Chris Young Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections
High ISO With Some Fly Balls
Digging deep for value tonight, but I want to get as much exposure as I can to this LAA/BOS game tonight. Chris Young is massive fly ball hitter with a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Johnson has struggled with right-handed hitters this season. as he has a .356 wOBA with a 1.56 WHIP against righties. The thing that concerns me about stacking the Angels? Johnson gets a lot of soft contact. Overall, I'll be stacking the Red Sox a lot tonight and using some of the Angels as value options and fill-in options.
LAA RHB Have Plenty Of Upside
Erik Skoglund could be the worst pitcher on the slate and this is definitely an arm we want to attack this afternoon. Hitters from both sides of the plate have had plenty of success versus Skoglund in his short Major League career, but we are best to target the Los Angeles Angels right handed hitters in this game. In his 22.2 innings pitched at the Major League level, the Kansas City Royals southpaw has been blasted by righties, allowing .460 wOBA and a 36.6% hard hit rate, while generating as many walks as strikeouts. Skoglund was roughed up in his first start of the 2018 season (4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 ER), and I think we see similar results today at Kauffman Stadium. Albert Pujols is the top value bat to target here, with all three of Jefry Marte, Chris Young and Martin Maldonado also in play (assuming they are in the lineup) at their inexpensive price tags.
Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts are top projected hitters tonight
Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts head the RotoGrinders Player Projections on either site. After that, players begin to move up and down depending on which site players are looking at, though it's generally the same group on either site. Lindor is in a great spot at home against Matt Boyd (RHBs .373 wRC+, 38.8 Hard%) and is joined by teammate Edwin Encarnacion among the top 10. Houston is the only other offense that places multiple batters in the top 10 with both George Springer and Jose Altuve projecting strongly against Garrett Richards. The reality is that they'll likely see a lot of the Angels' bullpen with Richards having thrown just 52 pitches in his return from the DL. Betts and the Red Sox are hosting Sean Manaea. RHBs have a .343 wOBA and 37.4 Hard% against him this season. Overall, his 88.9 mph aEV is highest on the board and a 41.1% 95+ mph EV is second worst. Because there's some extremely high priced pitching on the board, players may be looking for more value offensively. Chris Young (4.37 Pt/$/K) and Andrew McCutchen (3.8 Pt/$/K) project for a lot of it on FanDuel, while Matt Carpenter (9.38 Pt/$/K) is a top DraftKings value play.
Wade Miley has just a .260 BABIP in his last five starts, leading to some slightly deceiving results
On the surface, Wade Miley seems to have righted the ship a bit recently, allowing no more than three earned runs in each of his five previous starts while eclipsing five or more strikeouts in all but one of those aforementioned outings. Although Miley has seen some good results lately, his peripheral stats certainly fail to follow suit. Today, Miley is set to face off with a Boston Red Sox squad that has the ability to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers being the only left-handed batters to crack the Boston lineup this afternoon. Miley's strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 19.1%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.4% over that same time period. Miley's 49.7% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Red Sox hitters considering he is also allowing a 24.0% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 32.5% of the time. With that said, the Red Sox offense has the chance to become one of the more over owned stacks on Sunday's main slate and don't really provide many significant one off power options throughout their order, making them a worthy fade candidate in large field tournaments if able to find other spots with as much or more upside potential . Considering the elevated ownership the Boston bats are expected to demand, it certainly wouldn't be a horrible idea to try to get creative with Red Sox stacks to better differentiate from the masses. especially in given their overall strong numbers against left-handed pitching. Based solely on statistics, Mookie Betts (114 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs LHP), Hanley Ramirez (.231 ISO vs LHP), and Chris Young (113 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .172 ISO vs LHP since 2016) stand out as the primary plays from this Red Sox lineup, while Eduardo Nunez and Xander Bogaerts are a clear tier below the previously mentioned players and are better utilized as part of a Boston stack in tournaments than individual one-offs given their lack of individual upside at the plate.
Joey Votto is the hottest hitter in the league (337 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs last seven days)
Joey Votto is the hottest hitter in the league (337 wRC+, 58.8 Hard%, four HRs). His matchup against Jimmy Nelson probably deserves it's own post. He's gone on a strikeout rampage against LHBs (36.6 K%) since mid-May, though they've still hit him hard when they do make contact (38.1 Hard%). While all of that has remained true, LHBs now have a 60.9 GB% against him over his last six starts as well. What does this mean for Votto? They've faced each other 29 times and while Baseball Savant is not up to date on those, they do have a 93.9 mph aEV on 13 BBEs. Votto did not have an extra-base hit against him until the last time he faced him (June 29th), when he homered twice, two starts before Nelson went on his ground ball rampage against LHBs. Votto has a 171 wRC+ and .288 ISO vs RHP this year. Adrian Sanchez (315 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, no HRs) & Dexter Fowler (304 wRC+, 50 Hard%, one HR) are the other two batters above a 300 wRC+ over the last week, though without much power. Sanchez is cheap in a good spot against Chris Stratton though, and Fowler is back up in the St Louis order, facing a pitcher (Mike Foltynewicz), who struggles against LHBs (.359 wOBA, 8.4 Soft% this season). Nelson Cruz (296 wRC+, 40 Hard%, five HRs) has three career HRs (23 PAs) against Ricky Nolasco. Chris Young (291 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) only has 10 PAs over the last week, but has made the most of them and it will probably keep him in the lineup against a lefty tonight, despite a 79 wRC+ and .100 ISO against them this year. Giancarlo Stanton (246 wRC+, 52.6 Hard%, six HRs) leads the majors in homers over the last week and is really the only hot bat on on offense facing Jon Gray. RHBs have just a 25.6 Hard% against him since last season.
