Andrew Cashner Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While it would seem beneficial to each team to have a RHP on the mound with the wind blowing out to left at Fenway tonight, Jakob Junis has allowed 13 of his 24 HRs to RHBs this year, while Cashner has allowed 13 of his 15 to same-handed batters. The Red Sox own the highest implied run line on the board (6.24), so bombs away. This much is obvious. However, Cashner has allowed 20 runs (18 earned) in 23.1 innings since being traded, facing each division opponent once. The Royals are not a productive offense vs RHP (88 wRC+, 11 HR/FB), but the top half of the lineup does feature three RHBs who have been proficient against RHP over the last calendar year in Whit Merrifield (119 wRC+, .153 ISO), Hunter Dozier (130 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Jorge Soler (127 wRC+, .290 ISO). The Royals are merely a middle of the board offense tonight (4.76) and are unlikely to be as highly regarded in GPPs as their opponents.

Andrew Cashner is coming off his best of three starts for the Red Sox, against the Yankees (6.2 IP – 3 ER – 1 BB – 6 K) after struggling against the Blue Jays and Orioles (11 IP – 9 ER – 4 HR). A .275 BABIP may not hold up at Fenway. It’s a tougher park than Camden and though he’s generated exactly half his contact on the ground, 42.2% of his contact has been above a 95 mph EV with just a 17% strikeout rate. Cashner has shown a significant reverse split over the last 12 months (RHBs .368 wOBA/.389 xwOBA), which really favors Tommy Pham (133 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). However, there are a number of very affordable bats in the Tampa Bay lineup, who may have great value in this spot, such as leadoff man Ji-Man Choi (136 wRC+, .206 ISO), costing less than $3K on FanDuel and a very reasonable $4K on DraftKings. The Rays are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.07).

Andrew Cashner struck out seven batters for only the third time this season in his second start for Boston, but it’s ironic that part of his appeal may have been contact and HR suppression (49.1 GB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), yet he’s allowed four of his 15 HRs on the season in just 11 innings for the Sox. And that was against the Blue Jays and his old team, the Orioles. The Red Sox hammered the Yankees early and often last night. Tonight might be the visitor’s turn. The frightening thing here is Cashner’s reverse split over the last calendar year that’s seen RHBs hammer out a .362 wOBA and .381 xwOBA when facing him. One thing the Yankees have in abundance is RHBs who can hit same-handed pitching hard. In 16 innings, the Yankees have scored 11 runs against Cashner this year with three HRs. No Yankee batter in tonight’s projected lineup is below a 117 wRC+ over the last week. With the forecast projecting an additional boost in an already extremely positive run environment, it’s difficult to find a poor value in the bunch with the Yankees atop the board tonight at 5.74 implied runs. The best Yankee RHB against RHP over the last calendar year has been Luke Voit (154 wRC+, .249 ISO). Aaron Judge’s numbers are a bit disappointing and deceptive (122 wRC+, .183 ISO). He has a 50.5 Hard% against RHP and .396 xwOBA against them over that span.

Andrew Cashner has had a rough year with a 5.04 ERA , 4.91 xFIP, and 5.02 SIERA with a 8.2% K-BB and 1.54 HR/9. His Statcast numbers are even worse as he has a .372 xwOBA allowed, .521 xSLG allowed, 10.6% barrels/BBE and 91 MPH aEV. The Astros are missing three of their stars (Correa, Altuve, Springer) but still have plenty of good options today vs. Cashner. Alex Bregman (.391 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Michael Brantley (.364), Josh Reddick (.336), Derek Fisher (.321), and Yuli Gurriel (.293) are all good options. Josh Reddick has been the ‘Stros hottest hitter with a .386 xwOBA allowed over the past 10 days, followed closely by Derek Fisher with a .374 mark. Fisher looks to be arguably the best value in the lineup, projected to leadoff at just $4.1k on Draftkings. Jack Mayfield (123 wRC+ in AAA this year) is also an intriguing play at just $2.7k on Draftkings. The Astros have a healthy 5.62 implied line vs. Cashner and the Orioles this afternoon.

Andrew Cashner has allowed eight runs over his last 11 innings, but those two starts were against the Yankees and at Coors, in which the latter of, he struck out five without a walk. Over a seven start span, Cashner is rocking an 18.2 K-BB% with a 52.1 GB%. The improvement has come from just about completely ditching a useless sinker, which batters hammered last year. This hasn’t turned Cashner into an All-Star. His ERA is still 4.15 with a 3.84 FIP over this span and his 49.5% 95+ mph aEV for the season is still worst on the board, but the improvement does make him useful in certain spots at the right price and that appears to be the situation tonight. Cashner costs less than $7K on either site with the Orioles hosting the Giants tonight and makes for a reasonable compliment to a higher priced arm. This is a solidly below average offense with a 75 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% and 12.3 HR/FB vs RHP.

