Antonio Senzatela Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Antonio Senzatela snapped a seven start streak of allowing at least five earned runs in every start, when he shut down the Cardinals (1 R – 5 Ks) over six innings at Coors last time out. He actually has the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE on the slate (5.9%) behind a 54.3 GB%. However, he also has just a 2.1 K-BB% and those are hard ground balls. His 42.5% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and he’s one of just two pitchers on the board above a .350 xwOBA. Considering these attributes, low K-BB%, high exit velocity, lots of ground balls, Senzatela is certainly the type of you pitcher you want to stack against, rather than home run hunt. Expect a lot of traffic on the bases, while the Mets are, of course, the best projected offense on the board (7.5 implied runs) by more than a full run. The downside is that the Mets are coming off the Sunday night game in New York, though they do get a later start after flying nearly across country. Senzatela has a pretty massive platoon split too (LHBs 85 points and 54 points higher by wOBA and xwOBA), so particular attention should be paid to the LHBs of Jeff McNeil (144 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .276 ISO), Robinson Cano (117 wRC+, .220) and Brandon Nimmo (75 wRC+, .106 ISO), who finally seems healthy (171 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days). The Mets generally like to balance their lineup though, without two same-handed batters back to back.

Dodger Stadium is one of the most negative run environments in all of baseball, but with the weather cooling, that doesn’t seem as much of an offensive handicap tonight, as Weather Edge (premium subscription required) suggests not too many environments get an run scoring boost tonight. Then there’s Antonio Senzatela, who faces a ferocious Dodger offense (116 wRC+, 10.2 K-BB%, 18 HR/FB vs RHP) with the worst K-BB (1.7%) and Z-Contact (91.7%) on the board. Over the last month, it gets even worse (7.9 K%, .365 xwOBA). If you think this is mostly a product of Coors, he has a .381 xwOBA on the road this year as well. Once again, despite the negative run environment, the Dodgers have a 6.31 implied run line that leads the board and might give someone the wrong impression that this game is being played at Coors. With the exceptions of Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Cody Bellinger (171 wRC+, .348 ISO) firmly entrenched in the three and four spots, this lineup is generally pretty fluid. Considering the .390 wOBA and .367 xwOBA RHBs have against Senzatela over the last 12 months, any left-handed bats that appear in this lineup are likely fine plays. Gavin Lux still costs less than $4K on DraftKIngs and just $2.5K on FanDuel. Joc Pederson (132 wRC+, .315 ISO) has a 338 wRC+ over the last week.

Antonio Senzatela has regressed this year as he has so far posted a 4.91 ERA / 5.01 xFIP / 5.51 SIERA with a 3.2% K-BB, 38.2% hard contact rate allowed and just a 6.6% SwStr with a .359 xwOBA allowed; all of these numbers are career worsts. Senzatela has shown no signs of turning it around over the past 30 days with a 5.65 xFIP / 5.60 SIERA, a 1.6% K-BB and .350 xwOBA. The Dodgers have been the 3rd hottest offense in baseball over the past 30 days by xwOBA (.338) and their whole lineup is in play with a whopping 7.31 implied total in Coors tonight. Cody Bellinger (.488 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Justin Turner (.393), Max Muncy (.387), Joc Pederson (.368), Matt Beaty (.353), Alex Verdugo (.347), Russell Martin (.315) and Chris Taylor (.256) are all projected in the LA lineup tonight. Verdugo projects to hit 2nd and is a bargain at $4.9k on Draftkings, followed by Turner projected in the 3-hole at just $5k. Russell Martin is just $3.7k. Bellinger has been the Dodgers’ hottest bat with a .474 xwOBA over the past 14 days and will cost $6k. Muncy has a .443 xwOBA over the past 14 days and will be $5.6k.

Poor weather might be a reason to over-think things and attempt to fade Coors tonight, but Kevin mentions in his forecast that there hasn’t been a negative effect towards run scoring under these conditions and both of these pitchers are ripe for the pickings. Merrill Kelly has an 11.9 K% over the last month with a board worst .430 xwOBA. For the season, he has a 41.7 Z-O-Swing% and 6.73 DRA. Antonio Senzatela has allowed seven and eight runs to the Giants and Pirates over his last four starts and has just a 14.4 K% with a board high 46.8% 95+ mph EV for the season. These are two pitchers who may be hit hard under any weather conditions outside a tornado at Coors. This should remain a productive venue for offense tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA within two points of .380 against Kelly this season. Trevor Story (128 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Nolan Arenado (107 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Daniel Murphy (111 wRC+, .184 ISO) are all above a 150 wRC+ over the last week. David Dahl (111 wRC+, .253 ISO) just misses that mark (139). Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 xwOBA against Senzatela over the last 12 months as well. The Diamondbacks are currently missing a few key bats, but that means they’ll be able to surround Eduardo Escobar (121 wRC+, .259 ISO) with some more affordable bats tonight.

