CC Sabathia Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

This is a great spot for the A’s, who have punished LHP all year (114 wRC+, 18.8 K%, 17.4 HR/FB) under generally tougher conditions. Not only will they benefit from a large park upgrade on Friday night, but C.C. Sabathia has struggled to stay healthy this season and has generally not been very good when he’s been able to take the mound. No single estimator suggests his 4.99 ERA should be much better and while he’s not allowing a ton of hard contact (31.4% 95+ mph EV), he’s certainly allowing more of it in the air (39.1 GB%, 8.6% Barrels/BBE). The A’s may be missing a bat or two, but the ones they have from the right-hand side remain quite potent. Matt Chapman (135 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is your top overall Oakland bat with Mark Canha (125 wRC+, .265 ISO) not far behind and sporting a 252 wRC+ over the last week. Marcus Semien (114 wRC+, .182 ISO) should be included in stacks. Chad Pinder (106 wRC+, .211 ISO) would be the value play (within $400 of $3K on either site), should he find himself in a reasonable lineup position. A 5.13 implied run line places the A’s just outside the top 10 on the board tonight with reason to believe they may be under-valued here.

C.C. Sabathia is still a quality contact manager (86.5 mph aEV, 30.5% 95+ mph EV) with more strikeouts (22.3%), but a high rate of Barrels (8.4% per BBE) for some reason. The Twins have the top split wRC+ today (123 vs LHP), are tied for the top R/L HR split (18.4 HR/FB) and just a 1.7 team K-BB% over the last week. There is some indication on Weather Edge (premium subscription required) that conditions may boost offense in this game, a very meaningful tidbit with more than half (six of 11) of tonight’s game’s being played in dome capable stadiums and no environment on the board clearly a more positive run environment than Minnesota tonight. This is a game where players should be looking for offense on either side. The Yankees and Twins are essentially tied with Washington for a board high 5.8 implied runs. The Minnesota projected lineup includes five batters exceeding a 135 wRC+ and .230 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. This list includes Mitch Garver (180 wRC+, .344 ISO), Nelson Cruz (139 wRC+, .285 ISO), C.J. Cron (176 wRC+, .310 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (138 wRC+, .234 ISO), and Miguel Sano (141 wRC+, .341 ISO). While Sabathia has a .329 wOBA vs LHP over the last calendar year, xwOBA drops that to .307, but still a strong spot for high upside Minnesota right-handed bats.

C.C. Sabathia has a 24.7 K% and 13 SwStr% over the last month, great for his daily fantasy prospects, but just snapped a string of four straight starts with at least three runs allowed in his last start. His 15 HRs in 63 innings is already just four fewer than his total last year in 90 more innings. Everyone’s HR rate is going up this year, but his 19.2 HR/FB is nearly double his career rate (10.5) and coincides with the lowest ground ball rate of his career (39.5%) and his highest hard hit rate (43.9%) since 2013. In fact, it’s the first time he’s been above even 30% since that year. Interestingly, that hard contact is not showing up in his line drive rate (18.4%) and he still has a low 86.8 mph aEV (second best on the board), but a high rate of Barrels/BBE (8.6%). So he’s still generating a lot of weak contact, but also lots of hard hit fly balls. While his league average 4.14 ERA coincides with a league average .317 xwOBA, the bad news is that his 81.8 LOB% would be a career high too. His 4.78 SIERA, 5.65 FIP and 7.10 DRA tell a dangerous story. While the Blue Jays have an 84 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% and 12.3 HR/FB vs LHP, those numbers are a bit deceiving. There is some right-handed power in that lineup right now, including Lourdes Gurriel (180 wRC+, .313 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Randal Grichuk (138 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (85 wRC+, .202 ISO). That’s not even counting Vladmir Guerrero Jr. (83 wRC+, .163 ISO), who hasn’t even hit LHP yet. At 3.89 implied runs, the Jays are fifth from the bottom of the board tonight. This Toronto lineup likely offers a chance to grab some high upside contrarian bats in a strong spot tonight.

