Brian Anderson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Marlins lineup is hardly ever a place to find bats, but on a slate tonight with many viable high priced-arms, they have some decent low-priced options that make sense. The Marlins will get a matchup tonight with Steven Brault, who has had a rough year with a 5.05 ERA, 5.63 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with just a 5.4% K-BB, 44% hard contact and an 8.8% SwStr. Brault also has a .362 xwOBA allowed and an 89.8 MPH aEV. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been atrocious over the last 30 days with a 6.27 ERA and 5.21 xFIP with a 2.04 HR/9, further enhancing the matchup for Miami bats. Garrett Cooper (.427 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jorge Alfaro (.425), Starlin Castro (.354), Brian Anderson (.336) have all hit lefties well this year and are in the Miami lineup tonight. Austin Dean (.268) hasn’t had as much success on the year but will leadoff for the Marlins at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Harold Ramirez is another option, batting 5th at $3.8k with a 106 wRC+ on the year. Garrett Cooper has been the Marlins’ hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Miguel Rojas at a .398 mark. With the exception of Cooper, all Marlins bats are $4k or less on Draftkings. They currently have a 4.37 implied line vs. Brault and the Pirates.

While Yu Darvish didn’t walk a batter in his last start, his velocity remains down and he did allow two HRs on a day when the wind was blowing in strongly at Wrigley. He gets a park upgrade in a tremendous matchup in Miami tonight, but it’s actually one of the Marlins’ bats that appears an interesting value play in this game. In a small sample, RHBs have been tougher on Darvish than LHBs over the last calendar year (.386 wOBA) and this is supported by his Statcast numbers (.385 xwOBA). Right in the middle of the Miami lineup sits Brian Anderson (113 wRC+ vs RHP last calendar year), who’s off to a hot start (205 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% last seven days). The best part? Anderson costs just $2.9K on either site. If Darvish reverts and starts walking batters again, Anderson could see some RBI opportunities and if he’s on base himself, it’s not out of the question that he can steal you a base in this matchup either. It may not be the top play on the board, but it Brian Anderson may be one of the best values at his current price.

Gray should be a very popular play on today’s slate, and rightfully so. Gray faces a Marlins lineup in Miami that will have just 3 lefties in the order. Gray had pretty drastic splits in 2018 (.282 xwOBA vs. RHB, .332 vs. LHB) and shouldn’t have a problem mowing down this weak Marlins lineup. Miami has just two batters who had an xwOBA vs. RHP above .315 last year (Neil Walker, Brian Anderson). Although they will run out a slightly different lineup this afternoon, the 2018 Marlins K% vs. RHP was worse than average at 23%. Owners of Gray will hope they get the 2018 1st half version (11.33 K/9, 3.05 FIP) as opposed to the 2nd half (7.15 K/9, 5.49 FIP). The Marlins have just a 3.21 implied total against Gray and the Rox this afternoon.

Without even considering anything else, Sean Newcomb may be one of tonight's top value only by considering cost (< $8K), venue (Miami) and opponent (Marlins 81 wRC+, 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP). One thing to realize is that the Marlins don't strike out a ton (21.3% vs LHP), while Newcomb has just a league average strikeout rate as well (21.7%). He's also allowed 12 runs over 9.1 innings to the Rockies and Brewers (both in Atlanta) over his last two starts, but he does top the board with an 86.8 mph aEV and the only pitcher allowing fewer Barrels/BBE than his 4.2% has started just two games. Contact management in a great park is likely where his value comes from tonight if he maintains the expected league average strikeout rate. There's a little more risk in that, but RHBs have just a .299 wOBA against him this season and the Marlins attack him with six of those, just two above average against southpaws over the last calendar year: Starlin Castro (126 wRC+, .142 ISO) and Brian Anderson (108 wRC+, .142 ISO).

The Miami bats have been priced up for Coors. They're facing one of the more interesting pitchers on the board tonight in Jon Gray, who may appear in a lot of lineups due to his high upside, low cost and the quality of opposition. A 4.42 implied run line is one of the lowest you'll see at Coors, but it's still top half of the board and Gray has allowed at least four runs in five of seven starts at home. Even those favoring him may want to hedge in a lineup or two with at least some exposure to Derek Dietrich (120 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and/or Justin Bour (144 wRC+, .254 ISO). J.T. Realmuto (130 wRC+, .216 ISO) is the only other batter in the lineup above a .140 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year, though Brian Anderson does have a 117 wRC+ and .342 xwOBA against same-handed pitching over that span.