Brett Anderson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Any effectiveness from Brett Anderson stems from the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) in a great park. This is a terrible spot for him though. In fact, it’s a major surprise to see the Yankees trailing five teams tonight at 5.87 implied runs. It’s certainly a park downgrade for Anderson, who has just a 12 K% with a 5.27 SIERA, 5.56 DRA, and .348 xwOBA with 40.6% of his contact above 95 mph. Over the last calendar year, RHBs own a .334 wOBA, but an xwOBA quite a bit higher (.362) with a dip in ground ball rate (49.2%). The Yankees are loaded with right-handed power, especially with Luke Voit (165 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) returning tonight. Heck, the Yankees have even turned DJ LeMahieu (185 wRC+, .290 ISO) into a power hitter. Along with Aaron Judge (197 wRC+, .344 ISO) catching fire (271 wRC+, 70.6 Hard% last seven days), this is a lineup that should be very problematic for Anderson in this spot. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Giovanny Urshela all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against lefties over the last 12 months as well.

Brett Anderson has thrown at least seven shutout innings in three of his last four starts. Of course, he's struck out a total of 10 in those starts and he's facing the Astros (124 wRC+ and 19.6 K% vs LHP) with a 13.1 K% and 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but he's in the most negative run environment on the board with a ground ball rate up to 55.7% now and has a bit of a reverse split (RHBs .310 wOBA). Players who want to pay up for pitching and have some room left over for bats may need to consider him in their secondary DraftKings spot for $5.7K. Players will also probably want to hedge on that a bit against a Houston lineup finally at full strength with a 4.64 implied run line tonight. While each of the bit four at the top of the lineup are above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year, Alex Bregman (162 wRC+, .256 ISO) has become the standout and the only one above a .200 ISO over that span. A bit down further in the sixth spot, small sample superstar Tyler White has destroyed LHP as well (194 wRC+, .341 ISO).

The Rangers have one of the highest run lines on the board (5.34) in the top run environment against a struggling pitcher. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Brett Anderson in limited work since last season. Joey Gallo is not in this lineup, but Shin-Soo Choo (105 wRC+, .084 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Rougned Odor (65 wRC+, .146 ISO) lead off this lineup. No other batter among the first eight is below a 120 wRC+ or .194 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. The thing to note here though, is that the A's have been one of the top bullpens in the game over the last month (3.35 FIP and 17 K-BB%) and Anderson hasn't gone very deep into starts. This in itself is probably not enough of a reason to limit exposure to Texas bats in a great park.

With Max Scherzer down (PPD), only Michael Fulmer and Jacob deGrom have averaged more than six innings per start last two calendar years on tonight's slate. This season alone gets Mike Clevinger, Charlie Morton and Jakob Junis above that mark as well, but fear not bullpen attackers. The major league worst Kansas City bullpen (4.89 FIP, 6.8 K%) is likely to get in some work with a fly ball and home run prone pitcher facing the Yankees tonight. Dan Straily, Carson Fulmer, Ross Stripling, Matt Moore, Brett Anderson, Drew Pomeranz and Alex Cobb have all averaged fewer than five innings per start this season. The Boston pen is not one to be trifled with (17.7 K-BB%, 3.45 FIP). The Marlins (4.28 FIP), White Sox (4.14 FIP), Rangers (3.99 FIP, 11.8 K-BB%), A's (4.49 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%) and surprisingly, Dodgers (4.41 FIP) are all among the weaker pens in the league by FIP withe Orioles more mediocre (3.88 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%).

Brett Anderson had a 47.4 GB% and 13.8 SwStr% in his first start back for Oakland. His 93 mph and 43.8% sliders were both higher than his standard fare, so perhaps it was adrenaline or matchup related, but it's an aspect to watch tonight. Over his career, he's been about 20 points better against RHBs by wOBA, keeping them on the ground 54% of the time. This is predominantly how the Astros are likely to line up. George Springer (168 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP last calendar years), Jose Altuve (149 wRC+, .156 ISO), Carlos Correa (214 wRC+, .258 ISO) and Alex Bregman (145 wRC+, .228 ISO) are always strong options against southpaws. While Altuve has a 53 point xwOBA drop from his .403 actual wOBA over this time span against lefties, which may explain a wRC+ nearly above his ISO, he may be able to make up for that on the base paths tonight. There may be a few west coast stolen base opportunities here, which premium subscribers can find via the new Stolen Base Threat Ratings page. This lineup is not yet confirmed and the Astros have just a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this season, but quite a bit of potential in lineup full of dangerous right-handed bats.

The Seattle Mariners have a 4.55 implied run line that's fairly close to the top of the board tonight. They are facing one of the few pitchers on this board who doesn't miss a lot of bats, though he does generate plenty of ground balls when he's on. Brett Anderson has amazingly struck out 25 of the 78 batters he's faced at AAA this season with just two walks and no home runs, but has a career 17.4 K% and hasn't even been that high at the major league level since he last pitched for the A's in 2013. Siding with an offense you at least expect to make contact makes perfect sense and although the Seattle lineup is not yet confirmed, it's contents can be speculated on with some confidence. Anderson actually has a reverse platoon split both last season (LHBs .461 wOBA, .439 xwOBA) and for his career (LHBs .336 wOBA), though he has the same K-BB% and generates more weak ground balls against lefties (66.2 GB%, 0.9 Hard-Soft% for his career). Looking at Seattle bats who have been strong against southpaws since last season leads us to all right-handed bats in Nelson Cruz (132 wRC+, .212 ISO), Mitch Haniger (117 wRC+, .227 ISO), Mike Zunino (123 wRC+, .278 ISO) and then Jean Segura (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) as a potential stolen base threat. Kyle Seager (101 wRC+, 176 ISO) has been the only competent left-handed bat against same handed pitching projected for tonight's lineup.

