Caleb Joseph Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Liriano has been surprisingly solid from a pure results-based perspective to begin the 2018 campaign, as he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his first four outings, including a five-inning, seven-strikeout performance against the same Baltimore Orioles squad he faces Saturday evening. However, most of this "success" can be traced to a minuscule .193 BABIP and 82.6% LOB% that both vary greatly from Liriano's career .300 BABIP and 71.4% LOB%, further indicating that he will not be able to sustain these type of performances moving forward. On top of that, other red flags for Liriano include an elevated 38.3% hard-hit percentage and a lofty 13.0% walk rate that isn't too far off of the 12.1% rate he posted over the course of the 2017 season, both of which have led to a 4.82 SIERA and 4.69 xFIP that are drastically higher than his 3.13 ERA to this point. These discrepancies could regress to the mean in a hurry against this right-handed heavy Orioles lineup that sports just one left-handed hitter in Jace Peterson at the two-spot in tonight's official batting order. That said, Manny Machado (0.286 ISO, 0.433 xwOBA, 45.5% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18) and Danny Valencia (0.207 ISO, 0.390 xwOBA, 37.2% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18), who presents significant value at his price point across the industry, are still the only two standout Orioles hitters that profile well for any and all daily fantasy formats in this matchup, while Trey Mancini (0.399 xwOBA vs LHP in 2017/18) and Caleb Joseph (0.198 ISO, 0.440 xwOBA, 36.8% HH% vs LHP in 2017/18) are intriguing options to round out tournament stacks since they don't necessarily the possess the consistent individual upside to be considered as one-offs but could be integral parts of the Baltimore offensive output this evening.

While J.A. Happ had a league average .323 wOBA (.314 xwOBA) against right-handed batters last year and isn't a pitcher players should normally look to attack, especially with a sub-four implied run line, there are a few spots in the Baltimore lineup that players can hunt home runs with tonight. Happ has allowed three HRs over his first two starts (all to RHBs), while allowing 37 to RHBs since the start of 2016. Jonathan Schoop (149 wRC+, .278 ISO) and Manny Machado (122 wRC+, .267 ISO) have both been superior hitters against LHPs since the start of last season, the former costing less than $3.5K on either site. If you're looking to punt Catcher, Caleb Joseph (108 wRC+, .229 ISO) has shown some pop withe platoon advantage and costs less than $3K on either site.

Kevin's updated forecast suggests a potential window to get this game in, but C.C. Sabathia is still a significant risk with winds blowing out 15-20 mph to left against a lineup with a lot of right-handed power. Though only Manny Machado (110 wRC+, .239 ISO vs LHP since 2017), Jonathan Schoop (155 wRC+, ,289 ISO) and Tim Beckham (114 wRC+, .293 ISO) have shown significant upside against southpaws, rain concerns make this a somewhat concerning spot. Sabathia has learned to use his remaining skills to generate weak contact and remain somewhat of a league average output after his velocity has left him. An 84.4 mph aEV last year helps confirm a .310 wOBA. While he didn't really have much of a split, his .320 xwOBA against RHBs is really still only league average and just 10 points above his actual mark, which diminishes the outlook for a Baltimore offense with just a 3.84 implied run line as well. Danny Valencia (121 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP since last season) and Caleb Joseph (121 wRC+, .246 ISO) may be acceptable punt options at $3K or less, should players accept the weather related risk and be paying up for pitching.

John Jaso (345 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) has the top wRC+ in the majors over the last week (10 PA min.). He's in a somewhat difficult spot at home against Johnny Cueto tonight, who is allowing a hard contact rate above 35% to LHBs this year and 8.2% Barrels/BBE overall. The biggest surprise about Jaso this year is a power spike (.222 ISO vs RHP). Caleb Joseph (337 wRC+, 85.7 Hard%, 1 HR) is the only other batter with a wRC+ above 300, but that's only in 11 PAs and Jacob Faria is probably not the guy you want to play a light hitting, bottom of the order catcher against, although weather conditions in Baltimore are expected to be ripe for power. Danny Valencia (282 wRC+, 40 Hard%, one HR) faces rookie Parker Bridwell (RHBs .352 wOBA, 45 Hard%), who has an 89.7 mph aEV so far. Khris Davis (264 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, three HRs) hits RHP well (141 wRC+, .298 ISO this year), but Mike Foltynewicz has held RHBs to a .310 wOBA and 25.4 Hard% since last season. George Springer (260 wRC+, 31.6 Hard%, three HRs) might be the top play on this list. Michael Pineda has little platoon split (RHBs .324 wOBA since last season) and is coming off a start in which he allowed three runs. An interesting thing you'll find is that if you sort on Fangraphs by hard hit rate over the last 7 days (10 PA min. again), eight of the 12 batters at 60% or above are catchers.

J.D. Martinez (434 wRC+, 70 Hard%, 4 HRs) is the hottest bat on the slate over the last week (10 PA min.), homering twice last night and making his impact felt after missing the first month and a half of the season. He has a neutral matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez (RHBs .306 wOBA since 2016), but should bat with runners on base if Ubaldo is his normal wild self. Eric Sogard is the second hottest hitter on the slate (399 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 2 HRs). The two bombs represent 20% of his career total and San Diego is not a favorable environment, but he costs less than $3K on either site and could bat near the top of the order again against Jhoulys Chacin (LHBs .340 wOBA since 2016). A pair of Orioles follow with Chris Davis (385 wRC+, 81.8 Hard%, 4 HRs) and Caleb Joseph (357 wRC+, .45.5 Hard%, 1 HR). The former is at least an interesting consideration, even against Michael Fulmer (LHBs .255 wOBA career), as he's a formidable opponent for any RHP when he's this hot. Jayson Werth (310 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, 1 HR) finds himself in a difficult environment for RHBs againsta tough pitcher (Gerrit Cole) and may be better off avoided tonight. Ian Happ has had a red hot start to his major league career (296 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, 2 HR) and is basically free in the middle of the Cubs' lineup with the wind blowing out at Wrigley.

A struggling Adam Jones with just a 55 wRC+, 23.8 Hard% over the last week and 86 wRC+ vs LHP since last year is dropped down in the order to 5th tonight against John Danks, who should be the most popular target for DFS lineups. All of his ERA estimators are above five and a half with a 6.23 ERA to go along. He's been about average vs LHBs (.314 wOBA), but has allowed RHBs a .356 wOBA since last season. Strangely, the Orioles have a couple of reverse platoon split guys in their lineup, including Manny Machado, who at least hits LHP at a better rate than Jones (101 wRC+ since 2015). Machado has just a 42 wRC+ over the last week, but a 39.1 Hard%. Mark Trumbo is likely the top dog here. He has a 95.82 mph exit velocity this season and drills LHP (146 wRC+, .283 ISO, 40.1 Hard%) since last season. Chris Davis brings an average bat (103 wRC+, .180 ISO) against lefties, while the rookie Rickard should also be a part of stacks batting leadoff for a team projected for 4.57 runs. It's often okay to look further down the lineup for scarce positions on short slates, but J.J. Hardy has just a 33 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Caleb Joseph, tonight's Catcher, does have a 34.9 Hard% against LHP since 2015 though.