Brian Johnson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Over the last calendar year, which encompasses a bit under 50 innings, RHBs have absolutely torched Brian Johnson to the tune of a .452 wOBA (.403 xwOBA) with a 43.8 Hard%. As one might imagine, Fenway is a difficult park for a marginal left-handed arm to pitch in. Perhaps that’s why Johnson has only faced 31 batters at home this year and the Red Sox have limited him to no more than 19 batters in any of his five starts. Two trips through the order should be enough for this Philadelphia lineup to do some damage with Rhys Hoskins (121 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.T. Realmuto (118 wRC+, .250 ISO) projected at the top, perhaps followed by Jean Segura (133 wRC+, .258 ISO). Only Realmuto is above $4.3K on DraftKings, giving the right-handed Phillies plenty of value in this spot. Even if they only get two shots at Johnson, both Hoskins and Realmuto hit RHP well too. Currently, the Phillies are the lowest of 10 teams above five implied runs tonight (5.41).

Brian Johnson has not exceeded 19 batters in any of his outings this year, including three starts, so he’s only likely to go through the lineup twice, but that may be enough for the Angels to cause significant damage. For his career, almost 500 batted balls recorded by Statcast, opponents have barreled 8.8% of contact. To exacerbate this issue, the Angels have just a 17.9 K% vs LHP this year and Fenway is a highly positive run environment. It gets even worse for Johnson. RHBs own a .417 wOBA (.392 xwOBA) against him over the last calendar year. The outlook for Mike Trout (151 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is tremendous tonight, but Albert Pujols (112 wRC+, .230 ISO) has been no slouch with the platoon advantage either and costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. For those looking to punt the catcher position, it’s not a large sample, but Kevan Smith (177 wRC+, .191 ISO, .419 xwOBA) costs just $3.3K on DraftKings and $1K less on FanDuel for an offense implied for 5.32 runs.

Conditions may not be as favorable as they normally are tonight, but chances are Fenway is still a positive run environment tonight and the Yankees are visiting, needing to win to host the wild card game, with a 4.77 implied run line (fifth best on the board) against a pitcher (Brian Johnson) who has allowed RHBs a .348 wOBA this season with a struggling bullpen behind him. Eight Yankees will come to the plate from that side. All eight have at least a 118 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs LHP this year. Giancarlo Stanton (179 wRC+, .340 ISO) and Luke Voit (179 wRC+, .348 ISO) have been out of this world against southpaws this year with Aaron Judge's own great numbers (157 wRC+, .262 ISO) paling in comparison.

Great park, marginal LHP (RHBs ..327 wOBA, .348 xwOBA this season). This is your daily reminder to use Francisco Lindor (171 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .280 ISO) in your daily fantasy lineups. The Indians have an implied run line of just 4.56 at Fenway, but it's still fifth best on the board. More affordable exposure to this lineup can be found with Yandy Diaz (139 wRC+, .104 iSO), Brandon Guyer (127 wRC+, .194 ISO) and Yan Gomes (140 wRC+, .252 ISO).

The Angels will attack lefty Brian Johnson with nine right-handed bats at Fenway tonight. In 63 major league innings since last season RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA slightly above .350 against him with a 37.9 GB%. While the key guys are Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), who has been struggling with a finger injury over the last week (55 wRC+, 20 Hard%), and Justin Upton (175 wRC+, .352 ISO), it's difficult to say there are many poor choices in this lineup through the first five or six spots with some lower priced guys potentially off-setting some difficulties with fitting more expensive bats in your lineup tonight.

We're seeing the back end of rotations on Monday night, where Charlie Morton can be considered the only established high strikeout pitcher. DraftKings pricing is particularly tough, where Morton (26.4 K%), along with Mike Clevinger (27.3 K%) and Tanner Roark (21.4 K%) each cost $9.9K or more. While Hyun-Jin Ryu and Taijuan Walker also boast a 21.4 K% from last season, the former rarely goes much more than five innings and the latter has a difficult matchup with the Dodgers, even if we're still counting on the humidor to under-value pitchers at this point in the season. Morton pitches in the most negative run environment in baseball the last few years and faces a predominantly right-handed Baltimore lineup. However, he had a reverse split last season, striking out more LHBs (32.8%), while generating more ground balls (56.1 GB%, 0.4 Hard-Soft%) against RHBs. That may bring down his upside somewhat, but he still struck out righties at a league average pace last year (20.9%). Clevinger struggles with his walk rate (12.5%), does carry the top strikeout rate on the board and walked just four batters this spring. He completed six innings in nine of his last 13 starts last season. Tanner Roark's value lies in the fact that he is probably the pitcher most likely to finish six innings tonight. He's the only pitcher on the board to average at least six innings per start over the last two calendar years. Lower priced potential pitchers of interest may include Bryan Mitchell, who had higher strikeout rates in the minors than he's had in the majors so far and faces a perennially awful road offense in the Rockies in San Diego tonight, Brian Johnson, who's similarly struggles to miss bats in the majors, but travels to Miami and struck out 13 in 15.2 spring innings, and Andrew Triggs, who has exhibited a double digit SwStr% and 50+ GB% in each of his two seasons before 2017 ended early due to injury. He's in a strong spot at home against a Texas offense that was exposed )82 wRC+, 26.1 K%) outside a very hitter friendly home park last season.