Stephen Strasburg has struck out at least eight in six innings or better in six of his seven starts. His 15 SwStr% is a career high by more than two full points. Ironically usage of his four-seamer (31.2%) and slider (1.7%) are down in favor of curves (28%) and sinkers (19.4%), but the whiff rate on curve (44.2%) and four-seamer (29.5%) are up about 10 percentage points without any significant spin rate changes and an actual one mph loss in velocity. Due to these adjustments in pitch usage, his ground ball rate (50.9%) has hit 50% for the first time since 2013 and only other time in his career. His 22.6 Z-O-Swing% is best on the board and Caleb Smith is the only other pitcher on the board with more than one start, who betters his 81.8 Z-Contact%. And among those who have made a single start, only Noah Syndergaard comes within 20 points of his .243 xwOBA. The Brewers have a 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP and 22.0 HR/FB at home in a dangerous park, but they also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP. This might give Strasburg the highest projected strikeout rate on the board tonight. Despite the difficult spot, this also a high upside one for a pitcher showing some of the most upside of his career.

The lineup is not very encouraging and 4.68 runs is a low implied total for Coors, but Antonio Senzatela is not a top of the rotation pitcher, which means any offense he faces at Coors can be dangerous and certainly Joe Panik (94 wRC+, .108 ISO vs RHP this season) stands out as a value bat in this spot, leading off for $3.7K on DraftKings. Brandon Belt (128 wRC+, .260 ISO) has been struggling, but he and Alen Hanson (124 wRC+, .230 ISO) have the best numbers against RHP in this lineup.

Without an exceptional value among tonight's highest priced arms, paying down for pitching is a reasonable consideration tonight, though there's significant risk in a lot of those spots as well. Nick Pivetta continues to have trouble keeping runs off the board, but also has the third highest strikeout rate on the board (28.2%). The .337 BABIP simply has no basis. In fact, his .306 wOBA suggests a much better pitcher. The Cubs may be difficult (11.7 K-BB%), but it’s not an overall terrible spot. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed 14 earned runs over his last 17 innings and another seven unearned runs with just 12 strikeouts (91 BF). He has shown some upside this year and is in a high upside matchup (White Sox 18.8 K-BB% vs RHP) with a park upgrade tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not reached even 90 pitches in an outing since April. He does have a 29.7 K% on the season and 26.9 K% since returning from the DL, though with just a league average SwStr%. He has the best xwOBA on the board (.273) by over 20 points and that number drops to .225 in his five home starts. The Diamondbacks are a better offense vs LHP (101 wRC+ and a split best 26.7 Hard-Soft%), but they have a team 53 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% and 8.0 HR/FB over the last week and find themselves in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. Andrew Suarez and Antonio Senzatela are below average pitchers, but in great matchups and great parks at a low cost. Jameson Taillon has eight strikeouts in each of his last two starts. If he can sustain a strikeout rate even a little above average, he’s a useful arm now that he’s pitching deeper into games (at least six innings in six straight and eight of his last nine starts). His .298 xwOBA is tied for third best on the board. The Braves have just a 20.3 K% vs RHP, but are not an above average offense against them.

Anotonio Senzatela has allowed RHBs a .313 wOBA that’s 15 points higher than LHBs this season, but with a 41.4 Hard%, his xwOBA is actually .351 against RHBs. This reverse platoon split works against him in this situation because the St Louis lineup is populated with RHBs who can handle same-handed pitching. Matt Carpenter (155 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a top play no matter who’s pitching to him at Coors. Yadier Molina (108 wRC+, .184 ISO), Jose Martinez (125 wRC+, .154 ISO), Tyler O’Neill (122 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Paul DeJong (105 wRC+, .197 ISO) have all been competent or better against RHP too. The Cardinals are essentially tied for the top spot on the board at 5.3 implied runs.