Cody Reed Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

On a seven game Thursday night slate, we find Max Scherzer and Masahiro Tanaka as the two pitchers above a $10K price tag. Scherzer (34.2 K%, 2.75 SIERA, .261 xwOBA) struggled in Atlanta last time out and has now allowed at least three runs in four straight with fewer than seven strikeouts twice. He's also gone at least seven innings with double digit strikeouts in two of those starts. The Mets are about a league average offense both on the road and vs RHP (21.8 K%). Tanaka (25.6 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .311 xwOBA) has struck out 18 of his last 51 and allowed one run or less in four of five starts, but may be a bit over-priced against the Red Sox (113 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP). If paying up for Scherzer, players may be considering Cody Reed (23.1 K%, 3.68 SIERA, .274 xwOBA) in Miami (81 wRC+ vs LHP) as their low cost DK compliment. Vince Velasquez (26.3 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .304 xwOBA) is a moderately priced option against an Atlanta offense with just a 94 wRC+ at home and vs RHP, but low strikeout upside (20.4% vs RHP). Matt Boyd (22.9 K%, 4.24 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) faces a Kansas City offense with a higher strikeout rate vs LHP (23.9% with a 78 wRC+).

Cody Reed allowed 12 HRs in 10 starts for the Reds in 2016 and then another three in 17.2 innings, mostly in relief last year. However, he's allowed just 13 in 179.1 AAA innings since 2016, though he's struggled with control at both levels over the last two years (12.7 BB% at AAA last season, 12.3 BB% in 65.1 major league innings). He does tend to keep the ball on the ground (53.7 GB% MLB career), but there's certainly potential for Rhys Hoskins (153 wRC+, .400 ISO, 45.5 Hard%, 48.5 FB% vs LHP career) to do damage as well as Aaron Altherr (118 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP since last season), who sees an unfortunate drop in the lineup after struggling to start the year (62 wRC+ last seven days). He costs $3.4K or less on either site though. Maikel Franco (88 wRC+, .219 ISO) has the third highest ISO against LHP since last season in the lineup tonight and has a 262 wRC+ over the last week. His cost has risen to $4K on DraftKings though ($3.3K on FD). Scott Kingery has cooled off since his hot spring (27 wRC+, 20 Hard% last seven days). Those control issues would make it likely that Carlos Santana (104 wRC+, .163 ISO) reaches base and potentially scores multiple runs tonight, but he comes at a high cost for average production against LHP.

There's no doubting that the season long of metrics of Cody Reed look pretty brutal, but he has improved recently despite allowing five earned runs in each of his last two starts. He got extremely unlucky as reflected by the .400 BABIP and .368 BABIP in those starts. Reed has also managed to limit opponents to only two home runs in his last three starts, which is a vast improvement over the nine he allowed in his first five major league starts. This by no means an endorsement for Reed, but merely, a reminder to pump the brakes on the excessive love for Cardinals hitters in this matchup. With that said, Reed has surrendered a massive 40.6% hard contact rate thus far this season giving a few of the Cardinals bats some added upside. Stephen Piscotty (189 wRC+, .453 wOBA, .307 ISO) is by the best one-off option of all the Cardinals batters as he has mashed left-handed pitching this season. Matt Carpenter (133 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .204 ISO vs LHP) and Matt Holliday (.236 ISO vs LHP) would be the best secondary plays to accompany Piscotty in a little Cards mini-stack.

Not only do the Cardinals have one of the highest team totals of the day, they also have a lot of value bats hitting in prime lineup spots. Reds lefty Cody Reed has struggled mightily in his rookie season and the Reds have said they are content in letting him work through his struggles at the major league level, which is great news for DFS players. Reed has allowed a .408 wOBA to RH bats including a 2.8 HR/9 rate with a 41.9 hard%, so there is no reason not to pick on him with several of the Cardinals right-handers. Tommy Pham will draw the nod at the top of the order, and while he doesn't have much data available against LHP, he's got some power upside out of the leadoff spot and is priced very reasonably given his opportunity here. Pham's biggest weakness is the strikeout, so if he work around that this evening, he should be in good shape. Jedd Gyorko will slot into the two-hole, and while his numbers against LHs also aren't overwhelming by any stretch, he does flash that 2-HR upside every now and again and considering Reed's issues with the long ball, it wouldn't be surprising to see him leave the yard tonight. Stephen Piscotty (.460 wOBA, .301 ISO) is among the top overall plays on tonight's slate, and pairing him up with Matt Holliday (.308 wOBA, .248 ISO) is a viable move in any format. Jhonny Peralta will hit sixth tonight and he certainly has some power upside against lefties (.201 ISO vs. LHP in 2015), so he's also very playable as part of a Cardinals stack or as a stand-alone play. Any of the bats in the top seven here are in play, even the lefties who are likely to get a few shots at the plate against right-handed relievers (the Reds own the league's worst bullpen).

