Bartolo Colon Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Are the Angels taking pity on Bartolo Colon? He's pitching in Texas and RHBs have a .379 wOBA against him this season, while batters from both sides are above a .360 xwOBA. Don't abuse your elders? So Mike Trout sits. How are the Angels to meet their 5.1 implied run line now? Perhaps they won't, but the top half of this lineup are all still great plays, especially Shohei Ohtani (178 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP) and more affordably Kole Calhoun (97 wRC+, .209 ISO).

The A's have a 4.94 implied run line that's highest of the six west coast teams tonight and probably doesn't even consider Bartolo Colon's back issues that caused him to be scratched last night. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .370 xwOBA against him this season as well as above a 40% hard hit rate, while the Texas bullpen has a bottom three FIP over the last 30 days. While part of that is probably due to the park in Texas and Oakland is a significantly lower run environment, this is an offense that hits the ball hard with each of the first five batters in the lineup above a 125 wRC+ and only Nick Martini (144 wRC+, .147 ISO, .340 xwOBA) below a .215 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Khris Davis (148 wRC+, .311 ISO) and Matt Olson (142 wRC+, .300 ISO) have as much upside as anyone tonight. Both are above a 150 wRC+ over the last week.

Three bullpens are above a five FIP over the last month. All three are on the board tonight and all two are in attackable spots. Two of them are facing each other in Toronto. The Orioles (5.89 FIP, 5.8 K-BB% last 30 days) are in Blue Jays (5.05 FIP, 15 K-BB%) are in Toronto with Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada as starters. The Toronto bullpen does have strong peripherals with a high HR rate and the Baltimore offense may not have many rosterable candidates. The Texas bullpen (5.42 FIP, 12.7 K-BB%) gets a park upgrade, but face a hard hitting Oakland lineup behind a pitcher (Bartolo Colon), who was scratched on Sunday due to a back issue. Jorge Lopez makes his second start for the Royals (4.38 FIP, 12.3 K-BB%) a greatly improved bullpen over the last month. Austin Gomber makes his fifth start for the Cardinals (4.35 FIP, 6.8 K-BB%), who have the second lowest bullpen K-BB% over the last month. No other starter is averaging fewer than 5.1 innings per start tonight.

The lineup that all daily fantasy players are looking for has arrived. The Diamondbacks have a board topping 5.42 run line against Bartolo Colon in Texas and on paper, it would seem the only thing that can stop this Arizona offense would be weather. The bullpen behind Colon is no great shakes either (5.40 FIP and 9.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days). The strongest bats in this lineup are clearly the first four: David Peralta (135 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Paul Goldschmidt (123 wRC+, .223 ISO), A.J. Pollock (114 wRC+, .219 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (142 wRC+, .317 ISO). Only Daniel Descalso (116 wRC+, .196 ISO) is additionally above an 85 wRC+ and/or a .185 ISO vs RHP over the last 365 days. Colon has been spanked to the tune of a .360 wOBA or better by batters from either side of the plate since last season. Load up on Arizona bats tonight, who cost quite a bit less than elite Cleveland bats, the only other offense above five implied runs tonight.

The Blue Jays have a league high 5.53 bullpen FIP over the last 30 days and are starting a pitcher making his major league debut. The two issues here are that the bullpen also has a 14.8 K-BB% over that span and they are facing the Royals. The Rangers take a 5.40 FIP and 9.8 K-BB% over the last 30 days into battle in Texas behind Bartolo Colon. The only issue here is the weather. The Reds back Homer Bailey at home against the Indians with a 5.07 FIP and 9.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. The Mets' bullpen has a 4.92 FIP and 6.8 K-BB% over the last month and travel accross town to Yankee Stadium tonight. Jacob deGrom is starting, but if weather looks like it might shorten his outing, this could be a sneaky attack spot. Artie Lewicki is the only other pitcher averaging fewer than 5.1 innings per start. He's started just two games and the Detroit bullpen has been quite competent over the last 30 days (3.68 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%), while the White Sox aren't really an offense players probably want to load up on anyway.

The Diamondbacks are the high run line out west (5.07) and third on the board overall against Bartolo Colon (13.7 K%, 4.67 SIERA, .366 xwOBA). Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are between a .350 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA. He's allowed 23 HRs this season, 18 to RHBs. The only bat among the first six that players might have some reservation about is Steven Souza (58 wRC+, ,134 ISO, .259 xwOBA vs RHP last calendar year). Eduardo Escobar (137 wRC+, .307 ISO) has been the top bat against RHP by far over the last 365 days. Paul Goldschmidt (112 wRC+, .210 ISO), A.J. Pollock (105 wRC+, .213 ISO), and Daniel Descalso (110 wRC+, .181 ISO) all have significant upside in this spot and Jon Jay (96 wRC+, .104 ISO) is a cheaper bat ($2.6K on FD), who could score some runs.

