Burch Smith Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Burch Smith has started five games and thrown 59 total innings including his pen work for the Royals this year. LHBs have a .396 wOBA against him. RHBs have a .329 wOBA, but a .368 xwOBA and 48.8 Hard% against him with a 38.3 GB%. The bullpen behind him is atrocious. The Cardinals are one of five teams above five implied runs tonight (5.13) and this is a great spot for them through the top five. Matt Carpenter (154 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the only real masher among the group, but Yadier Molina (109 wRC+, .182 ISO), Marcell Ozuna (109 wRC+, .150 ISO), Jose Martinez (121 wRC+, .156 ISO) and Paul DeJong (120 wRC+, .202 ISO) are all average or better bats who can be affordably stacked.

The Indians (5.94) and Mets (5.31) are the only two pens above a five FIP over the last month, while the former boasts a 14.7 K-BB% over that span and has recently added top arms, the former has recently traded one with an 8.6 K-BB% and absolutely loves blowing up Zack Wheeler starts. The Royals are sitting on a 4.76 FIP and 4.3 K-BB% over the last month and are going entirely with the bullpen tonight. Burch Smith starts, but has totaled 5.1 innings in his two starts. Both pitchers in Baltimore average fewer than five innings per start with the visiting pen (Boston 3.86 FIP, 17.6 K-BB% last 30 days) being a bit better than the home pen (4.25 FIP, 12.4 K-BB%). Eric Lauer does not go deep into games often. The Padres have a 3.21 FIP and 21.2 K-BB%, but just traded away two of their top relievers. Felix Pena is usually limited and has one of the worst bullpens in baseball behind him (4.85 FIP, 11.4 K-BB%). Jeremy Hellickson rarely goes six innings and has an average pen behind him (4.20 FIP, 13.8 K-BB%) in Milwaukee. Both pitchers in Cincinnati (Homer Bailey, Austin Gomber) could need early relief. The Reds have a 4.49 FIP and 10.6 K-BB% over the last month. The Cardinals have a lower 3.91 FIP, but with just an 8.0 K-BB%. The Rays (4.01 FIP, 10.8 K-BB%), of course, will likely be utilizing their bullpen frequently, as they often do.

The Twins are the top projected offense on the afternoon slate. Only one team (Nationals) is within a run of their 5.56 implied run line when they face the Kansas City bullpen this afternoon. Burch Smith will start for the first time since 2013. His last outing consisted of four innings and 50 pitches, both season highs. If the Royals are aggressive, perhaps they push him past 60, but that could still mean just three innings in this spot or as many as five. The less the Royals have to employ their bullpen, the better for them, as this unit has a 4.90 FIP and 0.5 K-BB% over the last 30 days. Eddie Rosario (152 wRC+, .296 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (135 wRC+, .297 ISO) have been the big bats against RHP over the last calendar year, but nearly the entire lineup has some value here. Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .387 xwOBA, .095 ISO) costs less than $4K on DK and is $1K less on FD. Jorge Polanco (142 wRC+, .220 ISO) is $100 cheaper than Mauer on DK. Even Jake Cave (105 wRC+, ..394 xwOBA, .174 ISO) has been hitting the ball hard.

Although there are four afternoon games, both FanDuel and DraftKings are only including the first three on the afternoon slate. Pitching choices run from sub-optimal to unusable to not even really known. Both the Royals (Burch Smith) and Rays (Hunter Wood) will be working entirely out of the bullpen today. Among the remaining choices, Trevor Williams (17.3 K%, 4.75 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) will face a Washington lineup with a 4.88 implied run line. Lance Lynn (21.5 K%, 4.66 SIERA, .338 xwOBA) employs his 13.2 BB% in a great run prevention spot (Royals 81 wRC+, 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP) against a team that doesn't accept many free passes (6.7% vs RHP), but one that doesn't strike out either (19.6% vs RHP). The remaining options are Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann. Gonzalez has an 8.14 ERA and 6.66 FIP over his last six starts with a -0.8 K-BB% and will be facing another somewhat contact prone team (Pirates 21.2 K% vs LHP). He hasn't struck out more batters than he's walked in three starts and hasn't struck out more than four in a start since his first of June. Jordan ZImmermann is your top pitcher for Wednesday afternoon. He struck out 11 Rangers in eight innings last time out and is now up to a 24.8 K% for the season. He's thrown 20 innings, allowing just two runs over his last three starts and is down to a .302 xwOBA and 3.64 SIERA for the season. The Rays have just a 22.8 K% vs RHP, but that's actually the highest split on the board this afternoon. Months ago, nobody thought they'd be happy to pay $9.5K for Jordan Zimmermann right before the All-Star break, but here we are.