Brian Goodwin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Jose Berrios is one of the most erratic pitchers in the league. You never know where he’s going to throw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts or something less than a quality start when he goes out there. Coming off a nine strikeout performance against the Indians, Jose Berrios faced 26 White Sox last time out and didn’t strike out a single one. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 12 of 16 starts, but beyond that, you can never tell what the performance will be. The sum is a 3.52 ERA that’s mostly in line with, but at least slightly lower than all of his estimators. One thing we can single out now is his problem with LHBs, who have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against him since last season. While the White Sox have an implied run line of just four, they may have some of the top values on the board, which is important because pitching is expensive tonight. We can’t fully buy into Gavin Sheet’s performance against RHP yet (266 wRC+, .500 ISO) with just 21 PAs, but that might be enough in this spot for a guy projected to bat in the middle of the lineup for less than $3K. Brian Goodwin (139 wRC+. 262 ISO vs RHP since 2020) has a larger sample size and is projected to bat cleanup and is within $300 of $3K on either site. Should Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .172 ISO) find himself moving up in the order, he costs just $2.5K or less. Despite their low implied run line, we might be able to expect something more from LH White Sox bats tonight, which could also help provide a patch towards Jacob deGrom in your daily fantasy lineups.

Bailey Ober has struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.5%) through six starts (24.2 IP), but with just an 8.0 SwStr%. In fact, he’s been above 9% in just one start and has nearly as many home runs (four) and walks (four) allowed as strikeouts (five) over his last two starts. He’s carried excellent control with him from the minors (5.7 BB%), but that won’t be enough if the strikeout rate drops much below average and just 26.8% of his contact remains on the ground. In fact, batters from either side of the plate have blasted Ober for an ISO above .220 and LHBs currently have a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him with just 14.3% of their contact on the ground. That makes virtually any LHB in the Chicago lineup playable tonight, especially with Gavin Sheets (262 wRC+ vs RHP in just 19 PAs) still costing less than $3K on either site. Brian Goodwin (139 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2020) may be another value play here at just $3.1K on DraftKings. Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Yoan Moncada (139 wRC+, .264 ISO), expected to return tonight, are your top LH bats here. Incidentally, Ober has legitimately stifled RHBs (.250 wOBA, .254 xwOBA). The White Sox are one of eight offenses currently implied for at least five runs by oddsmakers tonight.

It’s curious that Brian Goodwin had taken so long to find major league work this season because he’s been quite a quality bat against RHP since last year (135 wRC+, .257 ISO) and has a 148 wRC+ over the last month in total. Casey Mize’s velocity, ground ball rate (50%) and strikeout rate (19.8%) have all been dropping. He’s at 88 innings and hasn’t thrown more than 110 since being drafted. Estimators range from a 4.25 xFIP to a 5.05 xERA, all well above his 3.46 ERA (82.6 LOB%). In addition, he has a pretty massive split with Statcast pushing his .369 wOBA against LHBs since last season up to a .404 xwOBA. The White Sox don’t have a lot of quality LHBs, but Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .215 ISO) is another one and Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) is cheap, though neither may equal the value on of Goodwin, who costs $3.3K or less on either site and may be one of the top DraftKings values on the board, should he find himself in the two spot again tonight.

In 11 career games as a starting pitcher, Josh Smith has a 6.70 ERA with a 5.83 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB and 1.82 (!) WHIP. He’s also allowed a .377 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV in those starts. With the exception of Mike Trout, the Angels have a nice selection of bats that have upside and are affordable. Mike Trout (.473 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shohei Ohtani (.378), Kole Calhoun (.333), David Fletcher (.323), Brian Goodwin (.322), Justin Upton (.314), Kevan Smith (.302) and Albert Pujols (.299) are all in play tonight. Brian Goodwin (.410) has been the Angels’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks, followed by Trout with a .399 mark. Fletcher (projected to leadoff) and Upton (projected to bat 4th) are both available for just $3.7k on Draftkings tonight. Calhoun ($4.4k), Pujols ($4k) and Kevan Smith ($2.9k) also look like nice values on DK. Ohtani ($4.9k) and Trout ($5.5k) are by far the two most expensive bats here but could be well worth it as both have continued to mash RHP this year. All Angels’ bats project for decently low ownership tonight, making them an intriguing GPP stack.

