Brandon Guyer Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
A top offense tonight includes cheap upper lineup exposure
The Indians are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.23) in one of the more positive run environments in baseball in Cleveland. It's generally pretty obvious against a RHP and mostly the same against a LHP, but with a couple of wrinkles. Since RHBs have a .339 wOBA with 20 HRs against Danny Duffy this season, the Indians have snuck Yandy Diaz into the second spot. Diaz has just a .232 wOBA and .281 xwOBA in fewer than 30 PAs against southpaws this year, but the lineup spot in matchup demand attention at a low price point. Especially if rostering the two bats sandwiching him: Francisco Lindor (164 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (126 wRC+, .207 ISO). Further affordable exposure can be found in the fifth spot in Brandon Guyer (125 wRC+, .233 ISO), who could be a pinch hit risk late in the game.
Low implied run total, but stacked with quality bats against LHP
If players are looking for bats from a lineup under four implied runs, they're probably looking at the Cleveland lineup. David Price has been quite good lately, striking out 18 of his last 52 batters and owning a 3.42 SIERA and .311 xwOBA over the last month, while RHBs have just a .306 wOBA against him this year. He still pitches at Fenway and against a dangerous lineup this afternoon. In fact, six of the nine batters he faces are above a 125 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year and Edwin Encarnacion (111 wRC+, .209 ISO) is not even one of them. High cost bats like Francisco Lindor (173 wRC+, .240 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (163 wRC+, .282 ISO) can be supplemented with much cheaper ones like Yandy Diaz (140 wRC+, .100 ISO), Brandon Guyer (127 wRC+, .193 ISO), or even a punt catcher like Roberto Perez (162 wRC+, .244 ISO).
Elite bats mixed with value plays all hit LHP hard
Great park, marginal LHP (RHBs ..327 wOBA, .348 xwOBA this season). This is your daily reminder to use Francisco Lindor (171 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .280 ISO) in your daily fantasy lineups. The Indians have an implied run line of just 4.56 at Fenway, but it's still fifth best on the board. More affordable exposure to this lineup can be found with Yandy Diaz (139 wRC+, .104 iSO), Brandon Guyer (127 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Yan Gomes (140 wRC+, .252 ISO).
No One Is Playing This Guy Tonight
Trying to find a value hitter with low ownership is going to be tough tonight with so many options to pay up for. One of my favorite boom/bust type plays tonight is Brandon Guyer. He has a .253 ISO with a .372 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, and he has an 84.2% contact rate against them. It's always risky taking a guy that could get PH for, but the upside is certainly worth a shot at this price. He's a very good low-ball hitter, and Brian Johnson throws a majority of his pitches low and outside. This doesn't always work out, but the upside at this low-price tag makes it worth a shot in large field tournaments.
Top bats and value plays from a top projected lineup this afternoon
Only the Yankees top the Indians' 5.18 run line this afternoon on basically every slate available. RHBs have a .350 wOBA and 36.9 GB% against Adalberto Mejia for his career. Most simply, Francisco Lindor (157 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (148 wRC+, .248 ISO) have torched LHP almost as well as RHP over the last calendar year. Brandon Guyer (148 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Yan Gomes (137 wRC+, .255 ISO) are value options lower in the order, though you may have to worry about Guyer potentially being hit for. On the other side, while Carlos Carrasco is the clear top pitcher on this board, he does have an 89.3 mph aEV this season and LHBs have been about average against him since last season (.314 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). Don't sleep entirely on Eddie Rosario (151 wRC+, .288 ISO) or even Jorge Polanco (157 wRC+, .219 ISO) near the top of the order on a small slate.
The overwhelming chalk gets the top park and a pitcher with a .377 wOBA against RHBs
The Indians are the over-whelming chalk tonight. Not only are they in the best park, but they are facing a southpaw (Martin Perez) who has allowed a .377 wOBA to RHBs over the last year. Not only are they the only offense above five implied runs, but they are well above that mark (5.59). Francisco Lindor (162 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (160 wRC+, .274 ISO) are top overall bats tonight. Edwin Encarnacion (92 wRC+, .189 ISO) is a solid first base bat in a great spot. Brandon Guyer (133 wRC+, .165 ISO) is an affordable outfield bat with a decent lineup spot (fifth). Roberto Perez (160 wRC+, .261 ISO) is a punt catcher.
Outfield of Values
The Cleveland outfield is loaded with value options tonight. On FanDuel, all of Brandon Guyer, Melky Cabrera and Rajai Davis are at bare minimum salary, while on DK/FDRFT, they are cheap enough to be playable in all formats. There is some pinch hit risk for Guyer and Davis, but it's baked into the salary. I might lean Cabrera in cash games being a switch hitter, but in tournaments, I prefer the power of Guyer with his .219 ISO and 50% fly ball rate against left-handed pitching. He should get a strong lineup spot and see plenty of runners on base ahead of him.
Cheap Bat From A Top Offense
The Indians are one of the top offenses on the day and expensive as well. Brandon Guyer has been given a nice bump in the lineup at the 5 hole which is a great cash game value and tournament play to help you afford the other top end Indians. Guyer also has hit lefties well this season and has a .224 ISO and .367 wOBA against them.
Cleveland bats project well despite recent improvement from Danny Duffy
The Tribe is one of six offenses to reach five implied runs tonight (5.19) despite Danny Duffy pitching better recently. He has gone at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and has at least seven Ks in three of his last four. That’s all great news, but he still has an 11.8 BB% over that seven start span and still struggles against RHBs (.342 wOBA, 35.4 Hard%, 35 GB% since last season). .While Duffy's fly ball lean would generally be an asset in a run positive, but power negative park, Kevin's forecast calls for hot and humid in Kansas City tonight and he has already allowed seven HRs in six home starts this year. Jose Ramirez (156 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Francisco Lindor (168 wRC+, .239 ISO) are top bats at the position tonight. Edwin Encarnacion (99 wRC+, .207 ISO) is formidable as well. Brandon Guyer (121 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Yan Gomes (157 wRC+, .278 ISO) are value bats. Gomes has five extra-base hits (two HRs) in 23 career PAs against Duffy.
Worth The Pinch Hit Risk Today
With the limited value options tonight, I'm looking at the power upside guys that are cheap. Danny Duffy has pitched better recently, but his numbers against righties are still really concerning. He has a .359 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 39.6% hard-hit rate against righties this season. That with a lower strikeout rate and high walk rate show signs of command issues. Guyer has a .228 ISO with a .421 CXwOBA and an 82.5% contact rate against left-handed pitching this season. He has the power upside, and at his price, I'm willing to roll the dice; just always remember he's a pinch hit risk.