Carlos Beltran Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Both the Astros (3.8) and Yankees (3.7) sport implied run lines significantly lower than the NLCS participants. Masahiro Tanaka has followed up a regular season finale in which he struck out 15 batters with 10 strikeouts of 46 post-season batters in 13 innings with a 52.9 GB%. His 11.9 Hard-Soft% this season was the highest among all four of today's starters, as was his 4.74 ERA, though his 3.52 SIERA and 25.8 K% (15.1 SwStr%) are actually the best marks among today's pitchers. Tanaka's greatest issue was the HR ball (35 allowed) and he did not discriminate. LHBs had a .316 wOBA, 16 HRs, 21.9 K-BB%, 55 GB% and 32.1 Hard%, while RHBs had a .333 wOBA, 19 HRs, 19.2 K-BB%, 45.1 GB% and 31 Hard%. This may play in Houston's favor with a lineup that leans towards RHBs who handle RHP extremely well. They repeat their Game Three lineup, which has a .354 wOBA, .200 ISO and only a 16.1 K% vs RHP this year. Every batter in the lineup had an ISO above .170 against RHP this year. Only Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann did not exceed both a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP. Carlos Correa and George Springer each have two career HRs against Tanaka in 14 PAs according to Daily Baseball Data. Jose Altuve has one HR in as many PAs. No other Houston batter has more than eight PAs against him, but Josh Reddick and Bregman also have a single HR. With both high strikeout and HR potential, exposure to both sides of this matchup is certainly warranted. Tanaka's margin for error is difficult to project. The Yankees have the strongest bullpen of the remaining teams and certainly don't want to go back to Houston facing elimination, though he seems to inspire a bit more confidence than his NLCS counterparts. The man calling the balls and strikes appears to be Jerry Meals, according to RiverAveBlues (a popular Yankees blog). Via Swish Analytics umpire factors, available right here at RotoGrinders, Meals has called 314 games with a 19.6 K% and 8.2 BB%, a fairly average umpire (1.05 K-Boost, 1.01 BB-Boost). Weather is unlikely to play a factor in this game. Kevin's forecast calls for wind speeds in the single digits, blowing slightly out to left with warmer than usual temperatures for this time of year, near 70 degrees.

Sonny Gray has not pitched since October 5th when Cleveland touched him up for three runs in 3.1 innings. He faced 17 batters, with four walks, two strikeouts and a HR allowed. Only 40% of his contact was on the ground. As a Yankee, he allowed 11 HRs in 11 starts with just an 11.5 K-BB% and 47.3 GB%. With Sabathia and Warren eating up eight innings last night, the Yankee bullpen should be well-rested and ready to relieve Gray early should his struggles continue, which makes him difficult to consider, especially on a single pitcher site. The specific lineup being employed by the Astros today had a .356 wOBA, .200 ISO and just a 16.1 K% vs RHP this season. Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO v RHP) each have a single HR against Gray. Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP) is the only player in the lineup with more than 20 career PAs against him, though only Carlos Correa is below Altuve's .767 OPS against Gray according to DailyBaseballData.com. Alex Bregman (109 wRC+, .274 ISO), Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO) and McCann are the only batters in the lineup below a 130 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this season. Price tags for most of those bats except for Josh Reddick ($3.8K DK, $2.8K FD) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3K DK) are fairly high. Gurriel has been tearing up post-season pitching (186 wRC+, 7.1 K%, .154 ISO, but a .458 BABIP). While it's expected to be a bit chilly at Yankee Stadium this afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees, wind isn't expected to be much of a factor. Chris Guccione is expected to be tonight's home plate umpire. In 314 games called in the Swish Analytics database, Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders, he's leaned towards pitchers with a 1.12 K-Boost and 0.92 BB-Boost (19.7 K%, 8.0 BB%).

