Andrew Heaney Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game update: Rangers will open the roof of Globe Life Field one Thursday

Potential high upside spots not married to top pitchers, as determined by opposing strikeout rates include Andrew Heaney in Seattle, Lance McCullers Jr. in Tampa Bay, Madison Bumgarner vs the Rockies, Marcus Stroman in Philadelphia, Nathan Eovaldi in Texas and Pablo Lopez in Washington. We can immediately cross Stroman and his 16 K% off the list, even if the Phillies might offer more strikeouts than you might expect, but each of the other five feel like viable mid-range arms tonight.

It might surprise you to see that McCullers has only exceeded a 27 K% once in his career. At just a quarter of batters faced this year with a 10.6 SwStr%, he’s merely been league average in that department, but he’s generated 54.2% of contact on the ground as well. The projected lineup for the Rays includes six batters above a 24 K% vs RHP since 2019. One concern is a 13.1 BB% that could run up the pitch count quickly. McCullers has averaged just 21 batters per start. Bumgarner may not be as washed as many like to think. The velocity and peripherals (16.1 K-BB%) have rebounded somewhat. A 28.2 GB% and 92.2 mph EV are quite concerning and his Ace days may be well behind him, but he may still have enough left in the tank to put up a quality start against the Rockies. Lopez and Eovaldi are around $8K each. Lopez with a 21.4 K-BB% has allowed more than two runs in just one of five starts. He adds an above average ground ball rate and just an 85.8 mph EV. A 2.93 ERA is within a half run of all estimators except a 3.46 xERA. Four of eight projected Nationals have a 25.9 K% or higher vs RHP. One concern is that Lopez does seem to have a rather large home/road split in his career. Eovaldi has exceeded a 13 SwStr% in four of five starts. The high ground ball rate (53.6%) and low exit velocity (86.6 mph) have generated just three Barrels without a HR yet. They will eventually come, but the strikeout rate might increase too, further improving estimators that are all already below his 3.77 ERA. The Texas offense hasn’t been awful, but there are four batters in the middle of the projected lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs RHP since 2019.

Heaney is showing some breakout traits and may be the top value on the slate if those sustain tonight. He has faced the toughest offenses in the American League (White Sox, Blue Jays, Twins, Astros) and come away with a 36.7 K% that would be a career high by nearly eight points. His 47.6 GB% is more than eight points above his career rate too. Elevated hard contact has been an issue in the past, but he’s allowed just three Barrels so far. Spiking your strikeout and ground ball rates keeps the ball out of the air. The only issue is that it doesn’t immediately appear as if anything in his arsenal has changed or his usage of it, but the Mariners have six batters in the projected lineup with a 25.9 K% or worse vs LHP since 2019. Heaney costs $8.7K on FanDuel, but can be paired with either Cole or Bieber for just $6.8K on DraftKings.

Andrew Heaney has struck out at least six in six of eight starts. In fact, he’s struck out exactly six five times. The 17.9 K-BB% isn’t far off what he’s done over the last few years. The 37.1 GB% is a point and a half off his career rate. What has changed is that he’s just about half way to his innings total from last year with just one-third the Barrels and one-tenth the HRs. The 4.5 HR/FB isn’t sustainable, but a 4.12 SIERA, 4.08 xFIP and 4.04 xERA are all very close to his 3.89 ERA because he’s also only stranded 67.1% of runners. The ERA may be where it belongs, even if it didn’t take the most conventional route. Adding even more upside tonight is a Texas offense with a 65 wRC+ and 19 K-BB% vs LHP. In fact, the projected lineup for the Rangers does not contain a single batter above a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. A much more enticing matchup is why Heaney finds himself costing $400 less than his opponent on FanDuel tonight. The third most expensive pitcher overall, facing the Texas lineup gives Heaney one of the highest upsides on the board.

Andrew Heaney is sporting an elite strikeout rate at 28.9%, but he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher (32.8 GB%), who often struggles with the HR ball (18.2 HR/FB, 10% Barrels/BBE). He’s allowed 20 runs over his last 19.1 innings and has a .368 xwOBA over the last month. He struck out eight of 25 A’s he faced in his only start against them in late June, but also allowed five runs. This Oakland offense has a 115 wRC+ against LHP this year with just a 19.3 K% and 27.2 Hard-Soft%. A 5.1 implied run line has the A’s just 10th on the board tonight and could see them go under-owned in this spot. RHBs have just a .306 wOBA and .316 xwOBA against Heaney this year, but also 13 of his HRs allowed. Matt Olson (96 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP) is an interesting play here as LHBs have a .381 wOBA (.328 xwOBA) and six HRs in just 88 PAs. Marcus Semien (142 wRC+, .215 ISO), Matt Chapman (126 wRC+, .297 ISO), Mark Canha (121 wRC+, .242 ISO) and even Khris Davis (143 wRC+, .260 ISO) should all have some value in this spot.