Austin Jackson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The FanDuel main afternoon slate kicks off at noon and includes the first four games, while the DraftKings main afternoon slate skips the noon start between the Mets and the Nationals. Both teams are hovering around the middle of the board, one-tenth of a point removed from 4.25 implied runs. Tommy Milone was decent enough in his first start against the Marlins (5 IP - 3 ER - 0 BB - 6 K), but in 53.1 major league innings since last season, RHBs have torched him for a .440 wOBA (.394 xwOBA) on just a 36.4 GB%. In addition, Kevin reports a healthy wind blowing out 10-15 mph (direction not noted) on a humid afternoon. This part is easy enough. Amed Rosario (84 wRC+, .163 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Austin Jackson (119 wRC+, .101 ISO), Wilmer Flores (92 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Jose Bautista (114 wRC+, .211 ISO) comprise four of the first five spots in the lineup and are all below $3K. Jackson costs the minimum. The other side of this is a bit trickier. The Mets threw nearly every pitcher they have plus Jose Reyes at the Nationals last night. The bullpen is exhausted. Noah Syndergaard is returning from a virus and my not be built up to go deep into this game, so he's probably not an ideal option at $9.5K. One guy who did not appear and is likely to throw a few innings under most scenarios is Seth Lugo. He's thrown just 2.2 innings over the last week. Considering Syndergaard may not be in top form, the Nationals have wisely utilized their speed at the top of the order today with Adam Eaton (142 wRC+, .119 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Trea Turner (104 wRC+, .170 ISO). If nothing else, even at his best, Syndergaard can be run on liberally.

Robbie Ray's continued lack of velocity is a concern. He's consistently been a mile and a half below last season with a league average 93 mph fastball at this point. He's compensated by throwing more sliders and curves to continue to generate a 32.4 K% (12.7 SwStr%), perhaps learning from Greinke, but he's lasted five innings or less with three or more runs in two of three starts and walked five in the start where he threw six one-run innings. Statcast supports a .360 xwOBA with a 91.1 mph aEV (the ball is coming back at him almost as hard as he throws it) and 56.8% 95+ mph EV. More than half of his contact has been 95 miles per hour or better. That's tough to survive even when striking out one-third of batters. Against the Giants (69 wRC+, 24.9 K% vs LHP) players might want to continue to bet on his high upside arm, but at a cost of either $9.5K or $10K, it's a significant risk. These Giants got to him in San Francisco last time out and could do so again. Austin Jackson (141 wRC+, .171 ISO vs LHP since last year) costs less than $3K on either site and has been leading off against southpaws. Buster Posey (162 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Andrew McCutchen (167 wRC+, .316 ISO) have hammered lefties. Evan Longoria (86 wRC+, .180 ISO) has not, but does have the hottest bat in the lineup (196 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% over the last week). This lineup has not yet been confirmed.

Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs LHP) returns to the Cleveland lineup against C.C. Sabathia for Game Five. Sabathia walked three of the 24 Cleveland batters he faced in Game Two, striking out five, and hitting one. With all hands on deck, it's unlikely he goes through this order more than twice unless pitching exceptionally well. The Tribe has the only implied run line above four (4.41) on the board. Kevin's forecast calls for wind blowing in from right sustained at 15 mph, though LHBs don't hit Sabathia very well anyway (.306 wOBA, two HRs, 58.9 GB%, 14.3 Hard%). While the inclination would be to load up on RH Cleveland bats (.310 wOBA, 19 HRs, 29.9 Hard% against Sabathia this season), it's almost impossible to do if paying up for Kluber on FanDuel. Francisco Lindor (134 wRC+, .224 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Ramirez (147 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP) are top plays along with Encarnacion. Austin Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) is the top salary saver on the board. Roberto Perez (110 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP) may be under-valued behind the dish, costing less than $3K on either site. Jackson, Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis all have one career HR against Sabathia with Kipnis having the fewest PAs (17). Jackson, additionally, has three doubles and a triple in 42 career PAs. Tonight's home plate umpire, Jeff Nelson, is about as neutral as one can get (0.99 K-Boost, 1.00 BB-Boost). In 324 games behind the plate according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, batters have a 19.8 K% and 7.9 BB% with him behind the plate.