Tanner Anderson has started three games for the A’s with a 19.1 K% and 7.7 SwStr%, 91 Z-Contact% and 48.8 Z-O-Swing%. All of those numbers are much worse than average. He does have a 59.1 GB% with an 86.1 mph aEV, but somehow 12.8% of his contact has still been labelled as a Barrel and 20% of his fly balls have left the yard. These are still small sample size things, but aside from the ground ball rate, none of it’s really very encouraging, while his 4.3 K-BB% in 54.2 AAA innings doesn’t help matters either. The Angels have a 113 wRC+, 17.4 K% and 22.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year. This is the offense to target outside Coors tonight. At 5.32 implied runs, they’re the only offense outside Coors even above 4.5 implied runs tonight. Anderson has been hammered by LHBs for a .398 wOBA (.418 xwOBA) in his three starts with a 48.8 Hard%. Tommy La Stella (132 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (155 wRC+, .303 ISO), Cole Kalhoun (116 wRC+, .255 ISO), Brian Goodwin (115 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Justin Bour (92 wRC+, .217 ISO) are Dodger alternatives tonight if in tonight’s lineup.

With Ohtani back in the lineup, Tommy La Stella raking and Mike Trout being Mike Trout, the Angels suddenly have a dangerous lineup and have a 5.42 implied total vs. Junis and the Royals tonight. Junis is enduring a rough year which has seen him post a 5.77 ERA / 4.64 xFIP / 4.72 SIERA with a 40.6% hard contact rate. Junis also has a .358 xwOBA allowed, a 89.5 aEV and a 9.7% barrel rate. Since 2018, Junis has been platoon neutral (.338 xwOBA vs. LHB, .335 xwOBA vs. RHB) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. Mike Trout (.452 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Shohei Ohtani (.434), Tommy La Stella (.348), Kole Calhoun (.338), Brian Goodwin (.323) and Andrelton Simmons (.316) are all in play tonight. Tommy La Stella has been the Angels’ hottest hitter with a .469 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Mike Trout (.411) and Shohei Ohtani (.394).

Dan Straily has exceed two trips though the lineup (18 batters) just twice this year, so the Angels should be seeing at least half a game’s worth of the Baltimore bullpen with a 4.63 xFIP this year and a .322 wOBA with a .157 ISO allowed to RHBs according to PlateIQ’s new Bullpen tool. Straily, with just a 9.8 K%, .412 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV, should have problem of his own before then against a team that rarely strikes out. How bad is it expected to be? You’d think this game was being played at Coors with the wind blowing out. The Angels sit at a ridiculous 6.26 implied runs early on today. People will and should find creative ways to fit Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their cash game lineups tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 40% and ground ball rate below 35% against Straily over the last 12 months. The big park in Miami helped hide some of those flaws, but Camden is not nearly as forgiving. Shohei Ohtani (171 wRC+, .333 ISO), Tommy La Stella (119 wRC+, .185 ISO), Kole Calhoun (109 wRC+, .256 ISO), and Brian Goodwin (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) are all LHBs of interest in the projected lineup. Even Albert Pujols (82 wRC+, .135 ISO) might be playable here if in the top half of the lineup.

Danny Duffy is making his debut tonight vs. the Angels after missing the start of 2019 with a shoulder injury. Duffy appeared in 155 innings in 2018, giving up a 4.88 ERA / 4.92 xFIP / 4.75 SIERA. Duffy was bad vs. RHP in 2018 with a .344 wOBA allowed, but much better vs. LHB with a .284 wOBA allowed. Fortunately, the Angels project to use 7 RHB vs. Duffy tonight, who is not likely to have his best stuff tonight as he shakes off the rust. Mike Trout (.412 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Kevan Smith (.400), Brian Goodwin (.343, just 44 PA), Kole Calhoun (.343), Albert Pujols (.321) and Andrelton Simmons (.315) project to be in the Angels’ lineup and are all in play. With the exception of Mike Trout, all the aforementioned players are available for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. Kevan Smith is an intriguing play at just $3.4k given his success vs. LHP, he also owns a .435 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Angels have a 4.64 implied total vs. Duffy and the Royals tonight.