Andrew Moore Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Andrew Moore throws a lot of strikes. He has a 4.3 BB% at AAA this season and a 3.1 BB% in six starts (38 innings) at the major league level this year. The biggest difference is that his 21.6 K% has been nearly perfectly cut in half (10.5%) at the major league level. Perhaps he throws too many strikes. Though still an extremely small sample, his 91.2 mph aEV and 45.3% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the board with nobody else being above 40%. He's allowed at least three ERs in every start with a high of four strikeouts in the majors. Houston is the fifth of five teams projected above five runs by Vegas tonight (5.29). The fact that RHBs have made hard contact at a higher rate than LHBs against Moore (38% vs 31.7%) plays further in Houston's favor tonight, though batters from either side have a wOBA above .350. Despite the high price tags, George Springer (139 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Altuve (164 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) must be strongly considered against a pitcher who doesn't miss many bats and allows that much hard contact in the air (RHBs 34.6 GB%, LHBs 16.7%). Additional Houston exposure would depend on how the lineup shakes out. Someone like Marwin Gonzalez (153 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP), who is SS eligible, could have some value for just $3K on DraftKings with a favorable lineup spot.

The New York Yankees (117 sOPS+), Cleveland Indians (113 sOPS+) and Arizona Diamondbacks (108 sOPS+) are all top seven offenses against fly ball pitchers this year according to Baseball-Reference. The Yankees have been slumping since the All-Star break (66 wRC+) with a hectic schedule and suffer a significant park dowgrade in Safeco, but Andrew Moore has allowed eight HRs in four starts. Didi Gregorius has been the only above average bat among regulars over the last week (148 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%). Brett Gardner has a 102 wRC+, but just a 13.6 Hard%. He did homer last night though and LHBs have a .358 wOBA (37.5 Hard%) against Moore so far. Marco Estrada has a league average K% over the last month (five starts), but just a 0.0 K-BB%. Let that sink in for a minute. RHBs now have a .324 wOBA and 34.5 Hard% against him since last season, making Edwin Encarnacion (127 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2016) the most interesting bat in the lineup against him. He was a favorite of the Trendspotting article today, which mentions Estrada's 8.6% Barrels/BBE (88 mph aEV). The Diamondbacks face Max Scherzer, who has extended his dominance to the batted ball realm in recent starts. He has allowed just one HR with a -1.4 Hard-Soft% over the last month. While not an endorsement to use Arizona bats tonight, Diamondback prowess against fly ball pitchers could be part of the motive to fade in favor of Chris Sale or another of several strong options tonight.

Andrew Moore continues to put together solid outings at the Major League level, pitching at least six innings in each of his first three starts and allowing no more than three earned runs. Although he has recorded just 10 strikeouts in these aforementioned starts, Moore should be due for some positive regression in that department since he consistently posted a strikeout rate in the range of 23-24% in the highest levels of the Minor Leagues with an elite walk rate that seems to have carried over to the Majors thus far, evidenced by a masterful 2.4% mark. One potential issue with Moore is that he allows a massive amount of fly balls (54.4% FB%), which is absolutely fine as long as he continues to surrender hard contact at about a league-average rate or better like has in his first three outings. Moore's fly ball "problems" look to be safe for at least one more start as the Chicago White Sox only rank 23rd in ISO against right-handed pitching with a .155 ISO as a team. Their lack of power is also accompanied by ranks of 25th in wRC+ and wOBA while striking out against righties at a 22.4% clip, good for roughly the league-average. So clearly, this all means that Moore finds himself in a great run prevention spot with the potential for some positive regression to his lowly 12.2% strikeout rate as well. With that said, it's certainly possible that he allows a home run or two, but the White Sox are highly unlikely to manage to draw many walks or accrue tons of baserunners in between those potential long balls, giving us a really nice floor with Moore this afternoon and a much higher ceiling than he has exhibited to this point through three starts.

Rick Porcello (6.28) and Aaron Nola (6.26) are virtually tied for tonight's top strikeout projection according to the Daily K Predictor as are Marcus Stroman (5.6) and Masahiro Tanaka (5.5) for the spots behind him. These are probably the four pitchers most worthy of players' consideration tonight. The RotoGrinders Player Projections have a somewhat similar assessment, projecting Aaron Nola as the top pitcher, slightly ahead of Masahiro Tanaka and Ivan Nova with Rick Porcello absent from the top four. He does have an ERA above five with just league average estimators. While the peripherals are still strong (16.7 K-BB%), both he and Tanaka have had hard contact issues this year. Where Tanaka has added lots of strikeouts recently (27.6 K%, 16.8 SwStr% over the last month) and has not allowed a HR in two straight starts, Porcello's issues have persisted. Marcus Stroman is one of two qualified pitchers with a 60% ground ball rate this season and while his strikeout rate has been inconsistent, he enters the game with a league average rate. His matchup, at Yankee Stadium (126 wRC+ at home, 119 wRC+ vs RHP) may be less intimidating than it looks. Although Aaron Judge remains, many middle of the order Yankee bats are among the injured. Aaron Nola might be the most talented pitcher on the slate. He's facing a low power Pittsburgh offense (87 wRC+ on the road, 91 wRC+ vs RHP) and has showcased his potential over his last two outings (14.1 IP – 9 H – 3 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 17 K – 56 BF – 48.5 GB% – -3.1 Hard-Soft%), while he's been a solid contact manager throughout the season (86.4 mph aEV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE). If looking to compliment your higher priced pitcher with a cheaper on DraftKings, Andrew Moore has had at least a 19.7 K% at every stop in the minors with a 3.9 BB% at AAA this season. He located well in his first major league start (7 IP - 3 ER - 0 BB - 4K) and can probably get away with a few mistakes as a fly ball pitcher in Safeco facing the Royals (86 wRC+ on the road, 87 wRC+ vs RHP).