Brad Peacock Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Brad Peacock and James Paxton sounds like a pitcher’s duel or at least a high upside daily fantasy pitching matchup. They have a combined 54.7 K% with neither owning an xwOBA above .300. Take a closer look though. Peacock combines just an 8.8 SwStr% with a 90 mph aEV, but somehow has allowed just 6.7% Barrels/BBE and struck out 24.2% of batters faced. Over the last month, he’s down to a 21.2 K% with a 4.90 FIP even though his ERA has remained below four. On the season, he has a 5.01 DRA. There appears to be some luck in his game. However, since he has a massive platoon split over the last calendar year (RHBs .251 wOBA, LHBS .373), the best bets to exploit this potential edge appear to be Brett Gardner (97 wRC+, 188 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), if out of the leadoff spot, Aaron Hicks (133 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Didi Gregorius (125 wRC+, .232 ISO). With Aaron Judge (113 wRC+, .174 ISO) expected back tonight, the Yankee lineup could lean predominantly right-handed and if this is the case, it would be something more in Peacock’s favor, although Yankee righties hit same-handed pitching extremely well.

James Paxton is one of the highest upside pitchers in the league, but does not escape scrutiny here either. He rebounded from troublesome starts against the Mets and Blue Jays to fan seven White Sox in six innings with two runs, but his 5.71 ERA since returning comes with a 4.61 SIERA and FIP, along with a .334 xwOBA. He has a 41.4% 95+ mph EV mark on the season and even admitted that his knee still wasn’t 100% upon returning from the DL. A Houston lineup not at full strength still has enough right-handed pop to punish a compromised pitcher (RHBs have a .304 wOBA against Paxton last calendar year). Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .255 ISO) is back, joining Alex Bregman (180 wRC+, .313 ISO), Yulieski Gurriel (135 wRC+, .210 ISO), Robinson Chirinos (117 wRC+, .194 ISO) and even Jake Marisnick (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in southpaw destruction over the last 12 months. Important to note that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, giving a dangerous park a further run and power boost tonight.

A matchup with the Red Sox might scare some people off, but Boston’s lineup without JD Martinez and with 2 weak-hitting catchers in the order isn’t too terrifying. Peacock has been solid this year with a 3.59 ERA / 4.14 xFIP / 3.89 SIERA with a 25.6% K rate and 7.2% BB rate. More impressively, Statcast has him at just a .267 xwOBA allowed with a tiny 5.5% barrel rate. Peacock will be pitching at home where he has performed much better since 2018, with just a .263 xwOBA allowed and 32.3% K rate at home versus a .294 xwOBA allowed and 29.8% K rate on the road. Even with JD Martinez out of the order, the Red Sox still have a decent order that is plenty capable of blowing up. The night slate is pretty dry for pitching options, however, and Peacock has decent upside given the solid K rate without breaking the bank at $9k on Draftkings just $8.1k on Fanduel. The Red Sox have a 4.02 implied total vs. Peacock and the Astros.

Brad Peacock struck out 12 Royals in seven innings of three hit, shutout ball last time out, one start after being clobbered by Minnesota. He’ll be facing another runt of the AL Central tonight in Detroit (77 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP, 6.7 HR/FB at home). While his most recent performance has pushed Peacock’s strikeout rate up to 24.7% on the season, there are still some concerns here. Namely a below average SwStr rate (9.3%), a 43.6 Z-O-Swing% that’s third worst on the board, and an 89.4 mph aEV that’s unbefitting his 5.7% Barrels/BBE mark with just a 39% ground ball rate. Somehow, this combination has still resulted in the second lowest xwOBA on the slate (.264), though his ERA (4.30) and DRA (4.12) are nothing to write home about. At least his SIERA (3.87) is below four. It’s really the matchup that makes this though. Peacock costs just $8.5K on either site here.

On the other side, Matthew Boyd had the best xwOBA on the board (.254) and it is completely supported by his 30.3% 95+ mph EV and 14.5 SwStr% (both also best). The predominantly right-handed order of the Astros have been hell on LHP (140 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB), but Boyd has been so good (25.8 K-BB%, 38.7 GB%, 13.7 IFFB%, 2.86 ERA, 3.09 SIERA, 2.24 DRA) that he deserves a strong look here, especially on DraftKings, where he’s less than $9K. Boyd has thrown seven straight quality starts and the two times he’s allowed three runs in that span (@BOS, vPIT), he’s completed seven innings.

Early ownership projections (premium membership required) suggest Brad Peacock could be a popular secondary pitcher on DK tonight against the Royals at home and why not. It’s a negative run environment against a bad team. However, Brad Peacock has struggled this year more than you might think. His 90.6 Z-Contact% and 46.4 Z-O-Swing% are both near the bottom of the board. He somehow has a .283 xwOBA that’s 28 points below his actual, but a single digit SwStr% and 90.2 mph aEV make that a bit suspect. The Royals jumped all over another struggling Astro last night (Collin McHugh) with two grand slams and Peacock has been pretty bad against LHBs (.376 wOBA, 43.1 Hard% last calendar year). That should put both Adalberto Mondesi (117 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Ryan O’Hearn (160 wRC+, .318 ISO) on the radar tonight. Both are above a 150 wRC+ over the last week as well. Alex Gordon (107 wRC+, .172 ISO) would also be reasonable on FanDuel ($3.6K), but costs nearly $5K on DraftKings. At just 3.5 implied runs, Kansas City bats are sure to be contrarian in a spot where they might be stronger than it appears.

