Carson Kelly Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Carson Kelly (ribs) scratched, Jake Rogers will start Friday.

Players are very likely paying up for pitching tonight, so it’s good news that projections for both sites suggest there’s a bit of value to be found in one of the top offense tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies have the third highest implied run line on tonight’s board (4.77) against Justin Steele. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .300 wOBA against him this year, but Statcast widens that gap to a .256 xwOBA for LHBs and a .320 xwOBA for RHBs. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins are two of the top projected bats on the board tonight, but neither is cheap, especially on DraftKings. However, Matt Vierling (112 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP this year) costs less than $2.5K on either site, while Yairo Munoz (150 wRC+, .278 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings. An even more attractive stacking option may be Nick Castellanos, who costs $2.5K on FanDuel, though his power has disappeared against southpaws this year (103 wRC+, .095 ISO) and this is confirmed by an xwOBA that’s only a single point higher than his .319 wOBA with the platoon advantage in 2022.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 4.73 team run total that’s just behind the Phillies and fourth on a 26 team board, but PlateIQ projections suggest there’s a ton of value to be found in this lineup. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. In fact, for less than $6K, Corbin may be a GPP worthy play on DraftKings, but his 5.84 xERA nearly matches the actual results this season and RHBs still have a .374 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) against him this year. For $2.2K or less on FanDuel, Carson Kelly (85 wRC+, .190 ISO), Jordan Luplow (138 wRC+, .371 ISO) and Jake McCarthy (137 wRC+, .179 ISO) are the top three projected values on the board, joined as a top 10 projected value by Ketel Marte (145 wRC+, .183 ISO), who is also a top 10 projected bat overall at $3K. McCarthy and Luplow are also top five projected DraftKings values for less than $3K.

On FanDuel, Rowdy Tellez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat and value against Antonio Senzatela (LHBs .385 wOBA, .368 xwOBA this year), while Jace Peterson (111 wRC+, .193 ISO) is also a top 10 projected value for $2.3K, making Milwaukee stacks a bit easier tonight. They have the second highest implied run line on the board at 4.85.

Caleb Smith has a 27.8 K% and 4.13 ERA that matches his 4.19 DRA and .316 xwOBA. All pretty decent stuff. However, an extreme fly ball pitcher (27.4%), his 10.9% Barrels/BBE can get hidden a bit in Miami, especially with all the strikeouts. Over the last month though, the strikeout rate is down to 23.4%, as Smith has allowed eight HRs over five starts. Nineteen of his 29 HRs have come on the road this season and that’s where he pitches tonight, in Arizona, against an offense with a 116 wRC+ and 18.2 HR/FB vs LHP. The Arizona lineup has already been posted and features five batters above a 125 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs LHP this year: Ketel Marte (147 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .273 ISO), Wilmer Flores (160 wRC+, .309 ISO), Nick Ahmed (143 wRC+, 256 ISO) and Carson Kelly (187 wRC+, .325 ISO). All are above a .340 xwOBA against LHP this year as well. While the Diamondbacks are implied for a healthy 5.1 runs, that’s still just a middle of the board mark tonight and bottom of the order bats here would seem a very contrarian way to go in GPPs.

The game in New York tonight will feature two southpaws against two offenses who have done a lot of damage to LHPs this year. Both Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have been above average pitchers with an ERA right around four, but both are also among the bottom three on the board in terms of Barrels/BBE.

Over his last four starts, Ray has walked 16.7% of batters and while his strikeout rate has remained consistent at 30.6%, it does so with a drop in SwStr to 11% over that span. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second worst on the board. Ray has also been merely average vs RHBs this year (.328 wOBA, .325 xwOBA). The projected lineup for the Mets features five RHBs above a 125 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this year: Amed Rosario (131 wRC+, .213 ISO), Pete Alonso (151 wRC+, .366 ISO), J.D. Davis (131 wRC+, .205 ISO), Wilson Ramos (159 wRC+, .196 ISO) and Todd Frazier (128 wRC+, .231 ISO). More interestingly, Alonso is the only one above $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel.

Steven Matz has been quite a bit better recently and perhaps doesn’t deserve to be attacked that hard. He has a 2.17 ERA and .258 xwOBA over the last month, though a SIERA two runs higher over that span and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE on the year. The projected lineup for the Diamondbacks does not contain a single left-handed bat and while Matz has allowed just a .314 wOBA to RHBs with a supporting .312 xwOBA, 18 of his 23 HRs have been surrendered to batters from that side. The Arizona projected lineup features five batters above a 140 wRC+ and .250 ISO against southpaws this season: Ketel Marte (146 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .277 ISO), Wilmer Flores (147 wRC+, .315 ISO), Nick Ahmed (144 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Carson Kelly (193 wRC+, .333 ISO). Weather and umpire may also lean towards boosting offense in a normally very negative run environment, as premium subscribers can confirm. With both teams implied for just 4.25 runs tonight, this could be a sneaky spot for offense.