Wednesday night's board is loaded with upside. There are 16 pitchers and here are the ones below a 10 SwStr%: Aaron Nola (9.1%) and Dallas Keuchel (8.1%). Both of those pitchers have a sub-.300 xwOBA. Neither Wade Miley or Brett Anderson have thrown a pitch in the majors this season or we'd expect them to be on this list as well, but there are very few unusable arms on this slate and potentially even fewer pitchers who players will want to attack. Six pitchers on tonight's slate exceed a 28 K%, a club of which Stephen Strasburg (26.9 K%) is not a member of, but he, along with Jacob deGrom (31 K%) are the highest priced pitchers on the board and will probably get the most attention, but there's also James Paxton (31.2 K%) and Luis Severino (29.2 K%) near the top of the board with Hyun-Jin Ryu (31.2 K%), Andrew Heaney (34.4 K%) and Sean Newcomb (28.1 K%) following. Heaney, Newcomb and Ryu are all facing offenses who have a strikeout rate between 25 to 26% against left-handed pitchers (which all three are) this year. Then there's Jose Urena (10.2 SwStr%, 18.4 K%), who costs just $4.1K on DraftKings and is facing a Phillies offense with a 26.6 K% vs RHP this year. While top of the board pitchers are fine tonight, there's an argument to be made for paying down for pitching tonight.

The Houston Astros have the highest implied run (6.2) line on the slate tonight at Coors...wait, no, they're just facing James Shields, who has allowed 26 HRs in 19 starts this year. In fact, he's only started two games this year in which he hasn't allowed a HR. While batters from either side have hit the ball hard on about one-third of contact with a ground ball rate below 40%, LHBs have a .394 wOBA with 17 HRs against him compared to .315 to RHBs with nine HRs. This might give players like Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP), who has three career HRs in 22 PAs against Shields, and Marwin Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) some extra appeal from the left side of the plate, but the power from the right side is certainly in play as well. Five more teams are projected between 4.9 and 5.55 runs by Vegas, which is a bit light on an 11 game slate and could bunch hitter ownership tonight, but there are enough pitchers that players should clearly want to attack on this slate, including Ricky Nolasco, who is tied for the third most HRs allowed in the majors (34). He has an 89.8 mph aEV this year, while no other pitcher on the board even reaches 89 mph. He also has the displeasure of facing the Indians, albeit in a favorable park at home. The Indians have six projected starters with an ISO above .225 against RHP this year. Without Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor (both .228), that improves to four batters (Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce and Lonnie Chisenhall) with a .250 or better ISO vs RHP. Brett Anderson is another optimal target. Without ground balls, he loses all effectiveness and his rate has been below 48% in five of his last six starts, which stretches back to early in the season before his standard DL stint. RHBs have a 37.9 GB% and 47.8 Hard% against him over this span (.420 wOBA, 4 HRs). While the Royals are not a proficient offense against LHP (86 wRC+), they do have a few bats who can do damage in Whit Merrifield (125 wRC+, .234 ISO vs LHP), Lorenz Cain (102 wRC+, .212 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (90 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Melky Cabrera (103 wRC+, .191 ISO).

While it's difficult to find strong daily fantasy pitching on tonight's slate, there are a few strong contact managers taking the mound tonight. Unfortunately, those two things don't always correlate. With Jose Urena's scratch, Jose Berrios now has the lowest average exit velocity on the slate (85.3 mph). No other pitcher is even below 86 mph. Andrew Cashner (3.4%) and Berrios (4.6%) are the only pitchers allowing barrels on fewer than five percent of batted balls. Brad Peacock (27.9%) and Berrios (28.7%) are the only two below 30% 95+ mph EV. Take this to mean that Jose Berrios has been the best contact manager on the slate, but also be cautious of attacking Andrew Cashner (86.4 mph aEV, 31.5%). This is not to say that he's completely earned an ERA (3.19) more than two runs below his SIERA (5.39), but players who have foolishly spent all season leading all out assaults on him have likely lost a lot of money. The Mariners do have a 5.19 implied run line in one of the more positive run environments in the league though. Calculated exposure to Seattle bats may still be warranted though, considering their potency against RHP this year. Nelson Cruz (143 wRC+, .266 ISO), Robinson Cano (139 wRC+, .217 ISO) have both been effective and have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week. Mitch Haniger (130 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Mike Zunino (114 wRC+, .241 ISO) both add a wRC+ at or above 280 with a 45% hard hit rate over the last seven days. On the other end of the spectrum, Ricky Nolasco has a board high 89.8 mph aEV with a 9.3% Barrels/BBE (third) and 40.6% 95+ mph EV (second). He's allowed 34 HRs, second most in the majors, 22 of them to RHBs, who have a .393 wOBA and 40.3 Hard% against him this year. Brett Anderson has the highest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity (46%) with the second highest aEV (88.9 mph) on the board.