C.C. Sabathia is still managing contact fairly well by exit velocity (85.5 mph average), but has allowed exactly one barrel per every 10 batted balls this season and eight HRs over his last four starts. Combine his 20 HR/FB this year with just an 8.0 K-BB% and things aren’t looking too good for C.C. in his final season. Each of his non-FIP estimators (SIERA, xFIP, DRA) are all at least two runs above his 3.26 ERA, as he simply won’t be able to sustain a magical .183 BABIP, though he is inducing a lot of popups (37.5 GB%, 12.5 IFFB%) to go with those HRs. RHBs now have a .331 wOBA against Sabathia over the last calendar year and it certainly doesn’t hurt that conditions appear to be favorable for hitters at Yankee Stadium tonight. It’s also unlikely too many players will be paying much attention to Tampa Bay bats, stuck on the middle of the board at 4.59 implied runs. This is a nice spot for Yandy Diaz (143 wRC+, .224 ISO, 47.8 Hard% vs RHP last calendar year), who has been blistering the baseball recently (154 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days). Both Tommy Pham (128 wRC+, .123 ISO, 51.7 Hard%) and Avisail Garcia (115 wRC+, .214 ISO, 55.6 Hard%) have made hard contact on more than half of batted balls against southpaws over the last 12 months as well.

C.C. Sabathia has quietly been a solid option the past few years, posting a sub 4 ERA, a 7.2 K/9 or higher and 148+ innings in each of his last 3 seasons. Despite the consistently decent production, his price across the industry feels too cheap, especially considering his matchup with the Royals who have just a 3.64 implied total tonight. The Royals have just a 78 wRC+ against LHP on the year and the 12th highest groundball rate at 43.2%. They’ll have just one hitter in their lineup (Whit Merrifield) who had an xwOBA above .320 vs. LHP last year (min. 100 PA). Sabathia will also have a pitcher friendly umpire in Marty Foster. There is a chance the start of this game gets delayed, so be sure to check back before lock.

Soft tossing (or at least below average velocity) lefties could be a theme on this daily fantasy slate with only six pitchers above a league average strikeout rate. Dallas Keuchel gone at least seven innings in five of his last nine starts, has the third best ground ball rate on the board (53.8%) and the seventh best xwOBA (.309). Most importantly, the Angels are absent their two legitimate right-handed bats. The drawback is his lowered strikeout rate this year (17.5%) and also that of the Angels vs LHP (20.8%). Rich HIll has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (though with just a 9.1 SwStr%) and is actually closer to the bottom of the board than the top with a .343 xwOBA, but it’s been better over the last month (.303) and he’s in a great matchup (Padres 24 K% vs LHP) in a great park. C.C. Sabathia has struck out 19 of his last 47 batters. His .305 xwOBA is sixth best on the board and he has the lowest aEV (84.9 mph). He’s missed two weeks with a knee issue and the Orioles are a predominantly right-handed lineup (.313 wOBA, 13 HRs vs Sabathia this season). That’s not a particularly good right-handed lineup and batters from that side have been just league average against him, but the O’s have just a 21.9 K% vs LHP, despite a 75 wRC+. Andrew Heaney's ERA is up over the last month and he's in a tough spot against the Astros. However, it's in a negative run environment and his estimators have remained on pace with his season rates below four, while his 22.8 K% is sixth best on the board. Jason Vargas has a career high 10.5 SwStr% and just an 85.5 mph aEV. He's allowed just four runs over 11.1 innings in his last two starts and the Nationals are a deep and balanced, but under-performing offense for the entire season now. Gio Gonzalez has been terrible (2.4 K-BB% last 13 starts), but so are the Mets at home (80 wRC+, 8.6 HR/FB) and vs LHP (79 wRC+, 25.5 K%). A couple of RHPs might even be more interesting tonight. Joe Musgrove has gone at least seven innings in eight of his 14 starts. He has set down 13 of his last 53 batters on strikes and has a ground ball rate above 50% in four of his last five starts. His 86.6 mph aEV is sixth best on the board, which gives him the best xwOBA on the board at .291. The Brewers have a 16+ HR/FB at home and vs RHP, but also a 25+ K% at home and vs RHP. Zack Godley is facing a contact prone Seattle offense (20.2%), but his 11.9 SwStr% is highest on the board along with a 50.9 GB% and in an NL park, the Mariners are likely to be without one of their top bats, perhaps Nelson Cruz.