Carlos Corporan

Texas Rangers
Pos: C | Hand: S
Status: Inactive
player props

Carlos Corporan Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Sonny Gray has completed five innings just once with the worst aEV (92.1 mph) on the board

Sonny Gray is off to a disastrous start. He’s completed five innings just once and has walked nine with just four strikeouts over his last two starts (43 BF). He’s not generating ground balls, which his 92.1 mph aEV and 48.6% 95+ mph EV are both worst on the board. Not only should players avoid him, but they should be rostering bats against him if ownership projections suggest his name still carries weight. While he's struggling to get anyone out, a .400+ wOBA against RHBs this season has pushed his actual wOBA to .330 against same-handed batters since last season. Every batter in this lineup (every single one) has exceeded a 100 wRC+ and .160 ISO vs RHP since last season. Remove Evan Gattis and Alex Bregman and the remaining seven are all above a 105 wRC+ and .180 ISO. Aside from the big three (Springer, Altuve, Correa), nobody else is priced above $4K on either site.

Mike Leake has allowed three HRs with a 52 Hard% against RHBs this year

Mike Leake has allowed seven earned runs in 18 innings, but he's allowed three HRs and walked more batters (nine) than he's struck out (eight) and has just a 5.9 SwStr%. That's low, even for him. His ground ball rate would be a career low 41.7% and his hard hit rate a career high 45%. In other words, it's all smoke and mirrors (.211 BABIP, 85.9 LOB%). His 93.3 mph aEV is highest on the board and only Robbie Ray exceeds his 53.3% 95+ mph EV. All three HRs have been surrendered to RHBs, who have a 52 Hard% and 36 GB%, which spells double danger against the Astros. With a mediocre 4.3 implied run line and Leake's reputation as a ground baller against a predominantly same-handed lineup, perhaps Houston bats will go under-owned tonight. They shouldn't be. Strongly consider paying up for the big three (George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) if possible as all have exceeded a 120 wRC+ and .180 ISO against same handed pitching since last year. Consider complimenting with a more affordable Josh Reddick (136 wRC+, .193 ISO) or even cheaper Marwin Gonzalez (146 wRC+, .221 ISO), though the latter has an xwOBA 44 points below his actual against right-handers since last season. This lineup is not yet confirmed.

Ariel Miranda allowed 32 HRs to RHBs last season

The Astros can sometimes be a bit protective with their lineup, as it hasn't been confirmed for their matchup in Seattle tonight. The Mariners probably wish Ariel Miranda were as protective with the baseball. Although RHBs had a fairly reasonable .331 wOBA and 32.5 Hard%, just a 28.7 GB% led to 32 Home Runs last season. Perhaps an all out stack is not as ideal as homer hunting here, although the Astros (4.6) are one of just a handful of teams with an implied run line above 4.5 runs tonight. While George Springer (180 wRC+, .296 ISO vs LHP since last season), Jose Altuve (156 wRC+, .196 ISO), Carlos Correa (186 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Alex Bregman (146 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the obvious culprits, Evan Gattis (80 wRC+, .181 ISO) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. Marwin Gonzalez (104 wRC+, .194 ISO) costs $3K or less on either site if players want cheaper exposure. He has an ugly -14 wRC+ and 13.3 Hard% over the last week though. Springer has four HRs in 19 PAs against Miranda according to DailyBaseballData.com

Reverse split, fly ball Jake Odorizzi faces the mighty Astros in a park that's RHB power friendly

Jake Odorizzi has a fly ball pitcher with a reverse platoon split and this is exactly the kind of matchup that could be a nightmare for him in Minnesota, a power friendly park for right-handed hitters. The Astros boast some of the best hitters in baseball against same-handed hitters at the top of their order in George Springer (126 wRC+, .225 ISO since last year), Jose Atuve (157 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Carlos Correa (142 wRC+, .242 ISO) with Alex Bregman (107 wRC+, .164 ISO) pulling up the slack. The bad news is that you'll have to pay up for the big three. Against Odorizzi, RHBs have a .318 wOBA, but .333 xwOBA and 39.8 Hard% since last season. The only thing in his favor here may be continued cold weather, which may keep the ball from carrying as far as it normally would.