Doug Fister may seem an odd choice to start Game Three for the Red Sox and Houston does have the highest implied run line (5.01) by more than half a run when all four teams exceed four runs today. He's certainly not a pitcher players want to utilize (even on a two game slate), but there is some real life justification for this choice. The Astros are a predominantly right-handed lineup, at least with their better parts (four LHBs or switch hitters in today's lineup). LHBs maul Doug Fister both this year (.365 wOBA, 39.6 Hard%) and to some extent, for his career (.323 wOBA, 30.7 Hard%). But he's been able to smother RHBs to the tune of a .258 wOBA, 14.5 K-BB%, 53.4 GB%, 0.8 Hard-Soft% this year and .293 wOBA, 55.7 GB% and 1.1 Hard-Soft% for his career, far superior to Rick Porcello's numbers againsts RHBs. That said, RH Houston core bats like Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .239 ISO), Jose Altuve (158 wRC+, .200 ISO) and George Springer (131 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) have been so efficient against same-handed pitching that their use in a four game slate is certainly not precluded, though they may be a bit over-valued where guys like Marwin Gonzalez (154 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Reddick (131 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) may be your top bats (both exactly $2.7K on DraftKings). Brian McCann (104 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP) and Carlos Beltran (91 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) are also cheap enough that they may be great values too. The other thing to consider here is that in an elimination game, all hands are on deck. Doug Fister has no margin for error and may only get through the lineup once or twice. Josh Reddick could be facing a LHP in the majority of his plate appearances. The Boston bullpen for this game should be the entire staff (would they use Chris Sale in short relief?). Also, Kevin's forecast believes the weather will be a factor in this one, not from a rain standpoint, but with 15 to 30 mile per hour winds blowing out to center, making a normally power suppressing park (though an extremely positive run environment) potentially play more power friendly. Ted Barrett is listed as the Home Plate Umpire by Swish Analytics Umpire Factors available on RotoGrinders. In 323 games, batters have a 19.9 K% and 7.8 BB% with him behind the dish. Boost Stats show him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (0.98 K-Boost, 1.03 BB-Boost).

Cashner comes into tonight's game against the Houston Astros in search of his seventh quality start in his last nine outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 5.56 SIERA on the season. With that said, he has been far from immune from a blow-up start from time to time and has certainly shown some cracks in the armor at times this season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 12.0% strikeout rate and high 9.3% walk rate, which should combine to make a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 3.44 ERA that is mostly driven by his ability to limit hard contact to just 28.9% of the time. It's frustratingly obvious that Cashner's luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, we can at least bank on his struggles against left-handed hitters to continue down the stretch run. Against lefties, he still has the low strikeouts (11.9% K%) with a high line drive (20.6% LD%) and fly ball rates (42.2% FB%) to go along with just an insane .233 BABIP that has still somehow failed to correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner's caliber. Considering his tremendous amount of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to feel supremely confident about, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Marwin Gonzalez (157 wRC+, .452 wOBA, .248 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Reddick (124 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP) the main Astros hitters to focus exposure and are elite plays on Wednesday's slate. Meanwhile, Carlos Beltran (.190 ISO RHP) and Derek Fisher (45.5% HH%, .175 ISO vs RHP) lack some elite skill sets but can definitely be considered as part of any Houston stack given Cashner's major deficiencies to left-handed bats. The trickier side of this matchup is the Astros right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 58.7% groundball rate and a below-average 28.3% hard hit rate, which are skills he's consistently exhibited in the past and likely are sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner's overall track record he's prone to a blow up at any time, but with the likelihood of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to Astros righties like Jose Altuve. (168 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .205 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (137 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP), and Yulieski Gurriel (121 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .194 ISO vs RHP) to just large-field tournaments, if at all, on tonight's main slate.

Charlie Blackmon is, unsuprisingly, the top projected hitter on the slate, facing a RHP with a .349 wOBA against LHBs at Coors tonight. Nolan Arenado joins him in the top five according from the RotoGrinders Player Projections, though Mike Foltynewicz has handle RHBs better (.318 wRC+, 25.7 Hard% since last season). Freddie Freeman is the other top five projected Coors bat. LHBs have a .322 wOBA and 34.6 Hard% against Jon Gray since last season. This year, he has just an 8.0 SwStr% overall. Anthony Rizzo rounds out the top three against Homer Bailey (LHBs .385 wOBA, 37.4 Hard% since last season). Andrew Benintendi (LHBs .342 wOBA vs Lance Lynn since last year) and Joey Votto (LHBs .339 wOBA vs John Lackey) both find themselves a top five projected batter on at least one site tonight. Kris Bryant makes the Cubs the only other team besides the Rockies to have two batters in the top 10 among overall projections despite the Rangers being sandwiched in between the two teams in terms of implied runs tonight. Players looking for value can turn to Kike Hernandez on FanDuel (4.1 Pt/$/K) for just over the minimum. DraftKings players have more Carlos Beltran (2.36 Pt/$/K), Rougned Odor (2.27 Pt/$/K) and Kyle Schwarber (2.27 Pt/$/K) all in the middle of strong offenses for $3.6K or less.