The Cleveland Indians are the lowest of three teams implied for more than four runs today (4.31) at home against C.C. Sabathia. While Sabathia's 19.3 K% and 3.69 ERA (4.45 SIERA, 4.52 DRA) are worst on the board and probably take him out of play in as daily fantasy playable, his numbers are not that bad. He's been a solid real life pitcher for the Yankees this year, mostly due to his contact management improvements over the last couple of years (49.9 GB%, 3.1 Hard-Soft% this year). This leaves players with a question of whether to attack him and how with Cleveland bats. Jose Ramirez (147 wRC+, .254 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (134 wRC+, .224 ISO) are all extremely potent hitters against LHP, but all are quite expensive. RHBs (.310 wOBA, 48.1 GB%, 29.9 Hard%) were certainly much more competent against Sabathia than LHBs (.306 wOBA, 58.9 GB%, 14.3 Hard%), which may remove Jason Kipnis (64 wRC+ vs LHP) and Jay Bruce (88 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP) as particularly strong options. Austin Jackson (171 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP) and Yan Gomes (123 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP) are more sneaky value plays, both $3.5K or less on either site. Other factors players will certainly want to consider here are weather, bullpen and umpiring. This game gets the only YELLOW grade in Kevin's MLB forecast today. A delay is not likely, though getting Sabathia out of the game is unlikely to benefit Cleveland because the Yankees have the top bullpen in the majors (29.1 K% and 9.2 fWAR). The Yankees utilized Betances for an inning last night and Jaime Garcia took a multi-inning hit with Sonny Gray leaving early, saving the majority of the bullpen for tonight if necessary. Dan Iassonga would be the ball and strike caller for this game according to Yahoo Sports, if the rotation is correct (he was at First Base yesterday). In a 309 game sample according to Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, players had a 20.6 K% and 8.3 BB% in games called by Iassogna. His 1.14 K-Boost and 0.93 BB-Boost would make him one of the most pitcher friendly umpires in the game. This could be a significant boost for Sabathia, who has become more of a location oriented pitcher after losing several miles per hour off his fastball in recent seasons.

Not a single team on tonight's slate has a projected run line above 4.85 runs. While it's a pitching rich board, there are still a few spots ripe for attack. The Marlins have the highest implied run line on the board (4.85) against Sean Newcomb. He doesn't appear the most favorable target with most of his issues coming due to walks and inconsistency, nor are the Marlins the most potent offense. While some Giancarlo Stanton (198 wRC+, .453 ISO, 41.9 Hard%, 43 FB% vs LHP) is completely warranted, this is not a spot where players should feel obligated to load up. It may even be reasonable to fade considering the wide range of outcomes that Newcomb is capable of. The Twins are at 4.81 runs in Kansas City for Sam Gaviglio's Royals debut. He's allowed 14 HRs in 11 starts with his 8.2% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board. If players think that the bigger park in Kansas City should be an upgrade for his skill set (or lack there of), consider that where he's coming from (Seattle) is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in the league. Cleveland (4.79) is the only other offense above 4.7 runs. They're the hottest offense in baseball (152 wRC+ and 13.1 K% last seven days). They have a just a 7.0 K-BB% vs LHP this year and Carlos Rodon has struck out exactly four in four of his last five starts. His 89.2 mph aEV and 41.7% 95+ mph aEV is highest on the board. While his splits haven't been as extreme as usual, that's likely because LHBs (69 faced) have just a 2.2 Soft% against. RHBs (228 faced) have 10 of the 12 HRs he's allowed. The potency of RH Cleveland bats against LHP is endless with some very affordable options like Yandy Diaz (138 wRC+, 48 Hard%), Yan Gomes (127 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Brandon Guyer (141 wRC+, 171 ISO since 2016) paving the a path towards Jose Ramirez (135 wRC+, .236 ISO), Edwin Encarnacion (123 wRC+, .188 ISO), Francisco Lindor (132 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Austin Jackson (170 wRC+, .245 ISO).

