Blaine Hardy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The afternoon slate consists of four games on both sites and includes both of the two most positive run environments in baseball (Texas and Colorado). There are actually three pretty decent pitchers in those games (Marco Gonzales, Chris Archer, and German Marquez), holding two of the four teams (Rangers and Pirates) a bit below five implied runs, but theses four teams still comprise the top half of an eight team board with no team from either of the other two games owning a higher run line. Patrick Corbin is the lone $10K pitcher on either site. He's allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts, but no more than four and has gone at least six innings in each, striking out 25 of his last 76 batters over his last three. His 30.7 K% is tops on the board for the entire day among regular starters this season as is his 2.95 SIERA. The Phillies have an 88 wRC+ vs LHP with a lower 22.7 K% and elite walk rate (10.7%), but with less power (10.1 HR/FB). They've also picked up a couple of competent RH bats recently, but there's not nearly enough to pull players off of Corbin here. The next most interesting arm is his opponent, Vince Velasquez, who is not very consistent, but has a 27.4 K%, 3.74 SIERA and .294 xwOBA that's exactly the same as Corbin's. He's coming off 6.1 shutout innings against Miami (seven Ks). The Diamondbacks have also improved their lineup with health and trades recently, but still have an 87 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP this year. The Tigers and Angels are the destination for cheap SP2 types on this slate, though Blaine Hardy is up to $7.2K on DraftKings. He last one-hit Oakland through seven innings with six strikeouts and has been a competent arm for the Tigers this year (18.2 K%, .297 xwOBA) split between the rotation and bullpen. He'll face a still Mike Trout-less Angels' offense with an 85 wRC+ vs LHP. Jaime Barria has gone nine starts without more than five strikeouts and has just a 13.6 K% over the last month. He's not an exceptional contact manager either (.356 xwOBA, 88.9 mph aEV, 8.0% Barrels/BBE). The appeal here is simply in the most negative run environment on the board and the opponent (Tigers 73 wRC+ on the road, 75 wRC+ vs RHP and 52 wRC+ on the road - they have a sub-9.0 HR/FB in all three instances as well).

Players looking to drop down below the highest priced pitchers may find themselves struggling to locate high value arms in the middle or lower price ranges. Zack Godley isn't much less expensive than those arms, but may be the best players can hope for. His 2018 has not been as successful as his 2017 season, but it's been closest over the last month in which his strikeout rate has risen 25.6% with a 57.5 GB%, though he still has a 9.9 BB% and 41.1 Hard% over that span. He may be unworthy of his price tag tonight in a neutral matchup, but he's facing the Marlins (86 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) in Miami. Players paying up for high priced pitching on DraftKings are also going to need lower priced compliments. For less than $7K on DraftKings, a few pitchers may fill that spot. Blaine Hardy ($6.6K) has pitched reasonably well for Detroit (3.75 FIP, .312 xwOBA) and is hosting an Oakland offense that's struggled with LHP (89 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%). Steven Matz ($6.1K) is in a Coors bounce back spot and in fact, has faced many difficult lineups over the last month or so. Over those last six starts, his ground ball rate is up 54.1% and Nolan Arenado at Coors is one of just three HRs he's allowed. In one of the most negative run environments in baseball, he gets one of the coldest offenses on the board (31 wRC+, 26.3 K%, 6.7 HR/FB last seven days). Chad Bettis ($5.4K) has allowed five or more runs in five straight. The only game outside Coors in that span was in Texas. His strikeout rate is actually slightly up this month (19.4%). He’s been hit hard for sure, but his .343 wOBA over the last 30 days is the same as his season rate. Coors magnifies most flaws, while San Francisco masks them. The Giants have a 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP and 3.9 HR/FB over the last week. If absolutely necessary, Austin Bibens-Dirx ($4.6K) is not good and he is at home in the worst run environment on the board, but he's facing the Padres (72 wRC+, 20.5 K-BB% on the road, 81 wRC+, 18 K-BB% vs RHP).

The Twins have a stunningly low 7.0 HR/FB against LHP this year. The return of Miguel Sano (118 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has been part of the solution, but only two other batters have hit southpaws well over the last calendar year. They've hit them really well, however. One is obviously Brian Dozier (145 wRC+, .260 ISO), who has a reasonable price tag (< $4.5K) in this spot. LHBs have a .356 wOBA against Blaine Hardy since last season. The other big bat is a surprise and could be a low priced SS GPP option. Ehire Adrianza (147 wRC+, .200 ISO) bats eighth, but has been a pleasant surprise against lefties. Another thing to consider if considering stacking this offense with a 4.58 implied run line is that Hardy has a .337 wOBA against same-handed hitters that xwOBA spikes to .373.

The Red Sox have one of the top Vegas run lines on the board (5.33) at home against Blaine Hardy, who hasn't lit the world on fire, but hasn't embarrassed himself in his four starts (no more than two ERs in any). In 59.1 innings, mostly out of the bullpen since last season, RHBs have a .355 wOBA, LHBs a .323 wOBA, but xwOBA reverses that to .337 and .367. Same handed batters actually have a hard hit rate 10 points higher against him too (42.4% to 32.8%). Regardless, J.D. Martinez (166 wRC+, .425 xwOBA, .307 ISO, 53.4 Hard% vs LHP last calendar year) remains an elite bat tonight and a potential bargain, even at $5K. Eduardo Nunez (71 wRC+, .127 ISO) costs around $3K on either site, but has a lineup leading 210 wRC+ over the last week if players are looking for cheaper exposure to this lineup. Sam Travis makes an appearance for less than $3K as well, but his 123 wRC+ in limited appearances against LHP over the last calendar year at the major league level is not supported well by .318 xwOBA andn .125 ISO. He had just an 84 wRC+ and 32.6 K% overall at AAA this season as well.

The Minnesota Twins have a 5.09 implied run line against the Detroit bullpen, which will start the game with Blaine Hardy, who threw a season high 79 pitches in the first start of his major league career on May 13th. Brian Dozier (167 wRC+, .299 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is the only significant threat against southpaws in this lineup and perhaps he'll get to face Hardy twice, but the Twins could be seeing more right-handed pitching the second and third time through the order.