Chris Sale Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Chris Sale makes his first start of the season and just 10th since 2019. His latest and only AAA rehab start resulted in five walks, just three strikeouts and a trashed clubhouse. Current projections call for an ERA an estimators in the mid-threes this season. Projecting a pitcher with such a long layoff and small sample or recent work is extremely difficult, but at just $8.4K on DraftKings ($700 more on FanDuel), Sale projects as the top value on the board, though that could change. He certainly gets a park upgrade in Tampa Bay, facing a banged up team with little power (9.0 HR/FB vs LHP), but the Rays have been quite competent against southpaws this season (109 wRC+, 20 K%). With the potential range of outcomes on Sale, not necessarily being so wide, but so unknown, perhaps it’s best to let ownership projections be your best guide here. He currently projects to be fairly popular on DraftKings, but that, too, is a fluid situation.

The top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel is currently Kris Bubic, but he is probably not someone anyone wants to trust on a single pitcher site. It looked like he was starting to get his act together after a rough start, but he has recently reverted to his April form, allowing 12 runs (nine earned) over his last 14.2 innings, walking 12 of 71 batters with just 11 strikeouts. Bubic has generated a 57.4 GB% over this span, but with a 90.4 mph EV. He’s completed six innings just once this season and has just a single estimator (4.92 xFIP) below five. The Tigers have also been a bit tougher on LHP (100 wRC+, 21.8 K%), though with very little power (5.9 HR/FB). Bubic projects as the fourth best value on DraftKings for $200 less and may make a more reasonable SP2 in GPPs.

Jose Berrios projects as a top five value on FanDuel for $8.1K, but has been incredibly volatile all season. He did throw his first Quality Start in four outings last time out, but that was in Oakland. His 18.7 K% is his lowest since his rookie season and his six strikeouts against the A’s exceeds his combined total from his previous three starts (five). The real issue has been in the contact profile (90.6 mph EV, 11.5% Barrels/BBE). Of course, with the reduced strikeout rate, that means even more damage than it would normally. The Phillies have a 100 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but are missing several key bats due to injuries and restrictions. However, paying up on FanDuel still seems to be the best option tonight.

Further considering low cost DraftKings SP2 arms, Glenn Otto projects as the second best point per dollar value for just $5.7K and this is all in the matchup. Otto has walked nine and struck out just seven of 51 batters since returning to the rotation. He actually has a 0.5 K-BB% over his last nine starts now and may even be a bit fortunate that just six of his 14 barrels (9.5%) have left the yard this year. His lowest estimator on the season is a 5.22 xFIP. However, Texas is a pitcher friendly park with the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer months, while the A’s have a board low 70 wRC+ with a 23.7 K% vs RHP this year. On the other side of that matchup, James Kaprielian projects as a top five value in price only ($5.5K). He has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in six of 13 starts this year and has just a 4.0 K-BB% on the season, while allowing 9.5% Barrels/BBE. Somehow, his last two starts have still been his first two Quality Starts of the season, while all estimators are now above his 5.06 ERA, but even against Texas (92 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), you’re basically punting this spot and hoping to get another empty six innings, as he’s shown no upside this season.

In the $7K range, both Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard project as decent values. Baltimore’s allowance to let Lyles eat up a lot of innings has resulted in the occasional Quality Start with some assistance from the unearned run column (five of them). Though, in truth, he hasn’t been horrible (11.7 K-BB%) if all you’re looking for is someone to fill a spot and even the 11.6% Barrels/BBE haven’t hurt him as badly with the dimensions changing in Baltimore this year (just 12 of 36 barrels have left the yard), including none of the five he surrendered to the Angels last time out. That shot his xERA up to 5.51, the only estimator more than a single hundredth of a point above his 4.50 ERA. The problem here, is not the Cubs (101 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP), but the extremely hitter friendly conditions at Wrigley currently forecasted in Weather Edge that could magnify those barrel issues.

The strikeouts are starting to come for Syndergaard. He has 15 of them (47 BF) over his last two starts and is up to an 18.8 K% on the season with a league average 10.6 SwStr% that suggests there still may be more room for growth. He continues to exhibit great control (5.5 BB%) with a contact profile that’s a bit better than average in most areas, Non-FIP estimators are all about a quarter of a run above his 3.84 ERA. The matchup (118 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 14.6 HR/FB vs RHP) would generally be preclusive here, but without Alvarez and Brantley, the Astros are not only even more predominantly right-handed now, but add some higher strikeout bats as well. Four of nine in the projection Houston lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this season. Syndergaard still doesn’t have the upside he showed before all the injuries, but may be better off in this spot than suspected.

Chris Sale has casted his moments of doubt this season, but he’s still the top pitcher on the board and perhaps a top value in Tampa Bay as well. After allowing exactly five runs in three straight starts, he shut out the Blue Jays over six innings last time out, striking out 12 of the 22 batters he faced. He’s struck out at least 10 batters in 11 of his last 16 starts, giving him a 33.2 K-BB% over that span. That’s higher than any other pitcher’s strikeout rate alone on tonight’s board. Despite a 4.05 ERA, none of his estimators are even above three due to a 69.4 LOB%. It’s extremely difficult to generate a 35% strikeout rate while stranding less than 70% of runners over a full season. In fact, of the 50 qualified seasons of a pitcher striking out at least 30% of batters, Sale this year and Randy Johnson (2004 – 30.1 K%, 69.5 LOB%) are the only ones. As either the second or third most expensive pitcher on the board, perhaps Sale goes over-looked with an abundance of studs in stronger perceived matchups tonight, but Sale not only gets a park bump, but the Rays have a 26.1 K% vs LHP this season, which is the third highest split on the board tonight. Over the last week, the team has a 68 wRC+ and 26.8 K% with just a 10.6 Hard-Soft%. To repeat, Chris Sale is not only the top overall pitcher on the board tonight, but maybe the top value among expensive arms as well.

Despite the presence of 27 other pitchers on this slate, Chris Sale is going to be tough to avoid. Double digit strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 starts, his season ERA actually sits at 3.82 after allowing eight earned over his last 11 innings, but among those with more than four starts, his 35.5 K% leads the slate by more than a touchdown over Walker Buehler (27.2%). In fact, his 29.7 K-BB% is higher than any other strikeout rate on the board. His 78.9 Z-Contact% is the only mark below 80%, his 2.92 SIERA leads by more than half a run, his 2.32 DRA by more than a quarter run, and his .271 xwOBA by just five points over Wade Miley. Even with recent run avoidance issues, his .235 xwOBA over the last month leads the board as well, nine points better than Buehler, who is the only other $10K pitcher on both sites. Buehler has decent matchup at home against the Diamondbacks (89 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP) and may offer similar value overall, but for about $1K more, Sale offers much more upside against an offense with a 16.0 K-BB% against LHP. The Blue Jays have been on fire recently with a 155 wRC+, 8.6 K-BB% and 24.2 HR/FB over the last week, but it would still probably be a surprise if Sale weren’t to at least rack up the strikeouts again tonight. A fade is made even more difficult, by the presence of a few low priced pitchers in great spots (say in Chicago) that can easily be pared with him on DraftKings.