Clayton Richard Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The game at Yankee Stadium between the Yankees and Blue Jays may not currently have a total due to the uncertain pitching plans of the home team, but it wouldn’t be a bad guess to suggest the Yankees might be the top offense on the board, well above six runs, once their total is posted. A few words, or numbers, concerning Clayton Richard, starter for the Blue Jays tonight. He has a -0.8 K-BB% and despite a 55.8 GB%, has allowed a HR in five straight starts. His 95.4 Z-Contact% is worst on the board by more than four points. Exactly one quarter of the fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard. Sustainable? Maybe not, but deserved? He owns a board worst 93.4 mph aEV and 55.8% 95+ mph EV (no other pitcher today is above 49%). The only thing keeping his Barrels/BBE in single digits (9.3%) is that ground ball rate. Over the last calendar year, RHBs own a .402 wOBA, .407 xwOBA, 44.7 Hard% and 50 GB% against him. The Yankees could legitimately post a lineup with six to seven All-Star caliber RH bats. Giancarlo Stanton (120 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) could even be considered one of the “weak spots”. Edwin Encarnacion (130 wRC+, .244 ISO), Luke Voit (155 wRC+, .297 ISO), Gleyber Torres (106 wRC+, .268 ISO), Gary Sanchez (134 wRC+, .329 ISO) and Aaron Judge (211 wRC+, .300 ISO) should all put fear into the minds of southpaws. It may be obvious, but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees allowing Richard to get very deep into this effort.

Clayton Richard has a 12.6 K% which immediately removes him from daily fantasy consideration, especially against an offense with a 16.3 K% vs LHP. So the question becomes, what should we expect to be done against him. It’s not always so easy as Richard has not been below a 56 GB% since 2013, but this year he dips to 55.9%, which is still great, but he has allowed a HR in four straight starts with 57.4% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. A .367 xwOBA confirms, he’s generating rockets all over the field, so it’s no surprise that the Angels own the top implied run line on the board tonight at 5.75. Richard has faced 308 RHBs over the last calendar year, a large enough sample for his .389 wOBA and .399 xwOBA with a 44.1 Hard% (51.5 GB%) to be quite terrifying. Mike Trout (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be favored to homer tonight and Albert Pujols (118 wRC+, .284 ISO) has remained a formidable presence against southpaws. David Fletcher (84 wRC+, .105 ISO) and Justin Upton (50 wRC+, .128 ISO) have been less successful, but are also expected to have some value in this spot, projected in the top half of this lineup.

Clayton Richard has walked six of the 34 batters he’s faced, striking out just five (board worst 91.1 Z-Contact%, second worst 48.1 Z-O-Swing%) with a 54.5 GB%, but a 93.5 mph aEV and 61.9% 95+ mph that are both worst on the board. Considering Richard has kept LHBs on the ground 75.8% of the time over the last 12 months, players will want to limit exposure to RHBs, which shouldn’t really prohibit any really important Yankee bats tonight. Batters with the platoon advantage have a .346 wOBA, but .383 xwOBA with a 43.4 Hard% against Richard over the last 12 months. Luke Voit (160 wRC+, .355 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is one of the most interesting bats on the slate tonight, but Gary Sanchez (106 wRC+, .282 ISO), Gleyber Torres (112 wRC+, .280 ISO), Aaron Hicks (112 wRC+, .240 ISO), DJ LeMahieu (120 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Clint Frazier (112 wRC+, .195 ISO) are all dangerous bats as well. The Yankees are one of 10 teams above five implied runs tonight, but are on the back half of that top third of the board (5.25).

Rarely do we see a west coast offense with the top run line on the slate, but that's exactly where we find the Dodgers (tied at 5.3) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball because Clayton Richard hasn't been good recently, has been missing no bats (8.3 K% last 30 days), and although RHBs have just a .333 wOBA against him, xwOBA brings that up to .370. Each of the first four batters in the lineup have at least a 120 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year. Justin Turner (176 wRC+, .216 ISO) is the must have here.

The afternoon slate for both sites contains eight games, starts at 12:10 ET, and features just one high priced pitcher. Another potentially interesting pitcher (Nathan Eovaldi) has just been traded an hour before he was to throw his first pitch. Trevor Bauer (31.3 K%, 3.16 SIERA, .273 xwOBA) costs $3-4K more than any other pitcher and is easily the top pitcher on the board. Prior to striking out exactly seven in each of his last two starts, he'd struck out at least eight in nine straight. He's also walked at least four in two of his last three starts, lasting only four innings in Texas last time out. This afternoon, he's facing a contact prone Pittsburgh offense (19.2 K% vs RHP) in a positive run environment. The Pirates also have a league best 180 team wRC+ with a 15.7 K% and 22 HR/FB since the break. The positive is that one of the hottest hitters on the team, Corey Dickerson, is out of the lineup today. Bauer will need double digit strikeouts to cover his price tag. Freddie Peralta actually has a higher strikeout rate (34.5%), while Robbie Ray equals Bauer (31.3%). Peralta has struck out just 14 of 61 batters over his last three starts, utilizing his fastball close to 80% of the time. He's also managed contact well (.284 xwOBA, 86.7 mph aEV, 3.9% Barrels/BBE) and is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($9.5K). Ray costs less than $7.5K on either site because his walk (11.7%) and hard contact (90.3 mph aEV, 10.7% Barrels/BBE) rates mandate he strike out a ton of batters just stay in the league. In his last outing, he struck out just two Rockies and allowed the same number of HRs. Both have difficult matchups against the Nationals (11.8 K-BB% vs RHP) and Cubs (12.3 K-BB% vs LHP) in dangerous parks. The Cubs are down Kris Bryant today though, a major bat against LHP. Jack Flaherty (29 K%) has the next highest strikeout rate and has also been a quality contact manager (.286 xwOBA, 85.9 mph aEV), throwing his slider 30% of the time. He's been held to 75 or fewer pitches in three of his last six starts, but thrown more than 100 in each of the other three, including a nine strikeout performance last time out. He's in a dangerous park against a competent Reds' offense (11.4 K-BB% vs RHP), but an ice cold one (41 wRC+ since the break), who were nearly no-hit by pitchers making their first major league start on two consecutive days, which means they're probably likely to unload on the most talented pitcher of the three. Walker Buehler (25.3 K%) might be interesting in a high upside spot in a dangerous park in Philadelphia (25.8 K% vs RHP) at a price tag of around $8K, but he's thrown a total of eight innings at every level (MLB, AAA) since the beginning of July. Two low upside pitchers are facing each other in a great park. Clayton Richard (57.5 GB%) has just an 11.1 K% over the last 30 days. Corey Owsalt has struck out two or fewer in three of his four starts, but seven in his other and had a 23.4 K% at AAA this season. Both the Mets and Padres have a 79 wRC+ and 26 K% against the handedness of the pitcher being faced today. Both pitchers have a price range from $5.5K to $7.1K on either site.