The Yankees have the highest run line on the board (4.59) against Lance McCullers, who has all the talent in the world (25.8 K%, 12.0 SwStr%, 4.25 ERA, 3.41 SIERA, 3.52 DRA), but is a difficult sell even at a lower than normal cost, due to injury issues that have plagued him throughout the season. He hasn't thrown more than 83 pitches in a major league outing since July and has thrown just three innings in one post-season outing this month, in which 10 of the 13 batters he faced either struck out or put it on the ground. That's what he does when he's on: strikeouts and ground balls. It could be another all-out, short outing with Brad Peacock waiting in the wings to throw multiple innings behind him. Batters from either side put the ball on the ground above 58% of the time with a hard hit rate below 30% against him this year, though RHBs gained an advantage in the peripherals, strangely enough, with a 15.3 K-BB%, .332 wOBA and six of his eight HRs allowed (LHBs 21.5 K-BB%, .267 wOBA). This could mean that Aaron Judge (179 wRC+, .364 ISO, 45.1 Hard%, 42.1 FB%) should be the batter players want, especially at a reduced cost. While all of the attention had been paid to his strikeouts this post-season, he did homer last night and has hit the ball extremely hard (three extra-base hits, including two HRs), when he's not striking out. Especially notable should be the sizable strike zone called against him, which really makes his post-season results look much worse than the process. Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier and surprise starter Austin Romine are the only three batters in the lineup below a .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Frazier is the cheap choice at 3B today and did have a 101 wRC+ and .173 ISO vs RHP this year. Current Yankee starters have little career data against Lance McCullers (none with a HR or more than nine PAs). While it's expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn't expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight's home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he's leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).

It might surprise some to realize that Brad Peacock has the highest strikeout rate (29.5%) among the four starting pitchers today. While he generally doesn't go very deep in games (more than six innings just twice, more than 6.1 innings just once), he should be expected to have a decent sized margin for error as far as post-season games are concerned with the Astros up two games to none. That's not to say that Houston is willing to sacrifice a game, but the hook won't be as immediate as it should be on the other side of this contest. The Red Sox have the second highest implied run line (4.49) and there is a bit of discrepancy in Peacock's price tag between sites. His $10.2K DraftKings cost makes him the second most expensive arm, but he's the third most expensive on FanDuel ($8.6K) by over $1K. Players probably shouldn't entertain most Boston RHBs today (.229 wOBA, 20.5 K-BB%, 50.3 GB%, 22.5 Hard% against Peacock this year). None in today's lineup even had a wRC+ above 101 or ISO above .190 against RHP this year. LHBs are a different story (.331 wOBA, 35.2 GB%, 31.5 Hard%) with Mitch Moreland (101 wRC+, .214 ISO vs RHP) a particularly strong value play for $3.3K or less on either site and Andrew Benintendi (111 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP) a solid OF option today. Kevin's forecast believes the weather will be a factor in this one, not from a rain standpoint, but with 15 to 30 mile per hour winds blowing out to center, making a normally power suppressing park (though an extremely positive run environment) potentially play more power friendly. Ted Barrett is listed as the Home Plate Umpire by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders. In 323 games, batters have a 19.9 K% and 7.8 BB% with him behind the dish. Boost Stats show him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (0.98 K-Boost, 1.03 BB-Boost).

It's hard to look past Brad Peacock (30.3 K%) and Eduardo Rodriguez (26 K%) when the next highest strikeout rate on the board is Jake Faria (23.9 K%) at Yankee Stadium, but both are facing each other in Boston in not so ideal matchups. Peacock has managed contact well too (2.6 Hard-Soft%). That and his strikeout rate takes some of the concern out of a 36.9 GB% at Fenway. The Red Sox also have just a 9.9 HR/FB at home and even if an 18.5 K% at home is going to impact his strikeout rate, he's in a better position than any other pitcher on the slate to absorb some loss there and still be effective. Eduardo Rodriguez has a 12.5 SwStr% or better in four straight starts. He too is an extreme fly ball pitcher (35 GB%), but just a league average contact manager, facing an offense with just a 16.6 K% against LHP. His use may be more difficult to justify. Sonny Gray is the favorite of the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. He's been inconsistent, striking out five or fewer in five of his last eight starts, but exactly nine in each of the other three, still good for a 22.3 K% over that span, in which he’s also allowed nine HRs. His hard hit rate has been below 30% in five of those starts too, but have 35% in the other three. The Rays are a high strikeout offense (24.9% vs RHP), but also have quite a bit of power (16.9 HR/FB vs RHP). PlateIQ shows tonight's confirmed lineup with a .305 wOBA, .147 ISO and 21.4 K% vs RHP, a little less of both power and strikeouts. Gray's $11.7K cost on DraftKings might be a little aggressive. Danny Duffy and Kyle Hendricks are the other options tonight. Duffy struck out just two his last time out and is not an optimal choice against a Detroit offense that should still have some potency vs LHP, but he did strikeout eight the start prior, in his return from a month long absence. He’s allowed 37 HRs to RHBs over the last two seasons though, and Detroit is likely to load up on batters from that side. Hendricks could be useful in theory, but is a bit scary in the sense that he’s pitching for a team that clinched and partied all night against a team hanging onto wild card hopes by a thread. A loss tonight eliminates the Cardinals officially. That said, a league average strikeout rate with a 50% ground ball rate should probably be considered today, although his $10.5K DraftKings cost is also aggressive.