Cody Reed has some strikeout ability (23.3 K%, 10.1 SwStr%), but a 39.8 Hard% has led to a nine HRs in six starts. Even with that, a 34.6 HR/FB is completely unsustainable. It was above 40% before his last start against Atlanta and a major park upgrade in San Francisco might help even more. The Giants also strike out a bit more vs LHP (18.9%). While all of this still may not be enough to take a chance on Reed, perhaps his $6.8K price tag on DraftKings doesn't look terrible on a two pitcher site. On the other hand, RHBs have a .421 wOBA and 43.2 Hard% against him so far. Buster Posey (146 wRC+, .203 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has to be considered one of the top Catchers tonight and costs $3.9K on either site. The other interesting thing is Mac Williamson (134 wRC, .280 ISO vs LHP this season) batting 3rd for just $2.6K on DraftKings, but Jarrett Parker was in a similarly good spot last night and was PH for after two trips to the plate.

Cody Reed has a 42.5 Hard%, which has led to a ridiculous .380 BABIP in addition to nine of his 22 fly balls leaving the yard. That's terrible, but a 40.9 HR/FB has to come down just by dumb luck. The rest of it has been a tendency to predictably groove his fastball whenever he gets behind with nearly of the damage coming on straight, hard stuff because he doesn't really have a fastball that blows people away. His slider, which he really only throws while ahead, has led to a 24.0 K%, so there is upside, furthered by facing the Braves tonight (74 wRC+, 7.5 HR/FB). This is a spot where a player with a high risk tolerance could consider him tonight, though his $8.1K cost on DraftKings makes it more difficult. Due to his issues, we're not taking cheap Braves bats off the board at all. Anthony Recker (118 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015) does have some power and can serve as a punt catcher, while Adonis Garcia (116 wRC+, .176 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another great punt option at 3B with both below $3K on either site. Leadoff man Gordon Beckham (124 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season) has a -86 wRC+ over the last week, but is another affordable option (below $3.5K on either site) in the leadoff spot with RHBs having a .454 wOBA against Reed in a power friendly park.

Cody Reed has a 4.76 xFIP versus RHBs this year and is only striking out RHBs 19% of the time. His unbelievably high HR/FB ratio does not seem sustainable (39%), but his hard hit rate allowed to these same RHBs is a substantial 43%, in addition to 31% medium hit contact. Basically, Cody Reed is getting hit extremely hard and that is Giancarlo Stanton's specialty. Look for the contact Stanton makes today to be leaving his bat at a high velocity and just maybe out of the park....

It took 15 innings and some ingenuity from Cubs manager Joe Maddon last night for Chicago to secure victory over the home team Reds and they'll get an early start today with the Cubs and Kyle Hendricks substantial (-194) favorites over the Reds and Cody Reed. Hendricks is a safe option with limited upside (he's only struck out more than seven twice this season) but he's definitely in play for both cash and GPP's at his price point and match up. Most of the Reds can be avoided although Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are always worth consideration when facing a RHP. The entire Cubs lineup is in play with Kris Bryant the top option. Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, and Matthew Szczur all provide cheap options in the 4 thru 6 spots of the lineup but buyer beware as their floor is as low as their ceiling might be high.

Cody Reed is the third of three arms in the Johnny Cueto trade (Finnegan, Lamb), all of whom have now made their way to the Cincinnati rotation. He struck out nine of 28 Astros in his debut and is said to have made major improvements this season, especially against RHBs, but still struggles with control and command occasionally. He does appear to have some upside (Padres 23.8 K% vs LHP), though may be a very risky start for $6.5K or more against one of the best offenses in the league vs LHP (116 wRC+, 17.2 HR/FB) in a power friendly park. It starts with Matt Kemp, who has destroyed LHP this season (196 wRC+, .400 ISO). Wil Myers has been strong as well (142 wRC+, .228 ISO vs LHP), but may be a bit over-priced. Upton (125 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP) and Solarte (189 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP) might be stronger value plays for $3.6K or less on either site. Adam Rosales (113 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP) can serve as a total punt in the Outfield (if paying up for Scherzer for example) batting 8th for less than $3K.