Chris Carter Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Strengthening Lance McCullers' case against the New York Yankees, aside from the top ground ball rate and a top seven K-BB% among qualified pitchers, the Yankees have just an 82 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers (fourth worst in baseball). Aaron Judge (198 sOPS+) is the only healthy batter with more than 25 PAs that exceeds a 105 sOPS+ against ground ball hitters and then Chris Carter (105) is the only other above average bat. On the other end of the spectrum, the Nationals (122 sOPS+) and Dodgers (118 sOPS+) are top four offenses against ground ball pitchers. Washington is a tough draw for Mike Leake, even without Trea Turner, but Austin Barnes (257 sOPS+), Justin Turner (196), Kike Hernandez (132) and Franklin Gutierrez (121) are all RH Dodger bats who can make life tough on Clayton Richard tonight. PlateIQ tells us that Clayton Richard likes to work low and away to RHBs, while Brooks Baseball tells us he favors the curve and change as secondary pitches against batters from that side. Several RH Dodger bats appear to handle the low and away pitch well, but while Kike Hernandez and Austin Barnes have had some success against the curveball, no Dodger RHBs have had great success with the change over the last two years.

Including the 41 RHH faced last season, that rate is 25.7%. Despite a fastball that averages 86.1 mph, a new release point - lower and farther left - has enabled Vargas to record a 12.5% SwStr% overall, which would be the highest of his career. Impressively, the Royals pitcher has posted a 1.01 ERA this season. He hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last 13 innings (two starts) and he’s pitched 6.0 or more innings in all but one of his seven starts this season, four of which were shutouts. However, he’s undoubtedly gotten a little lucky along the way; his .264 BABIP is .019 below his career average and he’s only allowed a 2.0% HR/FB rate so far. The latter metric has been aided by his ability to limit Hard% to 26.2%, but it’s bound to regress towards his career 8.7% rate. Additionally, he has a 3.65 SIERA; although that’s a solid number, it still presents a 2.64 gap from his ERA. Tonight, Vargas will face off against a Yankees team loaded with power righties with high strikeout rates. It’s a matchup that presents interesting tournament options in both directions. On one side, Vargas has a great ERA and high K% against righties and he has the pleasure of pitching to guys like Aaron Judge (35.4% K% vs. LHP), Gary Sanchez (29.2% K%), Matt Holliday (22.6% K%), and Chris Carter (32.0% K%). At the same time, when these guys have managed to make contact, they’ve been crushing lefties and Vargas has allowed a 43.6% FB% and 30.5% Hard% to RHH. Judge (52.4% FB%, 27.3% HR/FB, 42.6% Hard%, .289 ISO, 178 wRC+ vs. LHP this season), Sanchez (43.6% FB%, 35.3% HR/FB, 46.2% Hard%, .339 ISO, 123 wRC+ since 2016), Holliday (35.3% FB%, 50.0% HR/FB, .391 ISO, 224 wRC+ this season), and Carter (50.0% FB%, 12.5% HR/FB, 31.3% Hard%, .167 ISO, 38 wRC+ this season) will be a dangerous group for Vargas to get through, particularly in the HR/FB category. The question is whether they’ll be able to make contact with the ball in the first place. The other major concern for the Yankees is the ballpark as there are only 0.77 home runs per game to left field in Kauffman Stadium. Overall, Vargas seems to be in the better spot, but a pivot to a Yankees stack is an interesting high-ceiling play with Vargas due for some negative regression. Another thing working in New York's favor is Vargas' K/9 has slipped to 5.21 over his past three starts, which is 2.65 below his season average.

New York has scored the second-most runs in baseball this season (180) but they're facing Keuchel and his 1.88 ERA tonight. With Michael Pineda on the hill for the Yanks, Vegas has this game pegged as a pitcher's duel. This one has an over/under of 7 runs and projected scores of 3.67 for New York and 3.33 for Houston, the two lowest on the board. However, the Bronx Bombers are stocked with high-powered righty bats that have been crushing left-handers. Gary Sanchez (.365 wOBA, .357 ISO, 46.0% hard contact), Matt Holliday (.371 wOBA, .299 ISO, 45.1% hard contact), Aaron Judge (.403 wOBA, .314 ISO, 47.4% hard contact), and Chris Carter (.345 wOBA, .297 ISO, 37.4% hard contact) have some great numbers that stick out. Importantly, three of those guys have career flyball rates above 45% - Judge (57.9%), Sanchez (45.9%), and Carter (48.3%). Holliday is closer to average (36.7%), although he's posted a 42.9% rate this season. Having guys who can get the ball in the air is crucial in this spot considering Keuchel has an excellent 63.0% ground ball rate this year. Although Keuchel's ERA is 1.88, his SIERA is 3.37; that's still a solid number, but the difference could imply he's due for some regression. Additionally, his .211 BABIP against righties will eventually regress towards .300. The Yankees bats listed above will likely come with suppressed ownership given then matchup but make for some interesting GPP options at home, where 1.24 HRs are batted out to left field per game. Carter, who's only knocked one out of the park this season after clubbing 41 last year, is $1,500 cheaper on FanDuel ($2,100) than DraftKings ($3,600). Unfortunately, he's been dropped to ninth tonight, but his price on FD and splits against LHP keeps him interesting for those willing to take the risk in tournaments - our HR predictor projects him at 5.38%, which ranks 17th.