Clayton Richard did complete six innings with just two earned runs in his last start, but has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three straight starts, giving him a -8.0 K-BB% in July. Although he’s sustained a 59.2 GB% over that span, it’s with a 49% hard hit rate. While RHBs do have a 55.5 GB% against him since last year, that comes with a 40 Hard% and .359 wOBA. Philadelphia is a very power friendly park, so anything in the air has a chance to go and Kevin has a light wind blowing out to left tonight. Rhys Hoskins (132 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Carlos Santana (126 wRC+, .190 ISO) are the top bats here and, although Richard is not easy to run on, Cesar Hernandez (120 wRC+, .113 ISO) stands a decent shot of reaching base and scoring ahead of the big bats behind him. The Phillies may not receive much attention at just 4.44 implied runs in the middle of the board.

Although there is a lack of top end arms on the board, there's no shortage of value arms on the mound with a couple of guys who could end up with high end performances. Shane Bieber brings a 20+ K-BB% to a matchup with the Royals. The Royals have just a 19.2 K% vs RHP, but also have a 78 wRC+, 7.0 BB%, and 8.0 HR/FB vs RHP with their own 20 K-BB% (37 wRC+) over the last week. Bieber is up to $9.6K on DraftKings, but his performance still probably warrants a higher price, while being $1.6K less on FanDuel. Ryan Yarbrough is finally starting and doing so in Miami (split low 75 wRC+ and 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP) for around $6K. He's gone six innings in several outings and has allowed just one run over his last 10.2 innings against the Yankees and Astros. He has just a 16.4 K% over the last month, but with a 10.8 SwStr%. His 26.8% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the board. Domingo German doesn't just have the highest SwStr% on the board, but his 15.4% is best by several points. The only guys better than that in the majors (Scherzer, Sale, deGrom) are all serious Cy Young contenders. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board (Greinke is the other) with elite Z-Contact (79.7%) and Z-O-Swing (29.5%) rates. This means he’s getting batters to swing at his pitches and he’s making them miss even when they aren’t. His 5.32 ERA is not even a result of being hit that hard. While an 18.0 HR/FB is an undesirable feature of Yankee Stadium, he also has just a 55.8 LOB% since being moved into the rotation. The Braves don't strike out a lot (20% vs RHP), but have just a 95 wRC+ and 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP too. German costs just $6.5K on FanDuel. Trevor Richards has just a 10 K-BB% in 10 major league starts due to a 10.5 BB%. However, he had a 21.9 K-BB% at AAA this year and a 18.8 K-BB% at AA and 24.4 K-BB% at A+ last year. He might be at least competent for $5.9K on FanDuel against a slumping Rays' offense (56 wRC+, 25.7 K%, 3.1 HR/FB last seven days) in a great park. Clayton Richards will not give you much upside, but he leads all qualified starters in ground ball rate (57.7%) and last failed to complete six innings in his first start of May. He’s failed to complete seven innings in only three starts since then. He's more likely than not to complete seven innings in Oakland for $6.8K on DraftKings. Zack Wheeler shut out the Pirates for seven innings with seven Ks last time out. He has now struck out 22 of his last 76 batters and has gone at least six innings in nine of his last 11 starts, missing once by just a single out. His 85.5 mph aEV is lowest on the board tonight.The Blue Jays have a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week.

The Rangers have a 4.91 implied run line against Clayton Richard that's almost entirely about the run environment in Texas. Richard has gone at least six innings in nine straight starts, over which he has a 15.3 K-BB% with a 64.4 GB%. Players can immediately eliminate LHBs (.286 wOBA, .242 xwOBA, 70.6 GB% since last season). The Rangers do not. They've scattered three across the first eight batters. Even RHBs have just a .254 wOBA against Richard over this span with a 15.5 K-BB% and 58.6 GB%. The one caveat here is the rate of hard contact allowed. RHBs still have a 40.9 Hard% over this span and all batters have an 89.4 mph aEV against him this year. This makes Richard difficult to roster in this environment and probably means players should at least have some exposure to Adrian Beltre (173 wRC+, .204 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Elvis Andrus (126 wRC+, .198 ISO) because hard ground balls can go for hits. Jurickson Profar (131 wRC+, .286 ISO) and Delino DeShields (115 wRC+, .178 ISO) may be options as well, but Richard is not an easy pitcher to run on.