Bud Norris Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Much like Felix Hernandez yesterday, James Paxton returns from the DL for the Mariners tonight off of a long layoff and is only expected to throw 50 pitches tonight. With the minor league season having ended, he was unable to throw a rehab start, which essentially takes a top arm off the board for daily fantasy players tonight. He's unlikely to be the only starter likely to be working under a pitch limit well below 100 tonight either. Matt Andriese has not exceeded 74 pitches in three outings since returning from the DL. Bud Norris has been a single inning reliever all season. His season high is 41 pitches, set in April. Jeremy Jeffress gets his first major league start. He’s hit the 40 pitch mark a few times this season, but never as many as 50. RotoGrinders Research Tools covers relievers on both a team wide and individual basis, information that's likely to be very useful for tonight's slate.

Bud Norris returns from the DL due to a back issue to face the Reds. He had a 19.2 K-BB% over 58 innings since Atlanta restored him to the starting rotation before the trade. He faced 22 A ball batters in a rehab start, striking out just four and the normal course of action would be to exercise caution with pitchers returning from injury, but he returns in a favorable spot in Cincinnati against an offense that struggles against RHP (86 wRC+) and has a 22.3 K% at home, while he costs just $5.7K on DraftKings. He may be able to surpass that price even if he's on a lower pitch count tonight. This is a pitcher who has struggled with LHBs though (.382 wOBA, 40.3 Hard% since last season). Joey Votto (164 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) continues to be a consistent top bat (203 wRC+, 59.1 Hard% last seven days). Schebler and Barnhart are below average LHBs that cost around $2.5K on FanDuel if you need to punt an Outfield or Catcher spot. This may be a spot where Billy Hamilton can run and he's up to a 90 wRC+ on the year vs RHP, but he costs more than $5K on DraftKings.

Bud Norris has gotten banged around in his last few starts (14 ERs over his last 16.1 innings) with five HRs over that span, but still some strong peripherals, striking out 18 of 74 batters. Back home in a pitcher's park against a high strikeout offense (24.2% vs RHP) that loses their DH, he may have some value for around $6.5K on either site. There aren't many pitchers on this slate that surpass his 21.7 K% this season. However, on the opposite end, LHBs have a .391 wOBA and 40.7 Hard% against him. Perhaps it's another point in his favor that the Rays are only playing three tonight, but Corey Dickerson (106 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this season) projects well for less than $4K on either site and Brad Miller (100 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP this season) may be a top value SS for just $2.9K on FanDuel.

With each passing start, what Norris is doing continues to look more and more legit. Since returning to the rotation with Atlanta, Norris has posted a 3.24 SIERA to go along with a 19.9% K-BB% and a 53.3% GB%. The increases in strikeouts is even supported by a respectable 11.3% SwStr%. There is some concern with his lack of innings, as Norris has only topped six innings pitched once in his last six starts, so that does cap his upside to some extent. Norris has had problems with left-handed batters (4.86 xFIP, .373 wOBA, 5.0% K-BB%), so he’ll need to find a way to navigate Daniel Murphy (173 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP), but this Nationals team is just an average offense against right-handed pitching (93 wRC+, .313 wOBA, .166 ISO).

Bud Norris has a 19.6 K-BB% and 26.9 Hard% in seven starts since returning from a bullpen banishment in Atlanta. While Arizona has just a 91 wRC+ and 23.3 K% vs RHP, they have a 16.8 HR/FB at home. A dangerous park and the fact that Norris has only completed six innings in three of those seven starts are the biggest concerns, though he's a viable secondary pitcher option for a low $6.3K cost on DraftKings. Arizona only has a few bats worthy of consideration against RHP, but Jake Lamb (166 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this season) has turned into a beast. He costs $5.5K on DK, but is a great value at just $3.5K on FD. LHBs still have a .375 wOBA and .401 Hard% vs Norris since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since last season) is worth a roster spot, though not cheap in most home games. Chris Herrmann (111 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP this season) sneaks into the OF as a great value at Catcher for $2.8K on FanDuel tonight.

Kevin Gausman and Bud Norris aren't household names but both have been pitching well this season and make for excellent GPP plays (or SP2's on two pitcher sites) today. Gausman has a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8% and a walk rate of 5.2% and gets a boost by pitching in a NL park today. Norris on the other hand has been exceptional in his five starts with a 2.65 SIERA and strikeout rate of 30.7%. He's also very affordable which will allow you to build some hitter-heavy lineups. There are some hitters we can use as one-off plays or contrarian plays like Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Justin Turner, and Trayce Thompson but there are better hitting match ups out there that you should be looking at instead of targeting hitters from this game.

Bud Norris had a 24.6 K% with a 58.2 GB% without a HR allowed in five June starts (plus one inning of relief). None of it’s likely to persist, especially the HR drought, but this is a guy who was booted to the bullpen in Atlanta at the end of April after allowing six HRs over his first five starts. He starts his Dodgers tenure against a Colorado team that has retained their power against RHP road (15.0 HR/FB on the road, 15.1 HR/FB vs RHP), but do suffer overall outside Coors (15.7 K-BB%). He makes for a great GPP play tonight for less than $7K. The Colorado lineup looks much thinner without Story, but LHBs are much better against Norris anyway (.379 wOBA and 40.4 Hard% since last season). Carlos Gonzalez (147 wRC+, .300 ISO vs RHP, 102 wRC+ on the road since 2015) is a bat players can still look to here. Daniel Descalso (175 wRC+ vs RHP this season) will suffer outside Coors, but may serve as a middle infield punt play for $2.1K on DraftKIngs.

Bud Norris has struck out 13 of his last 44 batters and hasn’t allowed a HR since April in over 35 innings. He might even be worth a secondary pitcher slot on DraftKings for the near minimum if paying up for Fernandez tonight, especially with Marcell Ozuna being out tonight. If not though, he still has allowed a .387 wOBA and 41.6 Hard% to LHBs since last season. Derek Dietrich (137 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) bats in the unfortunate 7th slot again and Christian Yelich (156 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is quite expensive, but Justin Bour (127 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is an affordable fifth place hitter tonight and perhaps the best value in the lineup. Norris has been more average against RHBs, but Giancarlo Stanton (93 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP this season) costs $3.6K or less and has a 215 wRC+ over the last week, including a HR last night.

Bud Norris is a human launching pad. He has walked 11.5% of batters this year and the Cubs have walked at the same pace (11.2%) vs RHP. He has additionally allowed a 13.6 HR/FB and 19.4 Hard-Soft%. The Cubs are projected for nearly five runs and could serve as a slightly cheaper alternative to Coors tonight, though their price tags are still up there. Stil, for below $5K DK/$4.5K FD, the LH bats + Bryant (143 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP career) need to be strongly considered. Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appears to be one of the top overall bats tonight. He carries the hottest bat on the team (211 wRC+ over the last week).