Andrew Cashner has a 25.8 K% over the last month, which supported by an 11.4 SwStr%. He’s allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, including just two against the Yankees last time out. This is not a fluke either as his 3.67 SIERA and 3.41 FIP support his 3.13 ERA over the last month. To be clear, the majority of the improvement is in the peripherals, as he still has a .339 xwOBA over the last 30 days and 91.3 mph aEV (50.3% 95+ mph EV) for the season. Still, a much improved strikeout rate with a 51.7 GB% can mitigate a lot of damage even with that contact profile. The main change appears to be that he’s ditched a sinker (34.3% to 4.3%) that batters had a .401 wOBA (.398 xwOBA) against last season. In it’s place, he’s throwing more four-seamers (44.3%, .350 wOBA, .390 xwOBA this year) and changeups (22.2%, .250 wOBA, .327 xwOBA). Nobody’s mistaking the four-seamer for a quality pitch here, but basically anything was going to be an improvement over that sinker. The Yankees have a 108 wRC+, 12.3 HR/FB and 18 HR/FB vs RHP. This is still a tough spot in a tough park. However, the wind is blowing in from left tonight and Cashner is the cheapest arm on the board on DraftKings ($5.6K).

Andrew Cashner has been a ground ball machine (54.2%) with just a 10.8 LD%, but a 91.6 aEV worst on the board. He’s the only pitcher on the board allowing half of his contact (50.6%) above a 95 mph EV. Of course, despite the six strikeouts last time out, he has just a 13.6 K%. He’s allowed five HRs in five starts, two in his only home start this season. The White Sox have owned a fairly healthy 18.4 HR/FB vs RHP this season. Currently, the White Sox provide the second highest implied run line on the board outside Coors tonight (5.07). While Chicago bats are priced more optimally on FanDuel, where Jose Abreu (102 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Yonder Alonso (100 wRC+, .191 ISO), and Welington Castillo (100 wRC+, .177 ISO) remain below $3K, Yoan Moncada (114 wRC+, .207 ISO) is very play worthy at a higher cost. He has been crushing the ball this season (95.2 mph aEV), which matches up nicely with Cashner's aEV, and batters from either side of the plate are above both a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Cashner over the last 12 months.

While most of the attention is going to be on Coors tonight, the highest implied run line outside Colorado resides in Tampa Bay (5.25), despite a firmly negative run environment. Why might that be? Andrew Cashner’s 5.31 ERA does not even accurately reflect how bad he’s been this year. His 6.39 FIP is a full run higher than that. His 6.44 FIP still even higher. Cashner has just one quality start in four this year and that was against a poor Toronto offense. He has the worst strikeout rate on the board over the last two years (13.2%), this year (10.1%), on the road since last year (12.2%), and over the last two weeks (6.7%). His .427 xwOBA, 92.8 mph aEV and 52.2% 95+ mph EV are all worst on the board for this season as well. Also worst on the board, his 36.2 Hard-Soft% in 2019, while the Rays have the second best split on the board in that category tonight (33.2% - Brewers 39.8% vs LHP is best).

This is an under-rated Tampa Bay lineup. Each of the first five batters in it are above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP over the last 12 months, while the sixth and seventh batters (Mike Zunino & Kevin Kiermaier) are above a .200 ISO against them. Tommy Pham is the only one of those first seven below a 140 wRC+ over the last week, but does so with a 53.9 Hard%. Ji-Man Choi (144 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (138 wRC+, .250 ISO) have been the overall top bats against RHP over the last year. There are very few soft spots or poor values in this lineup.

Andrew Cashner could have some issues tonight. Despite not allowing a run against the Blue Jays last time out, he hasn’t struck out more than he’s walked in either start this year and his .398 xwOBA is highest on the board by more than 20 points. While the A’s haven’t hit their stride offensively yet (91 wRC+ vs RHP), they project five bats in the starting lineup with at least a 129 wRC+, .200 ISO and 40% hard hit rate against RHP over the last calendar year. Tonight, they get an environmental boost in Baltimore against a pitcher who has allowed batters from either side of the plate a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .340 over the last year. It should be no surprise that Oakland owns the highest implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.38). An interesting bat to look at who might not be on many radars is Ramon Laureano, even if he’s lower in the lineup. He now has a career 129 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel.

Safeco is not a spot that screams offense, but Andrew Cashner and the Baltimore bullpen amplifies that sound. As such, the Mariners have a 4.86 implied run line tonight against a pitcher who has allowed batters from either side of the plate a .350 or better wOBA and xwOBA with a below average ground ball rate this year. It's fairly easily the top four in this lineup players should want their exposure too. That group includes, in order, Mitch Haniger (138 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP), Jean Segura (116 wRC+, .119 ISO), Robinson Cano (120 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (140 wRC+, .255 ISO).