Anthony Rendon Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Caleb Smith has faced just 27 batters this year (seven walks, six strikeouts) and his career 26.9 GB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE cause some skepticism that he can succeed outside of significant power suppressing parks like Miami. The Angels have just two dominant bats against LHP with a 90 team wRC+, but 21.6 K% against them. RHBs have a .330 wOBA, but also a .258 ISO against Smith since 2019, due to his extreme fly ball tendencies. As a result, Mike Trout (.388 wOBA, .265 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Anthony Rendon (.421 wOBA, .386 ISO) are two of the top bats on the slate tonight. Both are above a 150 ISO over the last month. Rendon, though, may be the superior value, as he costs $700 less on FanDuel tonight.

Tyler Anderson has a -2.7 K-BB%, 31.4 GB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE through 17.1 innings for the Giants. His 3.63 ERA is completely the product of a .235 BABP and 87.2 LOB%. His velocity is down two miles per hour from the last time he threw more than 20 major league innings in 2018. Anthony Rendon is the most potent bat against southpaws for the Angels (Mike Trout is actually better against RHP). Since last season, Rendon has put up a .426 wOBA and .301 ISO against lefties. He costs $4K on FanDuel, but has a 161 wRC+ overall this season and should be considered one of the top bats on the board tonight.

Although each of the games tonight are double elimination, meaning any pitchers are candidates for a quick hook, Stephen Strasburg may have the longest leash of the four, simply because the Washington bullpen has been in shambles all season. Patrick Corbin should be ready for an extended outing if necessary, but if Strasburg pitches anything like he has in his previous two outings though, he may take care of the entire thing by himself. He’s struck out 14 of the 31 batters he’s faced, allowing just five hits and a single run without a walk. For the season, he’s tied for the top strikeout rate on the board (29.9%) and in sole position of the top SIERA (3.49), DRA (2.13), Z-O-Swing (25.6%), GB rate (51.1%) and xwOBA (.263). The problem, of course, is that he has the worst park neutral matchup on the board (Dodgers 115 wRC+, 21 K%, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP). The lineup is expected to feature a front five all with at least a .365 wOBA against RHP this year with only Justin Turner (.182 ISO) below a .239 ISO. Fortunately for Strasburg, this is not a neutral park. It’s a very negative run environment, but that also goes to establish how difficult the Dodger offense really is as well. Strasburg was elite against batters from either side of the plate this year (both below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA). While he and Buehler rate very closely overall tonight, Strasburg may be the better value (and perhaps the top value) at $300 less on FanDuel (exactly $10K).

Walker Buehler has the highest aEV on the board tonight (88.6 mph), but has the top FIP (3.01) and allowed the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (5.4%), while comparing very favorably with Strasburg and Flaherty in terms of strikeout rate (29.2%), SIERA (3.50), DRA (2.89) and xwOBA (.275). While he’s facing a nearly neutral offense vs RHP (100 wRC+) in a very negative run environment, the Nationals had just a 21 K% vs RHP that matches the Dodgers for the lowest mark on the board. In fact, tonight’s projected lineup features only two batters above a 20.5 K% vs RHP this year, neither in the top half of the lineup. Batters from either side of the plate were within a .260-.280 wOBA & xwOBA range against Buehler this season, making Anthony Rendon (153 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and Juan Soto (155 wRC+, .303 ISO) easily the top plays here, even if it’s incredibly obvious. Adam Eaton (108 wRC+, .152 ISO) is fairly cheap though. When including price tags, the margins favoring one pitcher over another tonight are extremely close. It’s really going to matter which way the ball bounces, though Buehler has been a bit prone to blowups, especially in the second half (four ERs or more four times in 13 starts). However, he dominated the Nationals, striking out eight of 21 batters with three walks, a hit and no runs in the first game of this series and is the most rested starter on the board.

Stephen Strasburg just finished up perhaps the best season of his career by peripherals (29.9 K%, 3.32 ERA, 2.13 DRA, .263 xwOBA), numbers that make him seem merely average on this board though. An added attraction is that he transitions to one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. A detraction is that the Dodger offense (115 wRC+, 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP) resides in that environment. It’s tough to side with a RHP against this offense with a projected lineup that includes five batters (Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager and Will Smith) above a .360 wOBA and .230 ISO vs RHP this year. However, it’s tough to stack up this offense against a pitcher who held batters from either side of the plate below a .280 wOBA and .150 ISO this season as well. Anything goes on a four game slate, but this may be the least attractive spot on the board today.

