Christian Villanueva

San Diego Padres
Pos: 3B | Hand: R
Status: Inactive
player props

Christian Villanueva Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

High power bats against a struggling pitcher

Tyler Anderson has not had a good month (7.16 ERA, 4.91 SIERA), but the Padres are implied for just 4.45 implied runs, despite having a few bats with power against LHP. Christian Villanueva (203 wRC+, .407 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (131 wRC+, .309 ISO) are certainly worth playing here, despite Anderson's .304 wOBA against RHBs. Franmil Reyes (166 wRC+, .323 ISO) and Wil Myers (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) may be worth a shot as well.

Elite Marks Against LHP

Jon Lester is about as over-rated as it gets, and regression has started to catch up to him a bit. His 3.22 ERA is belied by a 4.77 SIERA and 4.70 xFIP, his strikeouts are down to just 18.8% this year, and his walks are up over 9%. That is his lowest strikeout mark since 2008 and his highest walk rate since his rookie season. The Padres are also a decent offense against left-handed pitching, sending plenty of right-handed power to the plate. That sets up very well given today’s weather. Christian Villanueva has cooled since a hot start to the year, but he’s still been very good against lefties with a .460 wOBA, .422 ISO, and 1.114 OPS against southpaws for the year. He’s a core value for me today.

Huge Platoon Split 3rd Baseman

I think we're getting to the point in Villanueva's career that we can accept that he's good vs. lefties. On the year, Villanueva owns ridiculous .422 ISO and .461 wOBA vs. LHP. He draws a matchup vs. Lester who isn't the same pitcher he used to be. He's giving up a bunch of hard contact (36.6%) and a decent amount of FB's (38.1%) vs. righties and the winds should be blowing out in Wrigley. At this moment, we don't have a line for the game, but with these conditions it should be high and Villanueva should be a big factor.

Many interesting parts in this west coast matchup

With half of tonight's slate on the west coast, we're going to have to project on some of these lineups for a bit longer, but one spot that could be interesting for both pitching and offense could be San Diego. Derek Holland has been good and Eric Lauer is cheap, while there are plenty of soft spots in either lineup in a very negative run environment with both teams around the four implied run mark. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within four points of .360 against Lauer this year though and both Andrew McCutchen (130 wRC+, .202 ISO) and Buster Posey (132 wRC+, .151 ISO) have hit LHP well over the last calendar year with Evan Longoria (112 wRC+, .208 ISO) an option with an upgraded lineup slot. On the other side, Derek Holland has improved his wOBA against RHBs by over 60 points this season, but they still have a .341 mark against him with all 14 of his home runs surrendered. There are plenty of strikeouts in this San Diego lineup, but also quite a bit of RH power: Wil Myer (118 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Hunter Renfroe (144 wRC+, .304 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (201 wRC+, .434 ISO).

Late afternoon top overall bats with a couple of potential values

Lineups for the four late afternoon games have not yet been released, but utilizing RotoGrinders Projected Lineups, Eric Thames (138 wRC+, .293 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) could be one of the top late afternoon bats on the board and likely with low ownership considering the cost and opponent, but LHBs do have a .334 xwOBA against Jose Berrios since last season. Thames has a 179 wRC+ with three HRs over the last week. Mike Trout (183 wRC+, .309 ISO) is always a top bat, even if he costs $6K (DK) and Mike Leake has been tough on RHBs (.310 wOBA since last season). Leake is much more generous to LHBs (.322 wOBA, but .377 xwOBA) and Shohei Ohtani (187 wRC+, .310 ISO) returned to the lineup last night. While Luis Perdomo keeps the ball on the ground, LHBs have a .361 wOBA against him since last season (55.3 GB%). Jed Lowrie (132 wRC+, .196 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Matt Olson (150 wRC+, .331 ISO) look strong. Rhys Hoskins (143 wRC+, .290 ISO) is facing a rookie RHP (Yefry Ramirez), who has a 35 GB% at AAA this season. Eddie Rosario (159 wRC+, .304 ISO) faces the reverse split Chase Anderson (RHBs .276 wOBA, 36 GB%), but he's a great hitter against a fly ball pitcher in a power friendly park. Christian Villaneuva (206 wRC+, .465 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (166 wRC+, .353 ISO) will target Sean Manaea (RHBs .354 xwOBA, 38.7 Hard% since last year). Potential value plays, if leading off today, might be Brad Miller (104 wRC+, .175 ISO) for $3.5K or less on either site and a 152 wRC with a 73.3 Hard% over the last week and Kole Calhoun (80 wRC+, .149 ISO) who costs $3.3K or less against Leake.

