Brandon McCarthy Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While Brandon McCarthy has been pitching well as of late, since changing his pitch mix to rely less on fastballs, Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) may be the affordable leadoff bat players who are paying up for pitching are looking for. He costs just $2.4K on FanDuel and less than $4K on DraftKings and has a 431 wRC+ over the last week (56.3 Hard%). Cody Bellinger (140 wRC+, .296 ISO) is back in the cleanup spot and has a 244 wRC+ over the last week as well.

There are so many expensive, high upside pitchers on Friday night that some strong potential values below $10K could fly under the radar. Vince Velasquez costs between $8-9K against the Brewers, who have a 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. This should turn a lot of players off. He has the second highest strikeout rate (29.2%) of any pitcher below $10K on both sites tonight and that's up to 35% with a 13.9 SwStr% over the last month. He’s also walked more than two just twice this year, while his .279 xwOBA this season is just five points behind Chris Sale. Despite the power in the Milwaukee lineup, the overall matchup is not bad (97 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB% vs RHP). Masahiro Tanaka has allowed nine HRs over his last five starts and has just a 20.5 K% over the last month. However, he’s pitched in very few negative run or power environments this season and his SwStr rate (14.1%) remains exactly the same as his season rate over the last 30 days. He’s also facing the coldest offense in baseball. The peripherals for the Mets haven’t been bad, but perhaps in his case, their 4.1 HR/FB over the last week is more important. Walker Buehler's .256 xwOBA is behind just Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander among those with more than two starts on this board. The main strikes against him tonight are an Atlanta offense with an 11.4 K-BB% vs RHP and a workload that hasn't seen him reach 100 pitches yet. Caleb Smith has the highest strikeout rate (29.6%) of the under-$10K crowd and that may still have some regression in it. He's in a nice spot against the Padres (17.5 K-BB% vs LHP), whom he recently threw seven innings against. Zack Greinke's hard contact issues (10.4% Barrels/BBE) are a concern, but not a death blow in Coors (Rockies (74 wRC+ vs RHP). Additional SP2 types on DraftKings might be Brandon McCarthy, who has had newfound success since changing his pitch mix, though the recent strikeout rate is not supported by his 7.4 SwStr% over the last month. Luke Weaver struggles to go deep in games, but costs less than $8K in Cincinnati. Marco Gonzalez struggles to miss bats, but has been going deep into games consistently. Jhoulys Chacin rarely goes beyond 90 pitches, but his strikeouts are up over the last month (23%) and he finds himself in a high upside spot in Philadelphia (26.9 K% vs RHP).

The holiday finishes off with a difficult four game slate with two of the games (in Atlanta and Colorado) holding some degree of PPD risk via the early forecast. The top pitching option is also a bit risky, but Vince Velasquez has a 28.4 K% and his .287 xwOBA is behind only Verlander and deGrom for the entire day. He's allowed nine HRs over his last seven starts, but his non-FIP estimators are all below four and he gets a park upgrade in LA (NL) against an offense that has been just average against RHP this season (102 wRC+, 21.7 K%). If the second game of the double-header plays in Atlanta, Brandon McCarthy has allowed just two runs over his last 11.2 innings (13 Ks). He's thrown 48 cutters and 43 curveballs over that span, moving away from a sinker that has a .379 xwOBA and just a 10.6% whiff rate, according to Statcast. While the cutter has a .361 xwOBA, the whiff rate more than doubles (22.1%) and the curve has an xwOBA below .200. He'll face a predominantly left-handed Mets lineup that has not been confirmed yet (the first game is still being played), but it's been right-handed batters (.390 wOBA) that have given him more trouble this season (LHBs .328 wOBA).

