Caleb Smith Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Citi Field is just one of two non-controlled environments tonight and the weather is expected to play a part. Temperatures are warmer than usual for this time of year (above 80 degrees) with winds blowing out to center up to 20 mph. The pattern is so rare that Weather Edge doesn’t have any matching conditions. Caleb Smith would likely be the more negatively affected pitcher if Citi Field were to become a neutral or better run scoring or power environment. While his 27.4 K% and 79.1 Z-Contact% are top three marks on the board, he has just a 26.9 GB%. He’s been able to generate a near league average 15.8 HR/FB due to a power suppressing home park. His 10.9% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Then there’s also the fact that he’s collapsed down the stretch. He has just a 21 K% over the last month with a 6.08 ERA and .342 xwOBA. His only quality start in his last six was against the Royals at home. The Mets have a 108 wRC+ and 17 HR/FB at home, a 112 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP and a 117 wRC+ and 27.1 HR/FB over the last seven days. Implied for 5.31 runs, the Mets are just third on a ten team board, but could be the most potent offense on the board. Each of the first six batters in the Mets’ lineup is above a 125 wRC+ vs LHP this season with Amed Rosario (128 wRC+, .206 ISO), Pete Alonso (143 wRC+, .350 ISO), J.D. Davis (134 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Todd Frazier (144 wRC+, .267 ISO) all above a .200 ISO. Wilson Ramos (153 wRC+, .184 ISO) doesn’t quite reach that mark, but may be the top catcher on the board tonight anyway.

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Blake Snell could fall into a couple of categories. The Rays are tied for the second wild card, but has thrown just two major league innings since July 21st. He can’t possibly be considered for a normal workload and is far too expensive for anything but. Similarly, Jhoulys Chacin has not faced more than 15 batters in an outing for the Red Sox.

Chandler Shepherd, Caleb Smith and Alex Young are all in their first full season. Shepherd hasn’t reached 120 innings on the year, but has been limited to four innings (19 batters) or less in all three major league outings. Smith is above 150 innings for the first time in his professional career and hasn’t necessarily been more limited, but has just a 21 K%, 6.08 ERA, 6.03 FIP and .342 xwOBA over the last 30 days. Alex Young is right around his workload for the last three seasons. He’s interesting due to a 12.7 SwStr% with a .308 xwOBA and 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but his estimators are all well above his ERA due to a .245 BABIP and more than 20% of his runs being unearned.

Clay Buchholz is not young and does have a favorable matchup (Orioles 85 wRC+ vs RHP), but he has been injured and bad (13.6 K%, ERA & estimators all above five, .366 xwOBA, 12.3% Barrels/BBE). The Orioles also pounded him for seven runs and two HRs in his last start.

Caleb Smith has a 27.8 K% and 4.13 ERA that matches his 4.19 DRA and .316 xwOBA. All pretty decent stuff. However, an extreme fly ball pitcher (27.4%), his 10.9% Barrels/BBE can get hidden a bit in Miami, especially with all the strikeouts. Over the last month though, the strikeout rate is down to 23.4%, as Smith has allowed eight HRs over five starts. Nineteen of his 29 HRs have come on the road this season and that’s where he pitches tonight, in Arizona, against an offense with a 116 wRC+ and 18.2 HR/FB vs LHP. The Arizona lineup has already been posted and features five batters above a 125 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs LHP this year: Ketel Marte (147 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .273 ISO), Wilmer Flores (160 wRC+, .309 ISO), Nick Ahmed (143 wRC+, 256 ISO) and Carson Kelly (187 wRC+, .325 ISO). All are above a .340 xwOBA against LHP this year as well. While the Diamondbacks are implied for a healthy 5.1 runs, that’s still just a middle of the board mark tonight and bottom of the order bats here would seem a very contrarian way to go in GPPs.

Caleb Smith has been dominant at times this year (29.1 K%), but he’s also benefited from his home ballpark with a 28.5 GB% and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, 14 of his 21 HRs have been surrendered in just 54.2 road innings this year. This is a dangerous spot for him against an Atlanta lineup featuring four batters above a .270 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Ronald Acuna (157 wRC+, .292 ISO), Ozzie Albies (172 wRC+, .277 ISO), Josh Donaldson (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Adam Duvall (84 wRC+, .273 ISO) might be considered a contrarian approach as Smith may not want to attack, despite a healthy 5.57 implied run line. Another benefit is that he hasn’t gone beyond five innings in five straight starts. That leaves a depleted Miami bullpen with a 7.06 FIP over the last 30 days to pick up the slack.

Caleb Smith returned to pitch marginally well in Atlanta after a month on the IL and now gets another week off with the break. He’s allowed a HR in nine straight starts now, one of the dangers of a 29.3 GB%. Seven of those starts have been on the road however. It’s no secret that fly balls play much better in Miami and only two of his 15 HRs this year have been allowed during his five home starts. The 31.1 K% (77.7 Z-Contact%) in a great park certainly plays against most offenses regardless of the 11.6% Barrels/BBE. The Mets do own a split high 118 wRC+ vs LHP with a 17.8 HR/FB, but also a 15.8 K-BB%. Pete Alonso (194 wRC+, .475 ISO vs LHP) can hit it out of any park, but for less than $9K Caleb Smith still certainly has value with the upside he’s capable of. One of the larger concerns here is that he’s only gone beyond 95 pitches four times this year and not at all in any of his last five starts.

Caleb Smith is the most interesting pitcher near the top of the board tonight. That’s because he combines the highest upside per batter. His 33.2 K% is just behind Chris Sale, while his 15.9 SwStr% is best on the board as is his 76.1 Z-Contact%. He has allowed barrels at a 10.2% clip on contact, but that’s more to do with his 28.5 GB% than an 87.3 mph aEV. He is coming off his worst start of the season in Washington (3 IP – 7 ER – 1 K), but that’s after seven straight starts of two runs or less. He’s not home tonight, but he’s in another favorable park in San Diego against an offense with a 26.9 K% vs LHP. Now, remember the “per batter” qualifier above…that’s because he’s only gone beyond 22 faced three times this year. However, there doesn’t seem to be a theme to Mattingly’s leash here. He’s gone beyond 100 pitches three times, but then also been pulled after 89 two starts back before his poor effort in Washington. The good news is that Smith is below $10K here with the ability to pay off in five great or six good innings and perhaps the shorter outings last two times out will give him a bit larger workload tonight.