According to Statcast, two batters have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing tonight, both with a lot of history in the matchup. Carlos Beltran has faced Ubaldo Jimenez 29 times with five extra-base hits, but more amazingly, no strikeouts. His 89.6 mph aEV on eight BBEs in the Statcast era is above average, though not that impressive. Sustaining an ISO a bit above .200 in the middle of one of the top offenses tonight, he should be a strong consideration against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .398 wOBA since last season. Brian Dozier has four extra-base hits in 34 PAs against Anibal Sanchez with eight strikeouts. On 11 Statcast recorded BBEs, he has a 92.7 mph aEV. He also has a 240 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. Sanchez had been pitching better until allowing three HRs in his last start. Dozier is also the only batter to exceed a 90.4 mph aEV among batters who have at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight's pitcher. Dropping the requirement to eight BBEs gives us a pair of hard hitting White Sox against Ian Kennedy. Jose Abreu has a 97.1 mph on nine BBEs, but no extra-base hits in 11 PAs. Melky Cabrera has a 93.1 mpph aEV (eight BBEs), but four extra-base hits (two HRs) in 22 PAs.

George Springer is the top projected batter tonight, atop the RotoGrinders Player Projection board. In fact, three of the top four are Astros (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) with Bryce Harper (facing Mike Foltynewicz if weather cooperates) breaking up the Houston party in the second spot. RHBs have a .370 wOBA against Francisco Liriano this year. Paul Goldschmidt rounds out the top five, but he's be a risky pay up against a lefty who seems to have found his curveball again (Rich Hill). Houston appears to dominate the value projections as well with Carlos Beltran (2.4 Pt/$/K) looking strong on DraftKings, along with Springer (2.2 Pt/$/K), while Evan Gattis has the top value projection on FanDuel (4.04 Pt/$/K).

All six batters with more than 11 Statcast recorded BBEs against the pitcher they are facing tonight are Philadelphia Phillies against Bartolo Colon in a game that has an ominous weather forecast, while no batter even exceeds a 94 mph aEV and Freddy Galvis owning the single HR. While both Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran have two career HRs against Ian Kennedy both have a combined three Statcast recorded BBEs in the matchup and players have more than enough ammunition to support a Houston stack tonight. Kris Bryant has homered twice in seven PAs against Dan Straily as well, but has just an 89.9 mph aEV on six BBEs, while the wind is expected to be blasting in from left-center at Wrigley tonight (20 to 30 mph). Getting back to exit velocity (10 BBE min.), Lorenzo Cain appears to be the most interesting PvB play. He has a 94.9 mph aEV on 11 BBEs against Mike Fiers and has struck out just once in 13 PAs. This supports Fiers' tendency to struggle more against RHBs (.384 wOBA, 36.8 Hard%, 39.9 GB% since last season). He's averaging a HR allowed every 13 batters this year (18 total).

Andrew Cashner comes into tonight's game against the Houston Astros in search of his sixth quality start in his last eight outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 6.02 SIERA on the season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 10.7% strikeout rate and high 12.5% walk rate, which combine to make a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 2.92 ERA that is mostly driven by a low BABIP and his ability to limit hard contact to the tune of a 29.3% rate. It's obvious that Cashner's luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, it's an even greater guarantee that his success against left-handed hitters will not continue. He still has the low strikeouts, high line drive (20.3% LD%) and fly ball rates (43.0% FB%), and just a .224 BABIP that has yet to correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner's caliber. Considering his tremendous streak of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to break down, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Marwin Gonzalez (197 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .374 ISO vs RHP), Josh Reddick (116 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .197 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Beltran (.199 ISO vs RHP), and even Brian McCann, despite his struggles, the main Astros hitters to focus exposure. The trickier side of this matchup is the Houston right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 58.3% groundball rate and an average 30.6% hard hit rate, which are skills he's exhibited in the past and may actually be sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner's overall track record he's prone to a blow up at any time, but with the possibility of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to the Astros righties like Carlos Correa (161 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Altuve (143 wRC+, .379 wOBA vs RHP) to just tournaments on Saturday's main slate.

Jose Berrios has 18 strikeouts over his last 52 batters and perhaps just as importantly has only walked only three. Players may want to proceed with caution in this particular matchup though because he faces the best offense in baseball. The Astros are the top road offense (121 wRC+), best against RHP (123 wRC+) and the hottest team in over the last week (151 wRC+). They are not the best in ever area though. Jose Berrios has just a 37.6 GB% and Houston is merely second with a 117 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers. They are tied for the most HRs against fly ball pitchers though (43). Marwin Gonzalez has been the key culprit with a seven HRs and a 198 sOPS+. He doesn't often play against RHPs, but if he's in there, players now know why. In fact, every regular on the team has at least a 107 sOPS+ and three HRs against fly ball pitchers except Carlos Beltran (64 sOPS+, 3 HRs) and Alex Bregman (79 sOPS+, 1 HR).