Cal Quantrill Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The fade Oakland and Detroit approach, meaning that you roster whoever’s pitching against those teams, has been a tried and true approach this year, even if it didn’t work out last night. However, it also explains why Cole Ragans and Cal Quantrill are the top projected values on the board tonight. Whether you want to trust them on a single pitcher site over Scherzer or Rodon…that’s a personal question for each player to answer themselves, but you’ll get all the information necessary to make those decisions here. Ragans has struck out just four of 44 batters faced with seven walks and three barrels (9.1%). The 24 year-old with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) has produced a 20.2 K-BB% over 43.1 innings at AAA this season. The A’s have an 87 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs LHP this season. Not good, but not the worst offense in the league. However, Ragans projects as the top value on either site, though seems to fit better in a SP2 spot on DraftKings for $900 less.

Quantrill tied a season high by striking out seven of 22 Blue Jays with only a single hit allowed and no walks last time out. Considering his season 16.0 K%, that probably shouldn’t be the expectation going forward. What he brings to the table is a 6.5 BB% and the ability to keep his pitch counts low and work deep into games should the batted balls find enough gloves. He does have Quality Starts in 12 of his last 20, but his 3.67 ERA is also more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 4.38 FIP to a 4.75 DRA. The Tigers are absolutely atrocious against RHP (68 wRC+, 25.2 K%, 7.2 HR/FB), which actually makes one consider Quantrill on a single pitcher site. However, he projects as the third best FanDuel value for $8.3K and the second best DraftKings one for exactly $7K.

In fact, Qauntrill is the most expensive of the top six projected values on FanDuel before we get to the big boys, but Daniel Norris and Rich Hill are certainly not single site pitchers. Domingo German probably isn’t either. He completed six innings for the first time in five starts last time out, but has just a 16.5 K% with a 90.7 mph EV (45.5% 95+ mph EV). Only 35.1% of his contact has been on the ground. This is not ideal at Yankee Stadium. On a positive note, his 10.2 SwStr% does suggest a few more strikeouts should be forthcoming, but right now, his 4.18 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators (81.6 LOB%). Yankee Stadium is a more neutral run environment than some people realize and the Rays do offer some upside against RHP (100 wRC+, 24.6 K%). German is $7K or less and a top three projected value on either site.

German Marquez projects as the sixth best value on either site. He has pitched at least six innings, allowing two runs or less in five of his last six starts, though his strikeout rate is down (17.6%) and his average exit velocity is up (91.5 mph) over this span. Somewhere along the way, he forgot how to miss bats. His 17.8 HR/FB is nearly las high as his 18.8 K% this season. Stranding just two-thirds of runners, his 5.08 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 3.93 xFIP to a 4.78 xERA, but that’s still below average work. He does get a massive park upgrade in St Louis, which could help from a run prevention standpoint, but Cardinal bats won’t offer much help (107 wRC+, 20.8 K% vs RHP).

On the other end of this matchup, the Rockies have been tough on LHP too (102 wRC+, 18.8 K%), but under similarly pitcher friendly conditions, Jordan Montgomery tied a season high, striking out eight of 24 Brewers last time out. Perhaps the Cardinals will have better success in maximizing his 13.7 SwStr% than the Yankees did. In fact, Montgomery hasn’t allowed a run over 11 innings as a Cardinal. His season strikeout rate is up to 20.8% with just a 5.1 BB% and 6.2% Barrels/BBE. While his 3.37 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.58 xFIP to a 4.31 DRA. However, he moves to a great defense (-15 Runs Prevented) and better park with the trade and those estimators should decrease if the strikeout rate rises. He may cost too much on FanDuel ($8.7K), but fits in well as a DK SP2 for just $6.9K.

Much like the top of the board, the middle of the board doesn’t really contain any stand out options, but does include a few interesting arms in dangerous spots, along with less interesting arms in stronger spots and some lower priced SP2 options. Cal Quantrill seems to be another in a long line of well-developed pitching prospects in Cleveland. While a 1.43 ERA over his last seven starts is a less than half his 3.09 FIP and 3.53 xFIP, the Indians would have taken any of those numbers over a full season with the 26.2 K% he’s added over this stretch, along with a 51.4 GB% and 85 mph EV. Contact neutral season estimators are still near four and a half. While Fenway may turn off most players, remember that the Red Sox are missing key bats at the moment due to COVID with just two in the projected lineup below a 22.8 K% vs RHP this season and Quantrill costs within $300 of $7.5K on either site.

