Andre Ethier Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
Jake Arrieta walked five in first post-season start, LHBs had a .354 wOBA this year
Both the Cubs (4.81) and Dodgers (4.69) sport implied run lines about a run higher than the ALCS participants.While Jake Arrieta occasionally generated strikeouts and weak ground balls this year, he struggled to do both of those things often at the same time this season. Then, when it looked like he might be putting it all together, he suffered a hamstring injury that limited him to just 10.1 September innings. Despite not allowing a single run, his only post-season outing was not pretty, as he walked five of the 20 batters he faced with four strikeouts and just three ground balls. While the lack of faith Joe Maddon must have in the Chicago bullpen at this point may be the one positive for Arrieta in terms of workload tonight, he'd have to pitch exceptionally well with his team facing elimination. Arrieta had some extreme splits this season. He stifled RHBs with a .266 wOBA, 48.7 GB%, and 26.9 Hard%, but LHBs had a .354 wOBA, 40.5 GB% and 32.7 Hard%. While Corey Seager's absence makes this Dodger lineup a bit less dangerous from the LH side, Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .323 ISO vs RHP) may be the highest upside bat on the board. The lineup for LA is not yet confirmed, but Curtis Granderson has three career HRs and a 1.081 OPS in 40 career PAs against Arrieta, more than twice as many PAs as any other Dodger, though Andre Ethier had a 113 wRC+ and .226 ISO vs RHP this season if he gets the nod. Ethier homered last night and costs the minimum on FanDuel. Yasmani Grandal (106 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) also has a HR and a double in 11 PAs against Arrieta, though he did not start last night either. Kevin's forecast calls for 15-20 mph sustained winds with 25 mph gusts out towards center, which could give a generous boost to power hitters in this game. It appears to be Jim Wolf's turn to call balls and strikes tonight according to the umpire rotation available at TrueBlueLA.com (a popular Dodgers blog). According to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors, available on RotoGrinders, in 287 games, batters have a 19.4 K% and 8.1 BB% with Wolf calling pitches. That's good for a 0.95 K-Boost and 1.05 BB-Boost, which could potentially add more value to the bats in this game.
No lineup is projected within half a run of the Dodgers (5.6) against Archie Bradley
The Dodgers are projected for a slate high 5.6 runs tonight without another offense within half a run of them. LHBs have a .364 wOBA against Archie Bradley since last season and batters from either side have hit the ball hard over 37% of the time against him. This entire lineup projects strongly, even the returning Andre Ethier (146 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $2.3K on FanDuel. Corey Seager (164 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP career) might be the top overall bat on the slate. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015), might be an affordable contrarian way to gain exposure to this lineup, but is a potent bat in the eighth spot. Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Yasmani Grandal (117 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are top bats at their positions.