Austin Bibens-Dirkx Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

It's not Coors, but it's the most positive run environment otherwise in Texas, where the Astros are essentially tied with the Rockies for tonight's top run line (6.04). Austin Bibens-Dirkx has allowed just one HR in four starts against mostly inferior offenses (San Diego, Kansas City twice), keeping his ERA and FIP about a run below his xFIP and SIERA. He has a 90.2 mph aEV despite just 2.8% Barrels/BBE. The latter number would be more likely to regress and this could be the spot. RHBs have a .344 wOBA against him since last season (23 points higher than LHBs) with a 41.2 Hard%. By xwOBA, he's at .358 against all batters. Each of the first eight batters in the lineup are above a 105 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year and only Josh Reddick (115 wRC+, .130 ISO) is below a .170 ISO against them over that span. Jose Altuve (165 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Alex Bregman (138 wRC+, .211 ISO) are to infield bats tonight. This is really a lineup that works better as a stack if affordable.

There aren't many spots where you'll find the Padres at nearly five implied runs (4.88) against a right-handed pitcher, but Austin Bibens-Dirx in Texas is apparently one. Considering their 72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road and 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP, there's still some merit with using Bibens-Dirx in an SP spot with a premium pitcher for just $4.6K, but batters from either side of the plate are just above a .360 xwOBA against him since last season and Padres hitters are fairly cheap too. Travis Jankowski (108 wRC+, .079 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Manny Margot (87 wRC+, 122 ISO) and Eric Hosmer (154 wRC+, .197 ISO) start off the lineup all below $4K on DraftKings, while not a single batter in the entire lineup is above $3K on FanDuel. While Hosmer is the only real hitter of the bunch, the matchup and price dictate the value of the speedier hitters above him. Cory Spangenberg (114 wRC+, .186 ISO) has some value in the fifth spot as well.

Players looking to drop down below the highest priced pitchers may find themselves struggling to locate high value arms in the middle or lower price ranges. Zack Godley isn't much less expensive than those arms, but may be the best players can hope for. His 2018 has not been as successful as his 2017 season, but it's been closest over the last month in which his strikeout rate has risen 25.6% with a 57.5 GB%, though he still has a 9.9 BB% and 41.1 Hard% over that span. He may be unworthy of his price tag tonight in a neutral matchup, but he's facing the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in Miami. Players paying up for high priced pitching on DraftKings are also going to need lower priced compliments. For less than $7K on DraftKings, a few pitchers may fill that spot. Blaine Hardy ($6.6K) has pitched reasonably well for Detroit (3.75 FIP, .312 xwOBA) and is hosting an Oakland offense that's struggled with LHP (89 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). Steven Matz ($6.1K) is in a Coors bounce back spot and in fact, has faced many difficult lineups over the last month or so. Over those last six starts, his ground ball rate is up 54.1% and Nolan Arenado at Coors is one of just three HRs he's allowed. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, he gets one of the coldest offenses on the board (31 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days). Chad Bettis ($5.4K) has allowed five or more runs in five straight. The only game outside Coors in that span was in Texas. His strikeout rate is actually slightly up this month (19.4%). He’s been hit hard for sure, but his .343 wOBA over the last 30 days is the same as his season rate. Coors magnifies most flaws, while San Francisco masks them. The Giants have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and 3.9 HR/FB over the last week. If absolutely necessary, Austin Bibens-Dirx ($4.6K) is not good and he is at home in the worst run environment on the board, but he's facing the Padres (72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP).

It'll be Bibens-Dirkx first Big League start and he's in for a tough matchup with an offense that's posted a .198 ISO against RHP this season, the highest ISO on the slate based on handedness splits. Bibens-Dirkx has pitched 11.1 innings as a reliever this season and faced 46 batters - not a large sample size. He may have a 3.97 ERA during that stretch and a 4.18 SIERA but his peripherals suggest those numbers could've been a lot worse. His 30.3% GB% is the lowest on the slate while his 51.5% FB% is the highest. He has a Hard% of 36.4% and an F-Strike% of just 47.8%, suggesting his 6.5% BB% will rise. His BABIP, which was between .282 and .450 in his last six triple-a stops, is just .193 so far. In addition to a high ISO against RHP, Tampa Bay has a .336 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 37.8% FB%, 17.7% HR/FB, and a 36.4% Hard%. Although they have the highest K% in split tonight (26.2%) and Bibens-Dirkz has a respectable 19.6% K%, Vegas seems to be on the hitters' side, providing them a 5.03 projected run total, the second-highest on the slate. If their projected lineup holds, they'll have three lefties available that have been crushing RHP - Logan Morrison (45.9% FB%, 42.9% Hard%, .301 ISO, .366 wOBA), Corey Dickerson (42,6% FB%, 40.0% Hard%, .299 ISO, .416 wOBA), and Colby Rasmus (45.0% FB%, 41.5% Hard%, .268 ISO, .335 wOBA) stand out as the top targets against the old rookie.