Clayton Kershaw showed signs of his former perennial Cy Young candidate form this year, but also struggled down the stretch, allowing 13 of his 28 HRs this season over his last seven starts. He did finish up the season with six shutout innings in San Diego and another scoreless relief inning in San Francisco, but still had a 6.00 FIP over this span and a dangerous proposition against a Washington team with a 111 wRC+ vs LHP this year without even regarding his familiar post-season narrative. While Kershaw’s post-season failures have been emphasized, he’s also had many quality playoff outings as well. However, players will still probably want to look at Anthony Rendon (.429 wOBA, .301 ISO) and Howie Kendrick (.431 wOBA, .239 ISO), who both hammered LHP this year. Considering that Kershaw had virtually no split this year (LHBs .269 wOBA, .174 ISO), Juan Soto (.355 wOBA, .195 ISO) is just a quality bat, who could be a bit under-valued here. This too is not one of the betters spots on the board for either side today.

While the Nationals (100 wRC+ and a slate low 21 K% vs RHP) and Dodgers (103 wRC+ and a slate high 17.7 HR/FB vs LH) aren’t typically offenses we look to oppose in daily fantasy, this is the game to target pitching in on a two game slate. Walker Beuhler (29.2%) and Patrick Corbin (28.5%) exceed the strikeout rates of the pitchers in Atlanta by about 10 points and are pitching in a much more negative run environment. Corbin finished up September with a board high 30 K% and 16.1 SwStr%, although he did wreck his ERA by allowing three HRs to Cleveland in his last start. The elite strikeout rate did allow Corbin to skirt issues with hard contact this season. His 88.9 mph aEV and 9.4% Barrels/BBE are easily worst on the board, though his .303 xwOBA was second best. The Dodgers don’t hit LHP as well as they do RHPs, but don’t mistake that to believe they aren’t still a quality offense against southpaws. Regardless, Corbin still may be the best value on the board at $400 to $800 cheaper than Beuhler on either site.

Buehler has tremendous upside as well. He struck out 11 or more six times this year and did not struggle with contact as much as Corbin (88.6 mph aEV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE), but he was also not beyond being prone to the occasional blow up. Eight times, opponents put at least five runs on the board against him, four times since the All-Star break. The Nationals are the most contact prone offense on the board and Buehler is the highest priced. It’s really close between he and Corbin for the top overall spot on the board tonight.

Corbin’s .319 xwOBA vs RHBs is the only wOBA or xwOBA mark above .300 that either pitcher allowed to batters from either side of the plate this season. GPP players are certainly going to want to look at some bats here as well though. A.J. Pollock (134 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Justin Turner (142 wRC+, .294 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO vs RHP) are best with the platoon advantage and none run a price tag any higher than Soto’s $4.1K cost on DraftKings. Cody Bellinger (150 wRC+, .319 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are so good it may not matter. The run line for the Dodgers is currently on the rise this afternoon, now eclipsing four implied runs (4.28) to push them past the Cardinals (4.16) for the second spot on the board. The Nationals are well behind the pack at 3.22 implied runs.

Zach Plesac has been regressing with at least four runs in four of his last six starts, but still has a 3.82 ERA (.248 BABIP, 79 LOB%) that’s well below all of his estimators, which are above five and confirmed by a .352 xwOBA. The interesting thing here is that Plesac has shown a substantial platoon split this year (RHBs .336 wOBA, LHBs .288). However, Statcast suggests there’s really no split at all and Plesac should be far worse against LHBs (.347 xwOBA), while also worse against RHBs (.355). Players should feel comfortable firing up the majority of the Washington lineup (5.13 implied runs). Trea Turner (119 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP), Anthony Rendon (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) and Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .305 ISO) are your top bats, Turner and Asdrubal Cabrera (97 wRC+, .193 ISO) are swinging the hottest bats in the projected lineup, both above a 200 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week.

Caleb Smith has really struggled over the past 30 days, posting a 6.39 ERA, 6.48 xFIP and 5.70 SIERA with a 2.84 HR/9, 12.8% BB rate and .383 xwOBA allowed. Smith also goes from pitcher’s haven Marlins Park to hitter-friendly Nationals Park, which has been a problem for him over the past few years. Since 2018, Smith has a 4.65 ERA / 5.23 FIP with a .328 xwOBA allowed in road starts, compared to a 3.55 ERA / 3.66 FIP and .302 xwOBA allowed in home starts. The Nationals have a league-leading 141 wRC+ over the past 14 days and have plenty of good options this afternoon: Anthony Rendon (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yan Gomes (.419), Howie Kendrick (.419), Juan Soto (.369), Trea Turner (.326), Victor Robles (.325) and Ryan Zimmerman (.277) are all in play. Kendrick has been on fire with a .530 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Juan Soto (.479) and Rendon (.424). Robles stands out as a nice value, battign 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings. Turner, Rendon, Soto and Kendrick all cost above $5k on Draftkings. Though he’s batting 7th, Gomes is a great value at just $3.1k given his success vs. lefties. The Nats currently have a 5.83 implied line vs. Smith and the Marlins.