Andrew Triggs Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Andrew Triggs has a 24.6 K% and 3.99 SIERA that are two of the better marks on the board tonight, but his ground balls (47.2%) and swinging strikes (9.7%) are down this year, while he's allowing the absolute hardest contact on the board in all three areas (90.4 mph aEV, 13.6% Barrels/BBE, 44.5% 95+ mph EV). As such, the Blue Jays have a 4.87 implied run line that's second highest on the board in one of just two positive run environments in play tonight in Toronto. The top of this lineup has been very potent against RHP over the last calendar year: Curtis Granderson (142 wRC+, .274 ISO), Josh Donaldson (136 wRC+, .257 ISO), Justin Smoak (125 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Yangervis Solarte (120 wRC+, .213 ISO).

David Price, Jeff Samardzija, Cole Hamels, and Chris Archer are the only pitchers on the board to average six innings or more per start over the last calendar year. None of them have reached that level this season. In fact, Samardija is one of three guys (Andrew Triggs and Eric Lauer) averaging less than five innings per start. The highest average innings per start this year belong to Kevin Gausman, Chad Bettis, Matt Boyd, and James Shields. Expect to see a lot of bullpens tonight. With Eric Lauer averaging a board low four innings per start, the San Diego bullpen could see the most work, but they've actually been one of the top units in the league (2.1 fWAR, 3.24 FIP, 16.7 K-BB% are all top six marks). They are the only active bullpen tonight which can make such a claim, though the pen has been a source of strength for the Red Sox (2 fWAR, 3.45 FIP, 17.7 K%), Pirates (1.6, 3.19, 16.1%) and Mariners (1.1, 3.91, 18.2%) as well. On the other end, the A's (4.48) and White Sox (4.16) have the lowest active bullpen FIPs tonight. Both have bottom eight K-BB% marks as well. The Tigers have a FIP above four (4.07) with the second worst K-BB (10.3%) in the majors, but Boyd has been working deep into games, as mentioned. With Max Fried a last minute replacement, who hasn't reached six innings in any outing at any level this year, the Atlanta bullpen should be noted as well. They have a 3.71 FIP, but with a 10.8 K-BB% that's third worst in baseball.

Andrew Triggs has missed enough bats with a high ground ball rate in the past, often making him a favorite of some sharp DFS mind. Although his ERA is well above his estimators, even those are poor this year and he’s failed to surpass 22 batters faced in any start. His swinging strike rate is down (8.4%), which makes this a dangerous setting for him. The Rangers aren’t a great offense, but they hit the ball hard (25 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). He has the highest Z-Contact% on the board too (93.3%). He's generated a 48.6 GB% against LHBs since last season with an xwOBA 53 points above his actual .302 mark and many of you already know where this is leading. Joey Gallo (121 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP since last season) adds a 46.1 Hard% and 55.1 FB% to his numbers with the platoon advantage. He has a 150 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and costs less than $4K on either site for an offense with the third highest implied run line (4.92) tonight. Shin-soo Choo (106 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Nomar Mazara (100 wRC+, .183 ISO) are both in the mid-$3K price range in a spot where the Rangers may be able to run if the choose on a Triggs/Lucroy combination (see our new Stolen Base Threat Ratings - premium subscribers - for more).

Andrew Triggs has a career 20.8 K% and 10.2 SwStr% to go along with a 51.1 GB% in 137.1 major league innings. That's an above average pitcher. He's increased both the strikeout rate (25.7%) and ground ball rate (58.1%) through three starts this season, but both his swinging strike rate (9.4%) and hard hit rate (37.2%) are not as strong. He faces a White Sox lineup with a 102 wRC+ and 14.6 HR/FB against RHP, but they were expected to be bad and have been overall in the last seven days (52 wRC+, 32.4 K%). Triggs is certainly an option at $8.5K or less on either site, but beware that he has yet to complete six innings yet and has faced exactly 22 batters in each start with a high of 96 pitches. Yoan Moncada (124 wRC+, .374 xwOBA, .216 ISO, 44.7 Hard% vs RHP career) might be the lone bat of interest here for just $3.6K on DraftKings. The A's tie for the top implied run line on the early slate, just above five. Carson Fulmer's issues stem from an inability to throw strikes, rather than hard contact though. He walked six last time out and has a 13.4 BB% in 44.2 major league innings. While his hard hit rate has been exactly 40% in each of this year's two starts, it's at 27.5% for his career. While RHBs have a .250 wOBA against him in his small sample of a career, the xwOBA is 118 points higher, essentially giving him no split at all by that metric. A 36.4 GB% has been closer to average in the minors. While the A's have five batters in the projected lineup all with a 125 or better wRC+ and .190+ ISO vs RHP since last season (Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce), it's been Davis (247 wRC+, 50 Hard%), Lowrie (246 wRC+, 43.5 Hard%), Chapman (168 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%) and Stephen Piscotty (226 wRC+, 45 Hard%) along with Mark Canha (191 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) who have all been smoking baseballs over the last week. They have a team 157 wRC+ over the last week (18.5 HR/FB). Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.

