Ben Lively Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Ben Lively has been missing bats around a league average rate this season (21.7 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), though the only part of his strong contact management game from last year that remains is a 4.5% Barrels/BBE. His 34.3 LD% is probably not sustainable, but has led to a .385 BABIP and .363 xwOBA so far, while he completed six innings for the first time last time out. A low price tag ($4.9K) against an offense with an 86 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP and a middling 4.03 implied run line makes him slightly interesting in a secondary role on DraftKings with a useful strikeout rate now. The pitch he's throwing more is a changeup. The one he's throwing less is a sinker that wasn't getting ground balls anyway. Lively has a large platoon split. RHBs have been around league average against him, LHBs have a .383 wOBA (.381 xwOBA) against this fly ball pitcher. Alex Avila (129 wRC+, .418 xwOBA, .205 ISO, 54.6 Hard% vs RHP) has been the best left-handed hitter in the lineup and is cheap at a difficult position, but does not have an enviable lineup spot. The most competent right-handed portion of this lineup comes at a high cost. Jarrod Dyson (93 wRC+) costs less than $3K in the two hole, where players are only really hoping he accidentally reaches base and steals. The Phillies have the third highest run line on the slate (4.43) against Matt Koch, who acquitted himself well in his first major league start (6 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 1 HR - 2 BB - 4 K vs the Padres) since he received two in 2016. The 27 year-old has run strikeout rates around 15% in the high minors the last few years without more than 75 innings at a top since 2015. The last scouting report he was a part of on Fangraphs (late 2016) called him a middle reliever with sixth starter upside. The first five batters in the Philadelphia order all have been above average against RHP since last season via wRC+. Rhys Hoskins (167 wRC+, .314 ISO) is the stud, Aaron Altherr (112 wRC+, .227) is cheap and on fire (179 wRC+, .57.1 Hard% last seven days) and Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .207 ISO) costs less than $4K on either site as well.

The Reds have produced an interesting lineup tonight as they're dealing with injuries. It seems Tucker Barnhart (100 wRC+, .137 ISO vs RHP since 2017) in the fifth spot. Ben Lively is not a pitcher who misses a lot of bats (7.2 SwStr% last year, 7.7% in his first start this year), but he did succeed at generating weak contact (84.7 mph aEV, 27.8% 95+ mph EV last year). Contrary to what some may think, Philadelphia is a park that plays more neutral as a run environment even though it greatly enhances power. There's not a lot to like in this Cincinnati lineup, though LHBs do have a .364 wOBA (.371 xwOBA) against Lively since last season. Scooter Gennett (133 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2017) and Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .244 ISO) are certainly viable plays. No other batter in the lineup has been an above average hitter (> 100 wRC+) against RHP since last season, though Adam Duvall (.209 ISO) has shown some power against a pitcher who only generates ground ball son 32.4% of contact against same-handed batters.

C.C. Sabathia has done a great job of managing contact this year. He may still have some issues facing a powerful, predominantly RH lineup in Baltimore, but it's probably not a surprise at this point to find out that his 84.8 mph aEV is lowest on the slate. What might be a surprise is the two pitchers who are lower. Both have sample size issues and would probably increase over a full season, but the point stands that neither Ordrisamer Despaigne (81.6 mph aEV in 28 IP) nor Ben Lively (84.5 mph aEV in 59 IP) are allowing a lot of hard contact. Neither misses enough bats to be considered a useful daily fantasy pitcher with strikeout rates below 15%, but they may not necessarily be pitchers players should be lining up to attack either. Both have a 95+ mph EV rate below 30% as well. Jacob deGrom and Michael Wacha are the only other pitchers on the board who can boast that as well. Lively does have a 23.6 K% (10.5 SwStr%) over his last three starts, but in the outing with the most strikeouts (eight) and only above average SwStr%, he also allowed four HRs with a 50% hard hit rate. On the other end of the spectrum, Kendall Graveman has the worse aEV (89.5 mph) and 95+ mph EV (42%). No other pitcher is above 88.5 mph or 40%. Robert Stephenson (9.9%) and Ariel Miranda (9.7%) have the highest rate of Barrels on batted balls. Stephenson has a 15+ SwStr% in three of his last four starts with just one HR allowed over his last five though.

Ben Lively has a 12.8 K% (7.4 SwStr%), but with an 85 mph aEV (29.9% 95+ mph EV). He struck out eight with a 14.6 SwStr% in his last start, also allowing four HRs. As such, the Marlins are the second of two teams with an implied run line above five runs (5.17). LHBs have generated a higher wOBA (.374 to .332) and more hard contact (33.7% to 31.9%) against Lively this season, but RHBs have a lower ground ball rate (34.4% to 45.2%). Giancarlo Stanton (155 wRC+, .346 ISO, 37.7 Hard%, 40.7 FB% vs RHP) is favored by the RotoGrinders Player Projections more than a point above any other hitter on either site tonight. He's the premier play here, but not necessarily a great value, above $5K on either site. Christian Yelich (121 wRC+, .166 ISO, 38 Hard%, 26.2 FB%) would be a fine play if he could generate more fly balls. Marcell Ozuna (148 wRC+, .278 ISO, 41.1 Hard% vs RHP) has a 183 wRC+ over the last week, but just a 22.7 Hard%. J.T. Realmuto (99 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) has been just average against same handed pitching and has a 29 wRC+ over the last week. At $2.6K on FanDuel though, he may be one of the top values on the board according to the projections (3.76 Pt/$/K). Marlins bats are fine here. They obviously have one of the top run projections. They might just not be the best values on the board and are likely to be well represented.