Cheap bats with power in Texas could help pave way for high priced pitching

Though still just barely upper half of the board, a 4.47 implied run line is really kind of below average for Texas, but their 89 wRC+ against LHP, the Padres have some RHBs who can mash. Batters from that side of the plate have a .322 wOBA against Cole Hamels since last year, but a .348 xwOBA with a 41.6 Hard%. He's allowed 18 HRs this season, 11 of them to RHBs at home. He's allowed a HR in each of his home starts this season and multiple HRs in five of the seven. Christian Villanueva (222 wRC+, .406 xwOBA, .494 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Manuel Margot (110 wRC+, .209 ISO), Hunter Renfroe (157 wRC+, .356 ISO) are all candidates to do some damage for less than $4K on DraftKings. Everyone in the lineup, including Wil Myers (92 wRC+, .210 ISO) is below $3K on FanDuel. This is one possible path to affording Justin Verlander.

Could be some upside to bats with the platoon advantage in San Francisco

Even at less than their best, same-handed batters may not be a successful proposition against either Madison Bumgarner or Tyson Ross. Select batters with the platoon advantage in either lineup could have some merit though. LHBs have a .392 wOBA with equal 44.2% ground ball and hard hit rates against Ross over the last month. He's a pitcher with a history of platoon issues (LHBs .351 wOBA, .365 xwOBA since last season). San Francisco is far from an optimal park for LHBs, but Brandon Belt (162 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is so good that he should be considered in this spot. Bumgarner has faced 64 right-handed batters this season. He's struck out just six and allowed six HRs (.381 wOBA). Obviously not this bad when everything's right, the Padres do have a few bats who can mash southpaws, all for well below $4K on either site and in a park that's a bit more fair for RHBs. Jose Pirela (121 wRC+, .180 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Hunter Renfroe (159 wRC+, .354 ISO) and Christian Villanueva (235 wRC+, .414 xwOBA, .541 ISO) are batters that should be considered. Lineups for this game have not yet been confirmed.

Upper half of the San Diego order has punished LHP

Caleb Smith pitched well against the Padres last time out (7 IP - 1 R - 4 K) and could be an interesting option tonight as well. San Diego has just a 3.53 implied run line, but they do have some bats in the first half of the order that can rake against LHP. Smith has had a reverse platoon in his short career (RHBs .287 wOBA, LHBs .343 wOBA), but xwOBA closes that gap to 25 points (LHBs .324). That makes each of the first four batters in the San Diego order a bit interesting. Jose Pirela (132 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Hunter Renfroe (163 wRC+, .363 ISO) both cost less than $4K on either site. Christian Villaneuva (255 wRC+, .435 xwOBA, .571 ISO) has been an MVP candidate against southpaws. Eric Hosmer (100 wRC+, .169 ISO) is competent against same-handed pitching and has a 70.6 Hard% over the last week.

Christian Villanueva has a 261 wRC+, .454 xwOBA and .567 ISO against LHP

Caleb Smith's 31.7 K% is suspect, especially with just a 10.8 SwStr% over the last month. He may be able to sustain it in San Diego today (18.3 K-BB% vs LHP), but it's not an offense without dangerous bats against southpaws (16.3 HR/FB). Christian Villanueva has destroyed LHP in 64 PAs (261 wRC+, .454 xwOBA, .567 ISO, 42.9 Hard%). Fellow lefty masher Hunter Renfroe (175 wRC+, .393 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has returned to the lineup. Jose Pirela (128 wRC+, .199 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site. Smith has handled RHBs well in his career (.286 wOBA), but Statcast increases that mark by 40 points (.326 xwOBA), giving him virtually no platoon split.

It's Not A Crazy Idea

I'm a big fan of Tyler Anderson tonight, and he will be one of the main pitchers I use on this slate. That said, I think his toughest matchup will be Christian Villanueva, and I don't mind even playing them on the same team together, as Villaneuva is crushing left-handed pitching this season. He has a .658 ISO with a .574 wOBA and a 52% hard hit rate in 41 PAs against southpaws. Villaneuva won't be able to keep this up, but I do think he's good against lefties, and at his price tag, I think he's very much in play. I don't love a lot of third basemen tonight, and that's another reason I don't mind taking him against my pitcher on the same team.