The Colorado Rockies have an slate leading 6.83 run projection from Vegas tonight that's well above the next highest team (Cleveland 6.04), who are a half run ahead of the rest of the pack themselves. In all, eight teams have an implied run line above five runs and four more above 4.8 on a full board. The Rockies are generally going to have an inflated run line at home and due to poor performance this season, they've often been a profitable fade at Coors, especially when facing competent pitching. Tonight, they face Ty Blach. He has just an 11.1 K% (6.4 SwStr%), but an 85.8 mph aEV and 3.8% Barrels/BBE (fifth best on the entire board), which often makes him a guy to completely ignore in a daily fantasy setting. However, we know that marginal contact travels farther at Coors and he's also allowed six HRs over his last four starts with a hard hit rate above 33% in four of his last six starts. RHBs overall have a .347 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% against him this season. Nolan Arenado (212 wRC+, .431 ISO, 36.1 Hard%, 49.1 FB% vs LHP) is today's top overall bat with DJ LeMahieu (146 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP) and Trevor Story (153 wRC+, .373 ISO, 48.3 Hard%, 46.7 vs LHP) candidates for an abundance of exposure as well. Story even costs below $4K on either site because he's been so terrible against RHP this year. Although Blach has handled LHBs well (.273 wRC+, 29.5 Hard%), Charlie Blackmon hits LHP very well (138 wRC+, .234 ISO). Players certainly shouldn't be sleeping on Cleveland bats either. They are facing David Holmberg. He's faced 373 RHBs in his career, allowing a .380 wOBA with 20 HRs (39.5 GB%, 22 Hard-Soft%). Jose Ramirez (125 wRC+, .207 ISO vs LHP) and Edwin Encarnacion (122 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP) are perhaps the top batters outside Coors with Austin Jackson (164 wRC+, .221 ISO) a strong value if he remains near the top of the order.

Cleveland is actually tied with San Diego for the lowest implied run line on the board (3.1), but Chris Sale leads the majors with a by nearly two full points with a 31.9 K-BB%.He has at least nine strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 starts and 21 of 24. The Daily K Predictor projects him for the most strikeouts (8.44) by a full strikeout over Strasburg (7.41). He's clearly the top pitcher on the board, though the RotoGrinders Player Projects appear to like Carlos Martinez in a great spot just as much. If searching for potential holes, Sale has been below his season SwStr rate (15.2%) in six straight starts, though at 12.5% or higher in three straight. The Indians have a 101 wRC+ at home in a fairly positive run environment and a 100 wRC+ vs LHP, but with just a 17.9 K% and 10.2 BB%. He's become a fairly extreme fly ball pitcher, especially against RHBs (35.6 GB%). They have 12 of his 15 HRs surrendered this year with a 30 Hard%, though a 33 K-BB%. It's not out of the question that a RHB takes him deep and while most would immediately think of Edwin Encarnacion (125 wRC+, .187 ISO vs LHP), Austin Jackson (169 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP) has has more success against southpaws at a lower cost and would be easier to roster as an Outfielder than a First Baseman. Francisco Lindor (127 wRC+, .198 ISO vs LHP) does have a HR with a 91 mph aEV (13 BBEs) in 17 career PAs with just two strikeouts against Sale. Significant exposure to Cleveland bats is not recommended though.