Andrew Triggs may be an arm of interest tonight. Results have been inconsistent, but his SwStr rate generally reaches double digits with a ground ball rate around 50%. That may be enough upside for a pitcher who costs $8K or less tonight in a favorable park in Seattle, against a decent offense, but one missing their top right-handed power bat. On the other side, Mike Leake has estimators almost double his 3.00 ERA through two starts and the A’s have been good. He has just a 4.7 SwStr% through two starts and LHBs had an xwOBA (.364) some 37 points above his actual rate last year. While he generally keeps the ball on the ground half the time against batters from either side, Matt Olsen (184 wRC+, .389 ISO vs RHP career) is tough to ignore, while Jed Lowrie (129 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Matt Joyce (128 wRC+, .253 ISO) both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKings.

We're seeing the back end of rotations on Monday night, where Charlie Morton can be considered the only established high strikeout pitcher. DraftKings pricing is particularly tough, where Morton (26.4 K%), along with Mike Clevinger (27.3 K%) and Tanner Roark (21.4 K%) each cost $9.9K or more. While Hyun-Jin Ryu and Taijuan Walker also boast a 21.4 K% from last season, the former rarely goes much more than five innings and the latter has a difficult matchup with the Dodgers, even if we're still counting on the humidor to under-value pitchers at this point in the season. Morton pitches in the most negative run environment in baseball the last few years and faces a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup. However, he had a reverse split last season, striking out more LHBs (32.8%), while generating more ground balls (56.1 GB%, 0.4 Hard-Soft%) against RHBs. That may bring down his upside somewhat, but he still struck out righties at a league average pace last year (20.9%). Clevinger struggles with his walk rate (12.5%), does carry the top strikeout rate on the board and walked just four batters this spring. He completed six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last season. Tanner Roark's value lies in the fact that he is probably the pitcher most likely to finish six innings tonight. He's the only pitcher on the board to average at least six innings per start over the last two calendar years. Lower priced potential pitchers of interest may include Bryan Mitchell, who had higher strikeout rates in the minors than he's had in the majors so far and faces a perennially awful road offense in the Rockies in San Diego tonight, Brian Johnson, who's similarly struggles to miss bats in the majors, but travels to Miami and struck out 13 in 15.2 spring innings, and Andrew Triggs, who has exhibited a double digit SwStr% and 50+ GB% in each of his two seasons before 2017 ended early due to injury. He's in a strong spot at home against a Texas offense that was exposed )82 wRC+, 26.1 K%) outside a very hitter friendly home park last season.

There are four arms on the night slate that exceed a 29% strikeout rate this year. All of them have a walk rate above 11%, while two (Miley & Rodriguez) have walked more than 14% of the batters he's faced. Wade Miley also has just a 9.6 SwStr%. One of them, Yu Darvish (7.85), sits atop tonight's Daily K Predictor, tralied closely by Zack Greinke (7.51) in Colorado and Stephen Strasburg (7.47) in Philadelphia. Don't be so quick to dismiss Greinke in Coors. He's facing a stuttering offense (75 wRC+ vs RHP, 60 wRC+ over the last week) at a reduced cost (around $8K on either site) and seems not to have be too greatly affected by reduced velocity, striking out 20 of his last 50 batters, including 11 of these Rockies in his last start. Strikeouts shouldn't be a problem tonight, but there's a question of what comes with it. Strasburg may be in the best spot in addition to the upside. He's gone exactly seven innings in every start. Looking for a lower cost arm with some upside might bring you to Andrew Triggs (at least on DraftKings - $6.7K). While his nine strikeouts in his last start represent just over 40% of his season total of 22, his SwStr rate has been above 12% in three of his five starts. Triggs adds a great batted ball profile (55.8 GB%, 24.1 Hard%), but faces a tough Detroit offense that has been the top team in the majors against GB pitchers (148 sOPS+ via Baseball Reference).

Angels SP Tyler Skaggs has good stuff at times and strikes out batters at a fairly high rate but he struggles with giving up hard contact and walking batters. Ryon Healy and Khris Davis both have .360+ wOBA's and .235+ ISO's against LHP's and are solid options for the afternoon slate of games. Rajai Davis leading off is also in play. For the Angels, Mike Trout (as usual) is the player to target as they face A's SP Andrew Triggs. While the Angels don't strike out a ton, Triggs is worth a look at SP, especially on sites that require two SP's in your lineups - he posted a 23.1% K rate in his six starts last season and is at or near the minimum price across the industry.