RotoGrinders Player Projections like inexpensive Boston bats on FanDuel tonight
The top seven overall bats according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections come from seven different teams tonight with the Blue Jays the first team to show up with a pair (Jose Bautista & Justin Smoak). Cody Bellinger (153 wRC+, .398 ISO vs RHP) was shut down last night, but owns the top projected bat in another solid matchup at home against Jesse Chavez (LHBs .327 wOBA since last season). Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2015) grabs the second spot in the lineup with the top implied run line against Hector Santiago (RHBs 37.5 Hard% since last year). Charlie Blackmon (135 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top three with a massive park downgrade in San Francisco, but Matt Cain (LHBs .380 wOBA since last year) can make any park feel like Coors. Top projected values on FanDuel are among the cheaper Boston bats in Chris Young (4.47 Pt/$/K) and Sam Travis (3.86 Pt/$/K), both for just $2.3K. The former has failed to do much against LHP this year (71 wRC+, .047 ISO), while the latter does not yet have even 30 PAs against them at the major league level. Among those projected for at least seven points on DraftKings, Carlos Santana may be the top value for just $3.2K against Tyson Ross. He has a 107 wRC+ and .189 ISO vs RHP this year, but drops down to seventh in the Cleveland lineup tonight.
Charlie Blackmon homers in loss to D'Backs
Blackmon went yard in Colorados first at-bat of the afternoon, taking right-hander Zack Godley deep for his 16th homer of the year. He added to his tally with an RBI single in the eighth inning. Blackmon isnt stealing bases like he did a few years ago, but its tough to complain when hes hitting a ridiculous .328 with 56 RBI. The 30-year-old has been especially dominant at Coors Field, batting .390 at the Rockies home park.
Yankees and Coors bats project to be most popular tonight
Yankees (Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez) and Rockies (Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon) are expected to be most popular on DraftKings tonight with only Gary Sanchez reaching 20% currently. Brian Dozier projects similarly on FanDuel with Gary Sanchez following and then a trail of Coors bats. While this covers the two teams with the highest implied run lines tonight and the only ones above six, there are eight more teams Vegas likes to score five runs or more tonight and plenty of options offensively. Dodger bats have pounded Mets pitching for two straight days and face spot starter Tyler Pill tonight with only Cody Bellinger projected to be in more than 10% of lineups on either site. Cardinal bats with an implied run line of five are expected to be even more lightly owned in Philadelphia against Nick Pivetta. On the mound, Jose Berrios is expected to be most popular, but the cost is high and his estimators are a run above his ERA. Jeff Samardzija has a 3.81 ERA and 29 K% outside of Coors this year and is expected to be owned in no more than 10% of lineups tonight, if weather cooperates. Ownership projections for all players are updated until first pitch and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
Four of the top five projected batters play at Coors tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections like Coors bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and Nolan Arenado all among the top five overall point projections along with Aaron Judge at home against Ricky Nolasco. Colorado and the Yankees are the two offenses with implied run lines above six tonight with Arizona a bit lower a 5.44 currently. The pitching at Coors does have the talent to foil plans. Jeff Hoffman has a 28.4 K% and 2.25 ERA with an 11.3 SwStr% and 3.37 SIERA that are only slightly less optimistic. Taijuan Walker had a strong April before a poor May led to a DL stint. He bounced back with a strong start last time out and is a talented pitcher when healthy. Among players projected for at least seven DK points, Wilmer Flores (vs Rich Hill) and Miguel Sano (vs David Holmberg) project as top values (both at 2.54 Pt/$/K). Sano costs just $3.9K! Projections for FanDuel like Robbie Grossman (3.74 Pt/$/K) from the same lineup and Jedd Gyorko (3.69 Pt/$/K) as top values.
Pair of Diamondbacks project best overall, but Blue Jay duo may hold most value tonight
The RotoGrinders Player Projections project both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb for better than 15 points on FanDuel tonight with David Peralta joining them among the top five overall bats tonight with Charlie Blackmon and Aaron Judge in between. Colorado is the only other team with at least two players showing up in the top 10 as Nolan Arrenado makes it four Coors bats in total tonight. None of the top 10 should be a surprise. All are big names in nice spots tonight. Kevin Pillar projects for the most value (3.97 Pt/$/K) on FanDuel, likely to lead off in Texas against Nick Martinez for $2.6K. Among batters projected for at least seven DK points, Toronto teammate Jose Bautista may be the top value (2.46 Pt/$/K) for just under $4K. Players who really don't mind punting an outfielder in the leadoff spot should note that Adam Engel projects for 2.8 Pt/$/K for just $2.1K against Ervin Santana.
Charlie Blackmon absent from Rockies lineup
It's just a routine day off for the dynamic outfielder, but comes as a major disappointment for those who wanted to exploit a pristine matchup against Matt Cain at Coors Field on Saturday afternoon. Raimel Tapia is starting in his place in center field and batting leadoff for the Rockies.
