Ben Zobrist Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Gonzalez’s horrific BB% and SIERA are by far the worst of any starter today (min. 20 IP). In his last start, Gonzalez made it through just 3 innings, walking 4 batters (30.8% BB Rate) and posting just a 14.3% (!!) zone%. Something seems very off with Gonzalez, and he won’t have much room for error tonight facing a good Cubs lineup in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Since Gonzalez doesn’t project to pitch very deep into this game, it’s worth pointing out that the Brewers’ bullpen has allowed a 9th-worst .329 xwOBA over the past month, as well as a 4th-worst 5.16 xFIP. Nick Castellanos (.420 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Kris Bryant (.410), Willson Contreras (.366), Javier Baez (.364), Anthony Rizzo (.350) and Albert Almora Jr. (.287) are all good options in the Cubs’ projected order. On Draftkings, only Rizzo will cost greater than $5k. Ben Zobrist has struggled in limited playing time this year (78 wRC+ in 112 PA) but is projected to leadoff at just $3.8k on DK. Albert Almora has also struggled this year, but has a respectable .314 xwOBA in his career vs. LHP and costs just $3.3k on DK. The Cubs currently have a 4.99 implied total that they could easily surpass tonight.

Jose Urena will work deep into games (at least 26 BF in four straight), but doesn’t miss a lot of bats (exactly four strikeouts in five of seven starts). His 90 mph aEV could be a problem at Wrigley on an evening where the weather is not expected to be as imposing a factor as it has been the last two nights. In fact, Weather Edge (premium subscription required) is showing an early potential positive effect on run environment. An inability to miss bats could hurt Urena here as the Cubs have an 11.4 BB% and 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP. The key bat is fairly obviously going to be Anthony Rizzo (129 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He should see some RBI opportunities in his customary third slot (actual lineup has not yet been released). Either Ben Zobrist (111 wRC+) or Daniel Descalso (103 wRC+) would be the value bat in the leadoff spot. Either is below $4K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel. LHBs have just a .317 wOBA against Urena over the last calendar year, but that’s partially the effect of pitching in such a negative run environment all the time as they also have a 42.6 Hard% against him. With three teams above five implied runs tonight and the Cubs just below (4.91), it’s possible bats could go under-owned in this spot.

Edinson Volquez gets his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2018. Volquez has not been effective for some time now, posting a 6.61 K/9 and 4.58 xFIP over 189.1 innings in 2016 and following with a 7.9 K/9 and 4.78 xFIP over 92.1 innings in 2017. He returns to face a tough lineup in a hitter’s park with the wind blowing out to RF. Volquez is especially vulnerable vs. lefties (.368 xwOBA since 2016 vs. LHB). Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber all figure to be good plays here with nice upside. Zobrist ($4.0 on DK) is leading off and showed he still has some pop left with a .337 xwOBA vs RHP last year. Rizzo (.385 xwOBA in 2018) and Schwarber (.358) are more expensive but should fare well hitting in the middle of the order. Kris Bryant is another option batting 2nd, he also hit RHP well last year (.350 xwOBA). Javy Baez (.327 xWOBA in 2018 vs. RHP) feels a tad overpriced coming in at $5.3k on DK and $4.4k on FD, but is always a threat to go deep.

Trevor Williams is a strong contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) with just an 18.1 K%. His strikeout rate has spiked to 28.1% over the last month, but that's a bit misleading with just a 9.1 SwStr%. Still an improvement over his 7.7% mark for the season. This has increased Williams' price above $9K on either site, yet the Cubs are also implied for five runs even tonight. While the forecast does call for a light wind blowing out, cooler temperatures could offset that effect. It's possible both sides are over-valued here. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .290 wOBA against Williams this year and while xwOBA raises both sides substantially (34 to 49 points), that still only puts him in a league average range within six points of .320 either way. Each of the first five Cubs in the order are between a 120 and 140 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Ben Zobrist (126 wRC+, .155 ISO) is below a .190 ISO. These Cubs are certainly playable at mostly reasonable prices, except Javier Baez (132 wRC+, .270 ISO), if not paying up for pitching.

Chris Archer is a pitcher who can rack up some fantasy points (24.9 K%), but his hard contact rates (89.3 mph aEV) doesn't always make him the most trustworthy pitcher and a well disciplined Chicago offense (101 wRC+, 12.4 K-BB% vs RHP) doesn't necessarily seem like the best matchup for him. Still, a 4.97 implied run line for the Cubs at Wrigley is a bit higher than expected against Archer. Weather may have some impact, but not just because the wind is blowing out. There is rain in the area today and winds are expected to be changing directions. The Cubbies do profile well here though. Each of the first six hitters in the order are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season and LHBs have a .354 wOBA with a 41.2 Hard% against Archer this year. The four LHBs in that grouping are all above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this year with Daniel Murphy (127 wRC+, .199 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .211 ISO) having the most value in the top third of the lineup. Kyle Schwarber (126 wRC+, .271 ISO), Ben Zobrist (127 wRC+, .157 ISO) and due to positional scarcity, even Javier Baez (134 wRC+, .275 ISO) at an expensive price, should play here as well.

The Cubs just barely exceed five implied runs (5.01), but are one of just three teams to do so tonight. Matt Harvey struck out a season high 10 batters last time out, but that was the Padres and he's otherwise topped out at seven and even that only once. He still has an ERA with estimators well above four this season and LHBs have a .355 wOBA against him. Anthony Rizzo (138 wRC+, .221 ISO), former teammate Daniel Murphy (125 wRC+, .189 ISO) and Ben Zobrist (129 wRC+, .167 ISO) all seem good bets here. Be warned that Rizzo and Murphy both have a wRC+ below -30 over the last week (yes, that's a negative), perhaps the reason for the lineup flip flop tonight.