As a result, Porcello has given up a .342 wOBA and .222 ISO, plus he's posted an overall contact rate of 81.6%. This sets up a great spot for Cleveland's lefty bats. They're currently expected to start five of their first six batters from the left side of the plate: Bradley Zimmer (.213 ISO, .357 wOBA, 32.1% FB%, 38.4% Hard% against RHP this year), Francisco Lindor (.198 ISO, .313 wOBA, 42.9% FB%, 30.5% Hard%), Michael Brantley (.172 ISO, .362 wOBA, 29.9% FB%, 40.7% Hard%), Jose Ramirez (.256 ISO, .398 wOBA, 41.2% FB%, 34.1% Hard%), and Carlos Santana (.215 ISO, .356 wOBA, 42.6% FB%, 36.3% Hard%). Although his numbers are better against RHB, they're still appealing; he's posted a .351 wOBA, .205 ISO, 38.8% Hard%, 35.1%, so guys like Edwin Encarnacion (.237 ISO, .352 wOBA, 41.4% FB%, 38.2% Hard%) and Austin Jackson (.109 ISO, .341 wOBA, 40.0% FB%, 41.2% Hard%) are in play. Cleveland's projected run total is just 4.65 as Porcello has maintained a 4.13 SIERA this season, despite the poor peripheral stats. Still, the Indians' total may be lower than it should with the way they match up with the Red Sox pitcher and it should keep their ownership down, which presents a nice opportunity to stack them in GPPs.

With just two part time players (Cameron Rupp 308 & Matt Szczur 306) above a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.) players may need to lower their expectations for the league's hottest bats, although Rupp has three HRs over the last seven days as well. Jose Altuve (287 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, one HR) could have a big night against Jordan Zimmermann (RHBs .365 wOBA since last season) and has to be considered one of the top batters on the slate. Manuel Margot (287 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) is coming off a strong home stand, but actually transitions to a park that's much harder on RH power in Pittsburgh against a pitcher who has stifled RHBs this year (299 wOBA vs Chad Kuhl since last season). Luis Valbuena (282 wRC+, 70 Hard%, three HRs) is unlikely to see opportunities against J.A. Happ. James McCann (280 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 0 HRs) only has 12 PAs over the last week, but now has a 146 wRC+ with a .308 ISO and 46.1 Hard% against LHP since last season. While he faces Dallas Keuchel tonight (RHBs .308 wOBA since last season), he hasn't seen major league action in nearly two months and may not be up to his normal standards. Austin Jackson (274 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%, 0 HRs) hasn't hit the ball particularly hard and has only the requisite 10 PAs, but he's in a great spot (RHBs .494 wOBA vs Derek Holland since the start of June) and has pummeled LHP this year (168 wRC+, .250 ISO, 34.7 Hard%).

Under conditions where it may barely be considered humane to play baseball in, the Texas Rangers have the top implied run line tonight at 6.15 runs when the host the Orioles. While Chris Tillman pitched six innings of one run ball against them two starts back, he walked four with just three strikeouts and is going to be contending with 100 degree temperatures tonight. The same conditions apply to a Baltimore offense facing a contact managing Andrew Cashner (3.6% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 1.5 K-BB%. Though the Orioles don't have many LHBs, players should rightfully continue to attack with the likes of Seth Smith (249 wRC+ last seven days) and Chris Davis (55.6 Hard% last seven days) against Cashner's 32.4 Hard% 37 GB%, and 0.0 K-BB% vs LHBs this year. The Orioles (5.35) are one of eight teams projected between five and six runs tonight, the most interesting of which has to be the Indians (5.9). Over the last two months, RHBs have a .494 wOBA with 13 HRs and a 40.6 Hard% against him. Edwin Encarnacion has a 229 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and has three career HRs with a 100.6 mph aEV (seven BBEs) in 25 PAs against Holland. Considering the punishment being inflicted, any Cleveland batter who attempts to come to the plate right-handed should be played tonight (and perhaps they all should). This includes switch hitters like Francisco Lindor (136 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs LHP this year), but players can also save salary with Austin Jackson (168 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this year) and Yan Gomes (136 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP this year). Just remember that players using Danny Salazar are only allowed three additional Cleveland bats on FanDuel unfortunately.