Carlos Martinez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If dropping down to the middle of the board, Alex Wood may be one of the more interesting options for less than $9K tonight. While still not throwing 100 pitches per starts, he's been above 90 in three of his last four League average strikeout (22.3%) and ground ball rates (45.6%)…well, league average almost everything (87.7 mph aEV, .305 xwOBA) makes him essentially a league average pitcher, who gets a park boost from one of the most negative run environments in baseball against an offense that's average at best, which makes it a decent spot with a decent floor most likely. Nathan Eovaldi costs just $6.3K on FanDuel. He's run through a tough schedule since returning (Nationals twice, Astros, Yankees, Mariners), but gets a break in Miami tonight (84 wRC+, 9.0 HR/FB at home, 87 wRC+, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP) . He’s completed six innings in four of his starts and three straight. Luis Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight starts in which he’s completed six innings just once. He’s allowed 18 HRs in 17 starts, but still has a 13.7 SwStr% and is facing the White Sox (18.5 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.1 K-BB% over the last seven days) for $5.7K on DraftKings. Carlos Martinez has walked a total of three over his last two starts and struck out eight lat time out. His strikeout rate is not much above average and there's always a chance he could walk the park, but costs $8.1K or less in Arizona (81 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP with just a 90 wRC+ and 12.5 HR/FB in humidor land this year). Wei-Yin Chen costs just $4.6K on DK in an extremely negative run environment and decent contact management (4.8% Barrels/BBE) against the Rays. A really sneak SP2 could be Anibal Sanchez (23.2 K%, .300 xwOBA, 84.5 mph aEV), who's cutter is being thrown 17% of the time towards solid results (.229 xwOBA) and seems to have abolished the terrible reverse split that's plagued him for several seasons now (.263 wOBA, two HRs this year). Ownership may be non-existent in an incredibly high risk spot against the Yankees.

Since returning from the DL, Carlos Martinez has a 22 BB%. LHBs have a 17.5 BB% against him this season. The Tribe will attack with seven from that side of the plate tonight and 4.58 implied run line that's in the upper middle range on the board could have players off of this potent lineup due to Martinez's name value and the negative run environment. If players can get some of these potent lefty bats at under 5% ownership (Ownership projections available in LIneupHQ for premium players), they may be worth paying up for in an interesting spot. Francisco Lindor (125 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .204 ISO), and Jose Ramirez (161 wRC+, .313 ISO) may be complemented with a more affordable Yonder Alonso (124 wRC+, .195 ISO), who has a 201 wRC+ and 75 Hard% over the last week.

The Brewers have a 4.46 implied run line at home against the Cardinals that's second best on the board tonight. That may seem a bit high against Carlos Martinez, but in three starts since returning from the DL, he's allowed 10 runs in 12.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and just one HR, but 18 walks through just 68 batters. A full stack, prioritizing left-handed batters would be the best way to approach this, gaining exposure to all of the walks and potential runs. The Brewers will fly with just three right-handed batters among position players tonight, only Lorenzo Cain (101 wRC+, .094 ISO) in the top half of the lineup. Eric Thames (131 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (136 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Travis Shaw (131 wRC+, .274 ISO) should be the most profitable bats here against pitcher who has allowed a .324 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) with a 35 Hard% and 12.5% walk rate to LHBs since the start of last season.

Five pitchers reach the $10K mark on at least one site with only two above that mark on both and Patrick Corbin missing by just $100 on DraftKings. Their opponents make up six of the 11 teams at or below 3.75 implied runs tonight. Two of them can probably be fairly easily omitted, fresh off the DL. Neither Carlos Martinez nor Madison Bumgarner have faced many minor league batters in rehab starts, which would suggest abbreviated outings tonight. The shame of that is that Martinez is facing the Marlins and could be useful if there was significant confidence in even six innings. The top of the board consists of Max Scherzer vs the Rays (18.2 K-BB% last seven days) and Corey Kluber vs the Brewers (24.3 K% vs RHP). The former had a massive bounce back game (8 IP - 2 H - 12 K) after being roughed up by the Marlins and is almost always a great choice. The latter has gone at least six innings in every start and has struck out 27 of his last 73 batters without a single walk. James Paxton was unimpressive in Texas (5 IP - 4 BB - 5 K) and has a tough matchup in Houston (115 wRC+ vs LHP), but he costs less than $10.5K in the most negative run environment on the board. In four of his previous five starts, he’d gone at least seven innings, two of them complete games and double digit strikeouts in the other two. Corbin allowed six HRs, including two HRs against the Reds last time out, but did reach double digit strikeouts for the first time in over a month. He’s had at least seven Ks in all but two starts this year. The Giants are predominantly right-handed, but do have a 23.8 K% vs LHP. He’s struck out 17 of them in 14.1 innings in two April starts, but they are the hottest offense on the board (18.4 HR/FB last seven days).

Carlos Martinez has gone at least six innings in every start since his first of the season with double digit strikeouts twice. He won't always pile up the Ks and his 9.0 SwStr% is a bit frustrating, but he still keeps the ball on the ground (57.8%). He continues to struggle with the strike zone against left-handed hitters (career double digit walk rate), but the White Sox don't have a lot of guys who can hurt him from that side. Only Yoan Moncado (128 wRC+, .383 xwOBA, .252 ISO vs RHP) is above a .325 xwOBA among today's lefties for Chicago. Martinez is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate and certainly isn't the safest, but he has the upside to push lineups over the top.