RotoGrinders Player Projections see three Coors bats among top five tonight
Three of the top five projected point accumulators are at Coors according to tonight's RotoGrinders Player Projections (Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Belt, Nolan Arenado) rounded out by Mookie Betts against reverse platoon pitcher Mike Fiers and Aaron Judge facing the left-handed Sean Manaea in Oakland. Belt also doubles as a top value on Fanduel (3.79 Pt/$/K) with only Chase Utley projecting slightly better (3.8 Pt/$/K). The projections like min-priced Ryan Raburn (3.09 Pt/$/K) in the two slot tonight as the only player above three points per thousand. Among batters projected for at least eight DK points, Kyle Seager is at 2.35 Pt/$/K for a Seattle lineup facing Tyson Ross in his first major league start this year. In four rehab starts, he walked as many as he struck out and capped it off by allowing three HRs in his last one.
PlateIQ suggests Ian Desmond could be one of the better Colorado matchups against Matt Moore
The Rockies are have an implied run line an entire run higher than any other team tonight. Players are going to attempt to cram their lineups full of as many Colorado bats that will fit along with their pitching choices. Matt Moore has allowed LHBs a slightly higher wOBA (.320 - .315) over his career, though a lot higher this year (.481 - .319), so perhaps Charlie Blackmon (116 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is as ideal as Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP since 2016) tonight, but we can use PitchIQ to see which batters match up the best. Moore likes to go with a fastball/curveball/cutter combo against LHBs and use his changeup as often as the latter two pitches against RHBs this year. Isolating Blackmon, the pitcher is hottest lower middle and outer middle, the latter being a hot spot for Blackmon, but lower middle (9% for Moore) coincides with one of his worst zones (3.4% hit rate). Further, Blackmon has struggled against the cutter, while being no better than average against fastballs and curves. Moore most often goes outside (8.8%), but also often middle and down and in. While Arenado handles those secondary locations well, the outer middle is one of his coldest zones this year (3.7% hit rate). He has also struggles against the change-up. Mark Reyonlds has a 0% hit rate on the outer part that Moore likes to work in. Ian Desmond actually appears to be the bat that might match up the strongest. He's handled both that part of the plate and Moore's secondary zones well and though he's struggled with the changeup, has handled curveballs and cutters well. The Rockies should still fare well at home against a poor pitcher, but individual matchups may not be ideal and a lot of their RHBs struggle against changeups, perhaps why they have just a 90 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% against LHP this year with so many RH bats.
It's going to be difficult to fit Coors bats against Matt Moore in lineups with Chris Sale
Rockies bats are the clear chalk tonight in a lineup implied for 6.12 runs against Matt Moore at Coors. The question is how are you going to fit all those bats in with Chris Sale? Four teams (Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants) all have run lines between 4.8 and 5.2. Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is probably the bat most players will work around fitting in, but RHBs only have a .312 wOBA and 32.2 Hard% against Moore, while LHBs have a .346 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% since last season, which means Charlie Blackmon (116 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2016) might be the bat worth saving for. Players can do that in a couple of ways, if they are willing to drop down to a Matt Carpenter ($3.4K DK) or Miguel Cabrera ($3.4K FD) at First Base and then get creative maybe with a team like the Mets who may have Juan Lagares (120 wRC+, 31.3 Hard% last seven days) and Wilmer Flores (177 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2016) at the top against Gio Gonzalez. Neither has a cost above $3K on either site. Punting at a potentially weaker position like Catcher may be a necessity as well.
Despite high implied run lines and lack of top end pitching, no clear offensive favorites tonight
Eleven of 22 teams have an implied run line of 4.7 or higher on the night slate with Minnesota (5.57) leading the pack, which should suggest some diverse offensive ownership tonight. While it appears a hitter's slate due to a lack of high end pitching, consider that aside from Cleveland, most games are taking place in near neutral or negative run environments tonight. That doesn't mean runs won't be scored tonight, just that there's not one clear spot in which to look. To add to the situation in Cleveland, aside from being the most positive run environment on the slate, our new Umpire Analysis article suggests that Corey Kluber and Brandon McCarthy could be dealing with the most hitter friendly umpire on the slate. The easy targets tonight are LHBs against Chad Kuhl (.396 wOBA, 37.9 Hard% since 2016) and Andrew Cashner (.360 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%), though neither the Rockies nor Astros have many lefties, so perhaps a Houston stack with Charlie Blackmon pays off tonight. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista may make an under-owned combination with favorable numbers against reverse platoon Jake Odorizzi (RHBs .337 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% since 2016), who is an extreme fly ball pitcher and one of the few arms experiencing a park downgrade tonight.