The RotoGrinders HR Predictor has been on target early this season and it has a bullseye on Giancarlo Stanton tonight. His 8.85% leads all players in a matchup against Ariel Miranda, who has already allowed three HRs to RHBs this season, after allowing 11 of his 12 to them last year as well. Stanton has a 178 wRC+ and .406 ISO vs LHP since 2015. Khris Davis (7.32%) is second most likely to homer. Although A.J. Griffin has been more competent against RHBs (.300 wOBA, 34.2 Hard% since last year), Davis has a .282 ISO vs RHP since 2015 and is facing a pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact in the air. Eric Thames (6.8%), Chris Carter (6.4%) and Marcell Ozuna (6.33%) are the other three players to exceed 6%. None of those names should come as a surprise.

Derek Holland has a 1.09 ERA through two starts, while Charlie Morton is at 4.09. By conventional standards, casual fans would be looking at Holland as the potentially improved pitcher, but underlying metrics might tell us something much different. Charlie Morton came out throwing harder in his first start and then picked up another mph in his second start, sitting at nearly 96 mph. As a consequence, he’s missing more bats than he traditionally has (10.6 SwStr%) at the sacrifice of his generally elite GB rate (55.3% career vs 44.1% this year), making him more DFS relevant, especially for just $6.5K. Holland, on the other hand, is not missing more bats (7.2 SwStr%) and has allowed a lot of hard contact (36.4 Hard%) in the air (33.3 GB%) and especially in the strike zone (96.2 Z-Contact%). He doesn't appear to be fooling anybody, but it seems batters are just missing their launch angle on him, resulting in a .147 BABIP thus far. Perhaps Aaron Judge (.211 wRC+, 72.7 Hard% over the last week) would be a good OF starting point tonight with consideration towards Chris Carter (.119 wRC+, .300 ISO vs LHP since 2016), Starlin Castro (91 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Matt Holliday (113 wRC+, .261 ISO) if he's back in the lineup as well. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and 35.9 Hard% vs Holland since 2015.

Two young left handers take the mound today when the Rays visit New York with Blake Snell starting for the visiting team and Jordan Montgomery making his major league debut for the Yankees. Snell has some K upside but is a bit too inconsistent to be considered a viable target. Montgomery, however, is intriguing as a value option facing a Rays team that strikes out often against LHP. That said it's also a good idea to have some shares of the Tampa offense as it is a rookie taking the mound. Steve Souza leads off and is a solid option as well as RH hitters like Evan Longoria, Rickie Weeks, and Derek Norris. From the Yankees lineup, Chris Carter and his .309 ISO against LHP is the top target as well as Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks (batting 2nd), and Aaron Judge.

Wade Miley is set to make his season debut this afternoon at Camden Yards against the New York Yankees, who have loaded their lineup with eight right-handed batters today in an effort to gain the platoon advantage as much as possible against Miley. This definitely seems to be a viable strategy, as Miley allowed a .360 wOBA to right-handed batters last season. Miley does not do any one thing particularly well, posting a below league average 19.3% strikeout rate and a 4.21 SIERA in 2016. Those numbers were combined with a less than stellar 33.3% hard contact rate, which is not a good combination. In other words, the Yankees are in a great position today to take advantage of a subpar southpaw that struggles consistently with right-handed batters. The Yankees are without Gary Sanchez this afternoon but still have several capable righty bats up and down their lineup, primarily Chris Carter (126 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .313 ISO vs LHP in 2016), Matt Holliday (.267 ISO vs LHP in 2016), and Aaron Judge, who all should be included in any Yankees stack given their immense power upside. With a lot of attention on the Cubs bats in Miller Park today, the Yankees could be an under the radar, high upside stack to differentiate a lineup in tournaments.

DFS players only have a couple of days left to target hitters at Coors Field. Tonight, the Brewers hitters will be the beneficiaries of visiting Colorado, where they will be facing a pitcher who has an xFIP over 4.90 against both LHBs and RHBs. The Brewers have a couple of hitters who have been really flexing their muscles over the last week, both possessing ISOs over 0.330. Chris Carter and Jonathan Villar have been smoking the ball over the last week, but Villar's ISO is out of this world, sitting at a smoldering 0.522. Look to the Brew-crews leadoff man for some extreme power, combined with the potential of a stolen base or two.

The Brewers have just the fourth highest run projection tonight (5.4) facing Chad Bettis at Coors. One reason may be that Bettis keeps the ball on the ground (51.5%) and though he's actually worse against RHBs (.357 wOBA this season), they have only taken him deep five times at home this season. Regardless, the middle of the Milwaukee order, all being right-handed, potentially holds a lot of value. Ryan Braun (123 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is fairly expensive, while Chris Carter (103 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a more moderate cost on either site and Domingo Santana (89 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4K on either site.