Brian Harman Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Harman was close to making more core plays last week, but it felt like a let-down spot. He was priced up and expected to be popular. I generally try to avoid that combination, but I suppose I'm making an exception for Redman. Harman missed the cut on the number last week, which is easy to overlook. He's ninth in my stat model and my 15th ranked golfer in the field. To put that into perspective, he's the 23rd most expensive golfer on DraftKings and the 21st most expensive golfer on FanDuel. He is ranked above the field average in every key statistic that I'm looking for this week and while he missed the cut here last year (on the number), it doesn't hurt that he's seen the course.

Harman has done a complete 180 when it comes to his game. For the longest time, he relied heavily on strokes gained around the green and strokes gained putting. For those reasons, he never seemed to pop in my PGA model. Over the last year of play, he’s become an excellent ball striker. He’s still competent on and around the greens, but has improved greatly off the tee and with his irons. He clearly likes this course (five straight top 31 finishes) and has apparently been grinding hard trying to learn the secrets to these greens.

I am always tinkering with the weights in my PGA model, but as of Monday afternoon, Harman is the fifth highest rated golfer for this event. I wanted to start with my rating because he's the 17th most expensive golfer on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Right away, that screams value when it comes to DFS. As noted last week, Harman has been a consistent part of my core plays over the last six months. After years of avoiding him due to terrible ball striking, he's really turned that part of his game around. In fact, he's ranked 20th in this field off the tee and 27th in approach. When you combine that with an ability to make birdies and limit bogeys, he's going to appear on a lot of leaderboards. His T32 finish at the Sony Open wasn't anything special, but he did gain three strokes ball striking. He has an elite short game, we just haven't seen it show up consistently. I expect him to keep it rolling this week, as he has three top 20 finishes (including a T3 in 2016) at this event over the last four years.

It's so strange... for years and years, Harman would rate out as one of the worst point-per-dollar plays in my PGA model. All of a sudden, he seems to pop every single week. I've made some adjustments to the model over the years, but the biggest difference for Harman has been his recent form and his improved ball striking. After being one of the worst off the tee and on approach, he's in the top 20 in this field in both categories. He rates out as the second best fit for the hole yardages, which takes into account Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 scoring on the yardages of the holes that the golfers will play at each course. He's also ranked inside the top 20 in birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance, and strokes gained putting. He doesn't have a weakness in his game right now and he has great course history to boot. Granted, he missed the cut here last year, but his form was a completely different story. Prior to the missed cut, he had four straight top 20 finishes here including a T4 in 2018. He offers a high ceiling with a high chance of making the cut. And again, I can eat the chalk here because I am taking a lower owned stud in Patrick Reed.

Harman made the cut last week, but he was one of the bigger disappointments. For the second time in the swing season I’ve targeted him on courses that he didn’t have any great finishes at in the past and for the second time, I wasn’t impressed with the results. The ball striking numbers have been better over the last six months, but he might be a golfer that we should only target on courses that he likes. This should certainly fit the mold, as he’s made five of seven cuts here with two top 10 finishes. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s good with his irons, and he’s ranked first in the field in bogey avoidance.

Last and hopefully not least is Mr. Harman, who was just priced above $9,000 on DraftKings ($10,000 on FanDuel) a few weeks ago. This is arguably just as weak of a field and an even better course fit. He's now $7,700 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel. I'll gladly buy low on Harman, even at elevated ownership. The times when I like to fade the chalk is when a volatile (usually cheap) golfer becomes popular. Much like Harris English, Harman has really found his ball striking of late. He missed the cut at the Houston Open, but gained at least five strokes tee to green in three of his previous five events. He doesn't have any amazing finishes, but the course should set up well for what he does best.

One of the biggest debates in PGA DFS is whether recent form or course history is more important. That will be put to the test this week at the Houston Open, especially at the top of the field. Henrik Stenson and Russell Henley have amazing track records at this event and should garner a lot of ownership. While I plan to have exposure to both in my MME build, Harman is my preferred spend in my main lineup. He doesn’t have elite course history, but is playing some amazing golf right now. In his last five events, he has posted four top 20 finishes, including two top sixes. He used to be a golfer that we could only target on shorter tracks where putting was important, but that’s no longer the case. He has been terrific tee to green, gaining over five strokes on the field in six of his last 10 events. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game right now and I never thought I would say this, but he actually ranks first in this field in the key statistics that I have identified for this event. I like his chances to win this week and his ownership should be reasonable given how well Stenson and Henley have played here over the years.

Harman is my second favorite point-per-dollar play of the week, trailing only the golfer listed below him in this article. For the longest time, Harman was a golfer that was bad off the tee and bad with his irons. He would make up for it with an elite short game. I’m not sure what happened along the way, but it’s basically flipped over the last six months. He’s been very good tee to green (gained at least five strokes on the field in seven of his last 10 events), but hasn’t had much success with the putter. If he can continue this new found ball striking and have a good week with the putter (which we know he’s capable of), he could not only contend, but win here in the next few weeks. He has three top 15 finishes in his last four events on tour and he posted a T15 in his last appearance at this event (2016). He’s too cheap across the industry, both in terms of his price in DFS and in terms of his betting odds.