Mookie Betts is top overall projected bat tonight, while Dustin Pedroia rates as a top value
Arizona is the only offense with two batters in the top five overall (top six on DraftKings) among the RotoGrinders Players Projections. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb stand a good chance of being among top scorers at home tonight against Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides this year. Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak (180 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) both project strongly against Wade Miley, who has sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls lately. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season, but Bautista has just a 35 wRC+ and .063 ISO against LHP this year. Mookie Betts (111 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is the top overall projected bat against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .349 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%). On FanDuel, a minimum priced Max Moroff in the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh against Blake Snell projects at the top potential value (3.88 Pt/$/K), followed by a trio of Boston bats below $3K (Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia, Sam Travis). Pedroia and Travis also share top value honors on DraftKings at just below 2.5 Pt/$/K, followed closely by Jose Bautista (2.47 Pt/$/K).
Affordable Toronto bats expected to be popular on DK, Boston hitters on FD
The Toronto Bash Brothers, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson, project to be the most popular bats on DraftKings. Each are affordably right around $4K against Kevin Gausman. RHBs have a .373 wOBA against him since last year. The Red Sox have the evening's highest implied run line, the only team above six runs, and the top half of that order (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Chris Young) are projected to be the most popular bats on FanDuel. Mark Reynolds, who has three career HRs against Matt Cain, currently has the top Contrarian Rating on either site and is expected to have minimal ownership rates on either site. Max Scherzer is the easy pick to be in the most lineups on the mound tonight. Jose Quintana has been pitching well lately, but is not expected to be in many lineups even against a weakened Yankee lineup. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available for premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
RotoGrinders Player Projections like inexpensive Boston bats on FanDuel tonight
The top seven overall bats according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections come from seven different teams tonight with the Blue Jays the first team to show up with a pair (Jose Bautista & Justin Smoak). Cody Bellinger (153 wRC+, .398 ISO vs RHP) was shut down last night, but owns the top projected bat in another solid matchup at home against Jesse Chavez (LHBs .327 wOBA since last season). Mookie Betts (115 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2015) grabs the second spot in the lineup with the top implied run line against Hector Santiago (RHBs 37.5 Hard% since last year). Charlie Blackmon (135 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top three with a massive park downgrade in San Francisco, but Matt Cain (LHBs .380 wOBA since last year) can make any park feel like Coors. Top projected values on FanDuel are among the cheaper Boston bats in Chris Young (4.47 Pt/$/K) and Sam Travis (3.86 Pt/$/K), both for just $2.3K. The former has failed to do much against LHP this year (71 wRC+, .047 ISO), while the latter does not yet have even 30 PAs against them at the major league level. Among those projected for at least seven points on DraftKings, Carlos Santana may be the top value for just $3.2K against Tyson Ross. He has a 107 wRC+ and .189 ISO vs RHP this year, but drops down to seventh in the Cleveland lineup tonight.
The Red Sox have an implied run line more than a half run higher than any other offense
The Boston Red Sox have a significant lead on the field with a 6.29 implied run line, well over half a run more than any other team. Eight more teams are implied for 4.9 runs or more. More affordable Boston bats like Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Sandy Leon, Jackie Bradley Jr. and whoever ends up at 1B if Hanley Ramirez misses again (Hector Santiago has actually been worse against LHBs) could provide a pathway to pay up for Max Scherzer. LH Cleveland bats should be popular against Tyson Ross as will Toronto stacks against Kevin Gausman (RHBs .373 wOBA since last season). Another spot players may want to look for affordable bats is LH Pirates. Alex Cobb has surrendered a .359 wOBA (37.3 Hard%) to LHBs since last season and the Pirates are employing a more balanced lineup in recent weeks. Adam Frazier (105 wRC+) has been a league average bat against RHP, while both Josh Bell and John Jaso have an ISO above .200 against them. On the other side of that matchup, batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 against Trevor Williams, though RHBs have a hard hit rate nearly 10 points higher (34.7% to 25.4%). The Rays have just a middling 4.42 implied run line.
Hanley Ramirez scratched on Monday; Chris Young will now enter the lineup and bat 6th
Ramirez has been scratched on Monday and will be replaced by Chris Young, who will slot into the six spot of the Boston order. Bats from both sides of this match-up are best left alone with Chris Sale and Jose Berrios squaring off.