Huascar Ynoa has just a 22.9 K% in six starts since the start of May, including just one above 25%. However, he’s also significantly improved his contact profile, allowing just six of his 16 barrels over that span as well. It’s difficult to figure out what to trust here. He has a 2.90 ERA, 4.35 xERA and everything else is between three and four. There’s also Coors, but the Rockies have just a 76 wRC+ vs RHP (94 wRC+ at home), while Ynoa is just $7.4K on FanDuel.

A game of interest may be in Miami tonight. Kyle Gibson has produced a quality start in all five attempts for the Phillies (though he got bashed by Dodgers in a bulk relief outing), despite just a 6.5 K-BB% (7.1 SwStr%) with his heavy ground ball rate (55.6%) staying intact. The biggest change to his pitch usage seems to be more of an emphasis on his cutter, which has just a 15.7 SwStr% in August. Gibson is riding just a 10.3 K-BB% on the season now, but with a 52.1 GB% and 4.1% Barrels/BBE. However, what makes him viable here is that five of eight in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP this season. Gibson costs $8.1K on DraftKings. Jesus Luzardo shut out the Reds through six one-hit innings, striking out eight of 22 batters with a single walk last time out, his first time going beyond five innings or allowing less than three innings in a start since April. Ironically, the Reds torched him for a 95.8 mph EV on average when they did make contact, his worst average exit velocity in a start this year by four mph. Despite just a 20.6 K%, Luzardo does have a 13.9 SwStr% with Miami and 13.1 SwStr% on the year. The Phillies don’t strike out much against LHP, but Luzardo is an elite SwStr% for less than $8K.

Antonio Senzatela, John Means and Michael Wacha would not be worth a mention if any of them cost more than $7K on DraftKings. Senzatela is a contact prone (16.2 K%) ground ball generator (52%) with good control (5.0 BB%). He hasn’t been terrible. Non-FIP estimators are all within one-third of a run of his 4.18 ERA. He has at least five Ks in six of his last eight starts and quality starts in each of his last four at home. Means is in Yankee Stadium against a team with a 112 wRC+ vs LHP, but is coming off two consecutive quality starts. He has a 19 K-BB% over his last six starts, in which a 65.2 LOB% has pushed his 4.83 ERA well above his 4.08 xFIP. Wacha’s 15.6 K-BB% is fine. It’s the 9.8% Barrels/BBE that’s the problem, nearly matching his 5.70 ERA to his 5.91 xERA with non-contact including estimators barely above four (.345 BABIP, 18.4 HR/FB). He’s in a great park and the projected lineup for the Twins includes three batters who strike out at least one-third of the time vs RHP.

Also worth mentioning, Glenn Otto is not a highly regarded prospect (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs, who struck out just 24.4% of batters over 30 innings at AAA for two different organizations this year, but 40.7% in 65.1 AA innings prior to that). He impressively struck out seven of 17 Astros in his major league debut, allowing just two hits without a walk, half his contact on the ground and an 84.2 mph EV. The only negatives were a 9.6 SwStr% and that two of his five non-ground balls were barrels. Fangraphs was still projecting him as a bullpen piece as late as May, due to a “limited repertoire”. He does cost just $5K on DK against a projected lineup with just two a single batter below a 25 K% vs RHP though.

Quantrill has a pretty unimpressive minor league resume and over 15 innings pitched this year he has a 5.40 ERA / 5.25 xFIP with a 7.2 K-BB% and a 39.7% Hard-Soft. He projects for a 5.73 ERA in 2019 according to THE BAT. The Blue Jays have a healthy 4.75 implied total vs. Quantrill in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this afternoon and have some good options to roster. Justin Smoak (.430 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.396), Rowdy Tellez (.361), and Eric Sogard (.323) project to hit at or near the top of the order and are all available for $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Cavan Biggio is available for just $3.1k and had a 149 wRC+ in AAA this year before recently getting called up. Smoak and Guerrero Jr. have been Toronto’s hottest hitters, each have an xwOBA > .450 over the past 10 days. Randall Grichuk (career 108 wRC+, .244 ISO) is also an option, he’s projected to hit 5th at just $3.9k on DK.