The implied run line for the A's in Texas tonight has reached six runs on the nose. Bartolo Colon has a 13.7 K% and 89 mph aEV that results in a .366 xwOBA this year. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are within a .350 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA range against him. Nick Martini is $3K or less, has a 285 wRC+ over the last week (11 PAs) and is leading off. He has just 29 total major league PAs and a 130 wRC+ at AAA this season. That's all the necessary knowledge to make him, perhaps, the top value play tonight. Jed Lowrie (142 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Khris Davis (141 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Matt Olson (148 wRC+, .327 ISO) are all tremendous plays tonight, but should be well represented. Each of the first eight batters in the lineup are above a 130 wRC+ over the last week.

Only one pitcher on the board is averaging six innings per start and Kyle Gibson is at Fenway. Bartolo Colon averages the second most innings per start and he's at home against the A's. Every bullpen on the board has a chance to get some work in. The three worst bullpens by FIP are off the board tonight, but the next four are all in play. The Rangers (4.76 FIP, 9.7 K-BB%), Royals (4.67 FIP, 4.8 K-BB%), Reds (4.64 FIP, 9.6 K-BB%) and Mets (4.61 FIP, 9.1 K-BB%) are all available to attack tonight with the highest two FIPs over the last 30 days in terrible spots in Texas and against the Yankees. The Marlins (4.41 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) are the only other single digit K-BB% bullpen over the last 30 days. The Yankees have a league leading 2.94 FIP over the last 30 days (22.2 K-BB%) and players probably know not to attack them with Kansas City bats, but perhaps less well known has been the prowess of the pens for the Pirates (3.16 FIP, 18.0 K-BB%) and A's (3.29 FIP, 16.2 K-BB%) recently.

Colon has gone through stretches this season where he's seemed like a competent starting pitcher at the big league level, but in recent weeks, the BABIP regression monster has begun to rear its ugly head, as his June/July ERA has ballooned to 6.23, fueled by a .329 BABIP that is much more in line with the .331 mark he posted over the course of the 2017 season. Not only has Colon recorded just 22 strikeouts in those eight starts, but his 41.9% hard-hit percentage should continue to become a larger problem in the rising Texas temperatures over the coming months, making it highly likely he will serve up some long balls to Cleveland Indian batters at Globe Life Park this evening. The Indians certainly can be an explosive offense versus right-handed pitching, as evidenced by Saturday's starting lineup's massive 0.196 ISO against righties this season, and any bust concerns should be largely mitigated by Colon's strike-heavy approach on the mound and his minuscule 14.0% strikeout rate on the year, making a full Indians stack extremely viable in large-field tournament formats given tonight's ideal hitting conditions. Jose Ramirez remains the clear-cut top target in this Cleveland lineup, as his skillset versus right-handed pitching is evident once examining his 0.447 xwOBA, 0.370 ISO, and 37.0% hard-hit percentage against righties to this point in the year. If aiming to surround Ramirez in lineups with some of his teammates, look no further than Francisco Lindor (40.5% HH%, 0.289 ISO, 0.473 xwOBA vs RHP), Michael Brantley (42.7% HH%, 0.206 ISO, 0.432 xwOBA vs RHP), and Edwin Encarnacion (39.5% HH%, 0.273 ISO, 0.485 xwOBA vs RHP), who sacrifices the platoon advantage in a matchup with Colon but still exhibits the necessary power and contact abilities to take advantage of his inefficiencies as a pitcher at this late stage in his career. The bottom half of the Indians has been a bit underwhelming thus far in the 2018 campaign, but Yonder Alonso (0.213 ISO, 0.453 xwOBA vs RHP since 2017) is still the most logical fifth member of the stack on FanDuel or even as a strategy to differentiate at first base on DraftKings from a likely popular offense on tonight's main slate.

The Red Sox (5.84) are second on a board with six teams above 5.1 runs tonight. They're facing Bartolo Colon (14.2 K%, 4.48 SIERA, .367 xwOBA) at Fenway tonight. That last number is third worst on the board among those with more than three starts this year and the run environment does him no favors. Little analysis is necessary. If paying down for pitching, load up on expensive Red Sox bats from Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) through Xander Bogaerts (105 wRC+, .190 ISO). Mitch Moreland (112 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only one among that group below a 192 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week. J.D. Martinez (183 wRC+, .389 ISO) continues one of the longest run hot streaks known to man.