Braden Shipley Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Rubby De La Rosa is returning from an elbow injury to make a brief start tonight due to a strict 50-pitch limit, and Braden Shipley is expected to follow him out of the bullpen. De La Rosa has only made eight starts this year, but he allowed hard contact at a 32.8% clip and will likely not have his best stuff in his return. De La Rosa has also struggled mightily against left-handed batters in his career (4.67 xFIP, .366 wOBA allowed). It’s also a tough matchup against the resilient, patient Giants offense in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona. As for Shipley, he has allowed hard contact at a 41.7% rate and has a 5.52 SIERA in his eight starts. In other words, feel free to load up all the Giants left-handed batters in tournaments. Brandon Belt (128 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .188 ISO vs RHP), Angel Pagan (115 wRC+, .339 wOBA, .142 ISO vs RHP), and Brandon Crawford (.193 ISO vs RHP) would be our top targets.

Braden Shipley is pitching at Coors Field tonight, one of the least favorable environments for pitchers to take the mound in the league. The home run environment for right-handed power and left-handed power at Coors Field is rated by RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors as a 1.23 and 1.20, respectively. The advantageous home run hitting environment for LHBs is not good news for Shipley, since Shipley is surrendering a 45% flyball percentage this year, paired with an above average hard contact percentage of 39%. Any of the three Rockies LHBs with wRC+ totals over 120 are in play tonight, including David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, and of course, Carlos Gonzalez.

Batters from either side have a .360+ wOBA and 40+ Hard% against Braden Shipley (14.8 K%) so far. There will be plenty of opportunities for hard contact tonight. Joey Votto (167 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP) is an obvious top First Base choice on FanDuel ($3.6K), but is nearly $2K more expensive on DraftKings. He arrives in Arizona with a 230 wRC+ over the last week. Adam Duvall (114 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the other strong bat against RHP with a viable $3.1K price tag on FanDuel. While a few other Cincinnati bats appear playable at a reasonable cost, none really stand out.

Braden Shipley has remarkably only allowed two earned runs in his last three starts and currently sports a dazzling 2.96 ERA that couldn’t be flukier. This is evidenced by a 5.24 SIERA, 17.0% strikeout rate, and 12.0% walk rate. He also has a 5.11 xFIP and 41.5% hard contact rate allowed to left-handed batters, putting the Mets lefties firmly in play. Jose Reyes (.160 ISO vs RHP) seems to be healthy after being activated from the disabled list over the weekend, notching three hits and steal already. Curtis Granderson (.205 ISO vs RHP) looks to take advantage of Shipley as he owns a 35% hard-hit rate and 44% fly ball rate that should play well in the hitters’ environment of Chase Field. Jay Bruce has massive home run upside in this matchup with his 39% hard-hit rate and .291 ISO versus right-handed pitching.

Shipley will only be making the third start of his big league career tonight as he takes on the Brewers at home in hitter-friendly Chase Field. We obviously have a very limited sample size to properly judge Shipley but it hasn't been good to this point. Shipley has done a decent job keeping the ball on the ground (51.4% GB%), however, most of his struggles stem from a high walk rate (10.2%) and astronomical hard contact rate (47.2%). This puts the Brewers offense firmly in play as an under the radar option. Ryan Braun (130 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP) is far and away the top option in play for this young Milwaukee lineup. The other best options to consider for stacks are Jonathan Villar (108 wRC+, .340 wOBA vs RHP) and Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.198 ISO vs RHP). Chris Carter (.230 ISO vs RHP) is always in play in plus matchups given his multiple home run upside on any given night.

Braden Shipley is a former 15th overall pick back in 2013, who has disappointed at the higher levels with just a 17.8 K% in 156 AA innings last year, followed by a 15.5 K% in 119 AAA innings this season. The Brewers have a league high 26.2 K% vs RHP, but the absence of Chris Carter probably drops that slightly tonight. He had about a 1.3 GB/FB in the minors this season, without much of a platoon split in his power numbers (four HRs to LHBs, three to RHBs), so while it's not immediately obvious whether attacking with a weak lineup is a good idea or not, Ryan Braun (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) remains an option, while Kirk Nieuwenhuis (92 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) may have a bit more value batting 5th for less than $4K on either site. He has a 313 wRC+ and 71.4 Hard% over the last week.