Carlos Correa (146 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) in lineup after leaving last night's game with an injury

Carlos Correa (146 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since last season) is back in the lineup after leaving with an injury last night. In fact, the Astros employ the exact same lineup they used to assault Chris Tillman last night and it should be much the same result against Mike Wright, who has some similarly horrible contact rates last season via Statcast (88.8 mph aEV, 8.5% Barrels/BBE, 39.4% 95+ mph EV) in 25 innings, all out of the bullpen. While LHBs have a career .402 wOBA against him, RHBs have hit him well too (.335 wOBA) with batters from either side hitting 13 HRs with a ground ball rate around 40%. Every bat in this lineup is a viable choice, with at least a 107 wRC+ and .170 ISO against RHP since the start of last season. The only exception is Derek Fisher (86 wRC+), who has a 46.8 Hard% against RHP since last year. The top six, aside from Alex Bregman (108 wRC+, .172 ISO) all boast a 130+ wRC+ and .180+ ISO against RHP. The chalk paid off last night and Houston is again likely to meet their 5.14 implied run line.

Chris Tillman had a board worst .398 xwOBA, 89.6 mph aEV and 40.2% 95+ mph EV last season

The Houston Astros own a board leading 5.66 implied run line tonight with only one other offense (Toronto) even above five runs. Inexpensive pitching should allow players to stack Astros with impunity (though it may be a bit more difficult on DraftKings). While it's possible injury can be to blame for some of Chris Tillman's struggles last year, he is worst on the board in several key Statcast metrics, including xwOBA (.398) aEV (89.6 mph), and 95+ mph EV (40.2%) and no other pitcher is even close to him in any of those metrics. Further, he's also worst on the board in terms of Z-O-Swing rate (48.9%) a measure that shows us that batters were able to lay off pitches out of the zone and punish strikes against him last season. Jose Altuve (161), Marwin Gonzalez (151), Carlos Correa (146), George Springer (130) and Josh Reddick (130) all have punished RHP to the tune of a 130 wRC+ or better since last season. All have an ISO above .180 against them as well (Reddick the only one below .200). Few players may realize that Houston has been one of the most negative run scoring environments in recent years because the Astros have been so good offensively. They owned a 121 wRC+ at home and 122 wRC+ vs RHP last season, both easily best in the majors.

Houston bats grab top overall spots and top value positions on RotoGrinders Player Projections page

Three of the top four overall projected bats on the RotoGrinders Player Projections page reside in Houston tonight. Despite Andrew Cashner's extreme splits (LHBs .375 wOBA, 37.5 Hard%/RHBs .321 wOBA, 28.2 Hard%), all three bat from the right side (Altuve, Springer, Correa). All three are also above average hitters against RHP. Springer and Correa also double as potential top values on FanDuel with each projected for more than 3.5 Pt/$/K at $3.5K or less. Rickie Weeks (152 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since last year) also projects as a top two value on either site, facing Wei-Yin Chen (RHBs .342 wOBA, 32.7 Hard% since 2015) in Miami. Players not paying up for Kershaw tonight can also consider Luis Severino as potentially the top pitching value on FanDuel. Our projections have him potentially being worth 4.6 Pt/$/K, nearly a full quarter of a point per thousand fantasy dollars higher than any other pitcher.

Dillon Overtun has more HRs allowed (five) than strikeouts (four) in 46 major league batters faced

Dillon Overtun has allowed more HRs (five) than he has strikeouts (four) through his first 46 major league batters. He only has 160 minor league innings with average peripherals in the minors above single A the last two seasons. Of his 37 batted balls in the majors this year, only eight have been on the ground and 40.5% have been hard hit. This reinforces why the Astros would be projected for more than four and half runs in tough park in Oakland. The top four are a great stack tonight that may not be highly owned with many highly projected offenses on the slate in better parks. Altuve (171 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Springer (152 wRC+, .283 ISO) have both pounded LHP this season, while Marwin Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Carlos Correa (113 wRC+, .199 ISO vs LHP career) both cost less than $4K on either site.