Bronson Arroyo Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Bronson Arroyo has been prone to blowups in his comeback season and his last start was no different, allowing a whopping nine earned runs to the San Diego Padres in just 4.2 innings pitched. This afternoon he'll face off with a powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that has been known to hammer to right-handed pitching from time to time. Arroyo is currently allowing a 19.1% HR/FB rate, which for all you math wizards, means that approximately one out of every five fly balls have been leaving the yard, and he surrenders a ton of fly balls, at a 48.5% rate. Arroyo has allowed 22 home runs in just 13 starts which seems pretty in line with his current skills given all the fly balls and a 33.7% hard hit rate. His inability to induce swings and misses (13.7% K%) puts essentially every Dodgers hitter with any semblance of power in play Sunday and a stack in tournaments certainly remains high on the list in terms of viability. However, the top targets in the Los Angeles lineup are conveniently slotted 1-5 in the batting order and are Cody Bellinger (141 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .357 ISO vs RHP), Yasiel Puig (122 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .250 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (.202 ISO vs RHP), Corey Seager (133 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .176 ISO vs RHP), and even Justin Turner (164 wRC+, .418 wOBA vs RHP) despite his power his power struggles to this point in the season.

Bronson Arroyo is the predominant fly ball pitcher on today's slate (30.7 GB%) and Petco will be a real challenge to his 20 HRs allowed and at least one in all but one start. His 7.9% Barrels/PA is highest on the board, but could this be his second outing without allowing a HR? The Padres have an 81 wRC+ at home and 82 wRC+ vs RHP, though average HR rates. However, against fly ball pitchers, they have the second lowest sOPS+ (78) in baseball. Jerad Eickhoff is a fly ball pitcher as well (39.2 GB%) and Boston has the highest run line on the board, but have hit the second fewest HRs against fly ball pitchers (19 with a 102 sOPS+), while Eickhoff has allowed a modest eight HRs (10.0 HR/FB) this year. Yu Darvish (38.1 GB%) is the third pitcher on the slate with a GB rate below 40% both this season and over the last two calendar years. He's looked better in recent starts (17 Ks last two), but the Astros have the fourth best sOPS+ (113) with the second most HRs (49) along with being beastly at home (16.0 HR/FB) and vs RHP (122 wRC+) this year.

The Cardinals are one of six offenses with an implied run line of 4.9 or more tonight, while the Reds are in the middle of the pack with 4.5 implied runs tonight against Lance Lynn, but this matchup may deserve a closer look. Bronson Arroyo has already allowed 19 HRs, but the Cardinals have been shut down by two below average extreme fly ball pitchers each of the last two nights in Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see whether the public sides with them again or fears getting burned again. Whatever ownership trends suggest later, it might be wise to do the opposite. The absence of Dexter Fowler may dampen the overall outlook slightly and Matt Carpenter may not be someone players can entirely fade tonight at a very reasonable cost (51% fly ball rate and .203 ISO vs RHP this year), but he has a -46 wRC+ and 29.4 Hard% over the last week. On the other side, Lance Lynn has a 4.23 SIERA well above his 2.97 ERA due to a .204 BABIP and 83.3 LOB%. He's always struggled both on the road (11.4 HR/FB career almost exaclty doubles his home rate) and against LHBs (.343 wOBA career). He absolutely can not be expected to contain Scooter Gennett, who hit four HRs last night, but Scott Schebler (108 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since last season) returns to the lineup also tonight. Maybe Joey Votto (162 wRC+, 250 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the First Baseman players should want in this matchup tonight and Cincinnati LHBs might be the more interesting stack.

There are four fly ball pitchers (GB rate below 40% over the both last two calendar years and this year) facing a bottom eight offense via sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this season. While San Francisco is not a surprise (78 sOPS+ = 28th), they do get a significant park upgrade facing Jared Eickhoff (6.5 SwStr% in May) in Philadelphia. Jake Odorizzi has an ERA more than a run below his estimators due to a .223 BABIP and 86.6 LOB%, but may get a small bump in Seattle with the Mariners 94 sOPS+ (23rd) against fly ball pitchers. Odorizzi is striking out batters at a league average rate this year. The other two may be more interesting because they are both pitchers that players will likely be targeting tonight. Atlanta has just an 81 sOPS+ against RHP, but that's not a surprise and Bronson Arroyo's HR tendencies are still much too strong to ignore. The last one is Detroit. With such a strong tendency to elevate low pitches (league high 123 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers), they actually struggle when met with a pitcher who generates fly balls on his own, running just a 92 sOPS+ (25th) with a .409 SLG. Nick Castellanos (32 sOPS+) is the biggest offender. Most other active Detroit batters tonight are closer to average. In fact, J.D. Martinez (125 sOPS+) and Miguel Cabrera (130 sOPS+) have both done well against fly ball pitchers, so don't let this team-wide stat dissuade confidence in them. Unfortunately, the one bat who has excelled against fly ball pitchers (Alex Avila 203 sOPS+) is on the bench tonight against a LHP, but John Hicks (182 sOPS+ with two HRs in 21 PAs) has had some small sample success and may be an interesting, very low cost Catcher.