Gerrit Cole (40.8 K%, 16 SwStr%, .255 xwOBA) and Chris Sale (34.9 K%, 16.2 SwStr%, .254 xwOBA) appear nearly interchangeable atop tonight's board. They're opponents each have a nearly identical 2.7 implied run line at the bottom of the board. Both are pitching in dome capable stadiums without weather concerns in negative run environments. Potential lineup surprises, an extreme umpire assignment and ownership projections (all three available to premium subscribers) would seem to make the difference tonight. The Rays have had some success against pitchers who feature fastballs and curveballs. Sale features sliders and changeups nearly half the time, two pitches the Rays, as a team, have had less success against via Fangraphs weighted pitch metrics. Cole has failed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first two times this season in his last two starts, but has remained consistent in his pitch counts. The Giants are not pushovers (104 wRC+, 23.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also have an 18.3 K-BB% vs RHP. Quite a bit behind those two is Trevor Bauer. His 27.2 K% this season is just outside the top five on tonight’s board, but improvements in contact management this season have driven him to a .290 xwOBA that ties for third. He’s gotten at least two outs in the seventh in six of his nine starts this year. The Cubs (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP) at Wrigley may be one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight. Other interesting arms include Trevor Cahill, who struck out just one Boston batter in his last start, but has struck out 20 in 12 innings at home this season and has the second best SwStr rate (14.7%) on the board. Jeremy Hellickson has doubled up on his curveball usage (24%) and has a career high 21.5 K% with a .296 xwOBA. Zack Wheeler has added a splitter that's been as inconsistent as he's been, but he has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four and his best start of the season (7 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 7 K) against the team he faces tonight (Marlins). Each of the last three pitchers cost between $7-8K on either site tonight. At the bottom of the board, Brock Stewart has elite strikeout rates in the minors that he's failed to reach in the majors and may be lucky to complete five innings, but he's near minimum price with the best park adjusted matchup on the board (Rockies 63 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP). Brandon McCarthy rode increased velocity and 50% cutters to a season high eight strikeouts last time ou t and is in another high strikeout upside spot in Philadelphia (26.7 K% vs RHP) tonight. Caleb Smith may not be able to sustain his 30+% strikeout rate (10.6 SwStr% last 30 days), but faces a Mets' offense (69 wRC+, 26.7 K%, 6.0 HR/FB vs LHP) with much of their right-handed power disabled at the moment.

The Chicago Cubs have a second best 4.82 implied run line against Brandon McCarthy, who has allowed 14 ERs over his last 8.1 innings and has exceeded 5.1 innings just once this year. His 6.1 SwStr% and .361 xwOBA are both worst on the board. Since last season (just over 280 batters faced from each side), RHBs have a .344 wOBA against him, while LHBs are at just .304, though xwOBA tightens the gap to .323 and .309. Stack you Cubbies, weather permitting. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber each exceed a 130 wRC+ and .230 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, while Javier Baez (101 wRC+, .216 ISO) and Ian Happ (106 wRC+, .255 ISO) have flashes significant power as well. Contreras (377), Albert Almora (233), Bryant (211), Rizzo (211) and Addison Russell all top a 200 wRC+ over the last week as well.

The big three (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Chris Sale) all average more than six and a half innings per start over the last two calendar years, making those bullpens likely for the smallest workloads tonight. Although, an interesting scenario could develop with potential weather issues in Washington where players could see more of a mediocre Washington bullpen (though they have a top seven 16.3 K-BB%) and great Yankee one (24.7 K-BB%) should there be a lengthy delay tonight. The same could be said in Atlanta for the Cubs and Braves, though Brandon McCarthy barely averages more than five innings anyway. The Cubs have the highest negative margin between their pen ERA (2.66) and their FIP (3.80) due to an 11.9 K-BB%. The Braves have a league worst 13.3 BB% that pushes both their xFIP and SIERA well above four. The Miami bullpen will likely be at it early for Elisier Hernandez too. The complete opposite of the Cubs, they have a 5.43 ERA, but the largest positive gap from a 4.30 FIP that's still a bottom six mark in the league. Garrett Richards has averaged fewer than five innings per start the last two calendar years. The Angels are a mediocre pen almost any way it's looked at, but are one of the few teams these days that don't seem to have a multi-inning weapon. Walker Buehler has not exceeded 95 pitches, but has been very efficient. The Dodger pen has a 4.39 FIP partially due to the unexpected troubles of their closer this year. Lastly, Trevor Cahill has not pitched in 11 days due to an elbow issue, but has completed six innings in three of four starts this year. Should they be cautious, the A's have several multi-inning options. Only Petit, Treinen and Trevino have thrown innings the last two days (all two innings each).

Extreme may be an accurate way to describe Wednesday night's five game slate, or at least the pitching choices available on it. Max Scherzer (40.4 K%), Justin Verlander (34.5 K%) and Chris Sale (34.2 K%) are all available between $11K to $12.8K on either site. FanDuel has a wider range of mid-priced options, but DraftKings only has one pitcher priced between $6.5K to $11.8K. That pitcher, Walker Buehler (31.4 K%) and Trevor Cahill (33.7 K%) puts 50% of the slate above a 30% strikeout rate. Garrett Richards (28.8 K%) is available for just $5.8K on DK against the Astros. Brandon McCarthy and Tyler Chatwood are the only two pitchers on the board (both in the same game) with an xwOBA above .311 this season. Remove Elieser Hernandez's three innings and that number drops to .302 and that game (Cubs @ Braves) carries some PPD risk according to Kevin's early forecast (as does the Yankees @ Nationals). If that game in Atlanta were to be washed out, it would leave the Boston Red Sox (5.06) as the only team with an implied run line above four runs.