Chad Green Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Chad Green has a 26.4 K% with a 12.4 SwStr%. He has been a bit homer prone though with 11 in three starts, including three to this Baltimore offense last time out, but nine of his 11 HRs have come in just three starts (seven in just two), so there is some upside here if he can avoid the long ball, or even if he does allow a couple for just $5.6K on DraftKings. That wiggle room may be needed in a tough spot in Baltimore (17.5 HR/FB at home, 17.4 HR/FB vs RHP). LHBs do have a .421 wOBA and 37.9 Hard% against him. Chris Davis (142 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has plenty of value for $4.5K on DK ($1.1K less on FD) as does Pedro Alvarez (117 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) in the two spot for $3.8K or less. Davis hit two of the three HRs against Green in his last outing. We'd consider refraining from higher priced RHBs as Green has handled them well (.273 wOBA, three HRs).

Chad Green has a 36% strikeout rate over the last two weeks, holding a 2.41 xFIP over the last that same period. Green faces an Orioles team today that has been much like the Houston Astros of old, seemingly equally capable of striking out 10 times as they are of hitting 5 home runs. Over the last week, the Orioles have a team wRC+ of 85, and k% of 22%, making Chad Green a viable high risk, high reward pitcher today. The game is taking place in New York, but the Orioles have a dearth of left-handed swingers, with only Pedro Alvarez and Chris Davis acting as legitimate power threats from the left side of the plate. Chad Green has all the characteristics of a boom or bust pitcher today, holding hitters to a hard contact rate of 29% over the last two weeks, but surrendering a fly ball percentage of 44%. While the fly balls could very well get Green into trouble today, but his 2.50 xFIP at home is encouraging. Chad Green is a cheap option at pitcher that will allow DFS players to load up on offense.

Chad Green's stuff has been impressive enough a 12.2 SwStr% and 24.4 K%, though some of that's come out of the bullpen, but he doesn't seem to be able to put the ball where he wants it often enough with eight HRs allowed in his four starts, going more than 4.1 innings only once and walking 10 of his last 25 batters. That and a 36.3 Hard% make this a dangerous spot against an offense with a lot of power. The splits are a bit odd, but still small sample size as RHBs have just a .280 wOBA, but 38.5 Hard% and LHBs have a .469 wOBA with a 34.2 Hard%. The first three batters for Toronto are all RH and all have a wRC+ a bit above 140 and an ISO above .220 vs RHP this year. The two thumpers (Donaldson & Encarnacion) raise the ISO above .280, but Travis might be the bargain here for $3.4K on FanDuel. Three of the next four (excluding Ceciliani) are all at least average bats with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season. The Blue Jays are projected for a high 4.8 run total tonight where their power could play a major role.

We have very little data to work with on Chad Green, but he's struggled against lefties so far this season (5 HRs allowed in 11 IP) with a 43.8 hard%. This sets up nicely for several of the Mets left-handed bats, who will receive a big park boost with the series shifting over to Yankee Stadium. Jay Bruce is the top target here with a .373 wOBA, .313 ISO and 39.3 hard% against RHP, and those numbers take a slight uptick when he's facing RHP on the road. As far as GPP plays go in the outfield, Bruce is near the top of the list given his power upside and the fact that he likely won't be a popular play. Next up is Curtis Granderson, who has been cold of late but still produces very well against RHP and will have a little of the revenge factor working in his favor. Granderson had a few of his best seasons with the Yankees and his .210 ISO against RHP should play very well in this park. Neil Walker is also a solid mid-range target hitting second between Granderson and Yoenis Cespedes, who will make his return from an injury this evening. Cespedes is also a viable GPP play with his .367 wOBA, .258 ISO and 39.2 hard% against RHP.

Chad Green is an interesting case at a low price tonight. Cleveand is the best home offense in baseball (123 wRC+), but Green has a 28.3 K-BB% in just 11 innings against weak offenses. He also has a 19.9 K-BB% in 81.2 AAA innings this year. Players looking for a cheap secondary option with upside (which is likely most players tonight on DraftKings) could consider Green. However, just a few LHBs have hit him very hard so far (.486 wOBA, 53.9 Hard%). It's not nearly a large enough sample to base much on, but a strong offense at home projected for 4.5 runs can still be on players' radars, though this pitcher is still mostly an unknown. Tyler Naquin continues to bat low in the order at a low price, but continues to punish baseballs (163 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP). Carlos Santana (145 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP this season) joins him in RH punishment at the top of the order, while Jason Kipnis has a 140 wRC+ with a .185 ISO vs RHP since last season. In fact, Jose Ramirez has the lowest ISO vs RHP this season in the lineup at .143.

Chad Green is making his major league debut just a couple of weeks shy of his 25th birthday. He is a non-prospect, but has struck out 24.3% of batters, while walking 8.1% in 37 AAA innings this season and has progressed steadily through the minors since 2013. The Arizona lineup is a bit bare with Michael Bourn batting 2nd and no Peralta and you wouldn't need much for the cost of a bullpen arm ($4K on DK, $3K on FD), but this (like Yankee Stadium) is a tough run environment to make your first start in. Paul Goldschmidt is not having his usual season, but still has a 149 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP since last season. The value play in this lineup might be Jake Lamb at cleanup (106 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP since 2015) with a 47.6 Hard% over the last week. If you are thinking of going deeper to the 6th or 7th spot on a short slate, Brandon Drury (116 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP) for $3.1K or less and Chris Herrmann (159 wRC+, 66.7 Hard% over the last week) for $3.3K or less might at Catcher might be of interest. Arizona has the top run projection tonight (4.83), but that may be due to limited information on the debuting pitcher.