Three offenses are projected for five runs or more tonight without a game at Coors with one of them being the team Bronson Arroyo pitches for, but not the one the pitcher who has allowed 18 HRs is pitching against. That's because Arroyo is facing the Braves without Freddie Freeman. It still says quite a bit that Atlanta has an implied run line of 4.85 runs, fourth on the slate. Due to a park that favors power hitting, ideally, you're looking for bats with some power as Arroyo shows few biases how he allows his HRs (10 to LHBs, 8 to RHBs). Matt Kemp has a 113 wRC+ and .222 ISO vs RHP since last season, Matt Adams a 107 wRC+ and .215 ISO and is very affordable on either site. The other place to look might be Tyler Flowers (129 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP since last season). He doesn't have a lot of power, but it's enough for a low priced catcher in this spot against a bomb dispenser like Arroyo. No other Brave has an ISO above .140 against RHP since last season.

Five batters have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Two (Hunter Pence & Brandon Belt vs Bronson Arroyo) deal with such outdated information that Statcast has not recorded a single BBE for any of these matchups. Arroyo missed the previous two seasons, but don't worry, he's still giving up bombs (seven this year). A power suppressing park in San Francisco is the biggest concern, but no major league park can hold Arroyo when he's on. Pence does only have five extra-base hits in 45 PAs against Arroyo and has just a .119 ISO vs RHP since last year to go along with his -4 wRC+ overall over the last week. George Springer (96.9 mph aEV on five BBEs) and Carlos Correa (101.6 mph aEV on seven BBEs) have both manhandled Michael Pineda in the past, but the talented right-hander is finally putting it all together with a 3.12 to go along with his 27.5 K-BB% this year. Nolan Arenado has also homered twice against a pitcher who has missed each of the last two seasons, but both of those against Hyun-Jin Ryu came in a single game in LA a few weeks ago. Among batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher (and there are just a handful), Jose Abreu has the highest aEV (93.8 mph, 10 BBEs) against Phil Hughes. He's without a HR and has just three extra-base hits and seven strikeouts in 29 career PAs in this matchup.

To put it mildly, Bronson Arroyo has not been great in his first three starts of a clearly failing comeback attempt at the ripe age of 40. This afternoon, he gets the pleasure of facing the defending World Series champions and arguably the best lineup in the Majors. The one thing that Arroyo has done will to this point is limit hard contact to left-handed batters (23.8% HH%), but that is likely more of a result of a microscopic sample size than an actual trend, evidenced by his 11.1% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate. He's also been just as bad versus right-handed batters, striking them out only 14.6% of the time while surrendering a 45.2% fly ball rate and a 36.4% hard hit rate. After evaluating the aforementioned statistics, it really is difficult to imagine Arroyo shutting down the Cubs offense this afternoon and hitters from both sides of the plate are firmly in play for all formats. Anthony Rizzo (150 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .259 ISO since 2016) and Kris Bryant (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .223 ISO since 2016) are the clear top Chicago bats virtually any time the Cubs are facing a weak right-handed pitcher, closely followed by Kyle Schwarber (147 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .252 ISO career vs RHP), who seems to finally be breaking out of his early-season slump. Although unexciting to roster, Ben Zobrist (120 wRC+, .354 wOBA since 2016) looks to be the top candidate to round out the stack in tournaments given his batting position in the order and relative succes versus righties. All in all, everything adds up to the Cubs hitters being the definitive best options to target on the main slate, and frankly, it's not even close.

Bronson Arroyo has allowed four HRs already, looking to make up for his two lost years, last pitching in 2014. He has allowed as many as 46 HRs in a season, so it's no surprise the RotoGrinders HR Predictor, which has been on target this month, favors a couple of Baltimore bats (Mark Trumbo - 8.72% & Chris Davis - 8.67%) more than any others tonight. The Orioles do have the second highest implied run line tonight (5.06). Manny Machado (7.19%) joins them as the fifth most likely to go deep tonight, followed by teammates Adam Jones (6.73%) and Seth Smith (6.73%). Nelson Cruz (7.83%) and Trevor Story (7.47%) are the only non-Orioles in the top seven.

Tonight's top projected hitters reads like the top of the prospect board five years ago with Harper, Machado and Trout the only three batters projected for 12 points or more on FanDuel, though Murphy and Springer join them at nine points on DraftKings. Those looking to be more thrifty (perhaps to pay up for pitching) might opt to pivot from Machado on DK to Moustakas (2.49 Pt/$/K), who has a 134 wRC+ and .302 ISO vs RHP since last year and has a matchup at home against Matt Cain. The top value on FD is projected to be Seth Smith (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since last year) facing Bronson Arroyo, who has already allowed four HRs this season. Max Scherzer is easily the top projected pitcher overall tonight, while Luis Severino (4.33 Pt/$/K on FanDuel) might give players the best return on their fantasy dollars.

In 60 career PAs, Brian McCann has taken Ricky Nolasco deep, by far the highest BvP total on the board today, but we must consider that many of those battles occurred when both playing for NL East teams. Both are regarded as different players now, though McCann still has some pop in his bat. In fact, only five BBE have been recorded by Statcast between the two (91.9 mph aEV). J.J. Hardy has the second most HRs (3) against the pitcher he is facing tonight, but again, his battles against Bronson Arroyo are so far in the past, Statcast was only a glimmer in MLB's eye at the time, without a record of a single one of those batted balls. Among those with at least 10 recorded BBE against a particular pitcher, Xander Bogaerts has the highest aEV (96.6 mph, 11 BBE) against Marcus Stroman. He's even been moved to the leadoff spot tonight and has three extra-base hits in 17 PAs against Stroman, normally an elite ground ball generator, in his career. David Freese (94.6 mph aEV) and Gregory Polanco (94 mph aEV) are next highest on that list against Mike Leake, while Andrew McCutchen has two HRs against him, but just an 85.9 mph aEV on 17 BBE.