost at Catcher.