Colby Lewis Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Rays could very easily qualify as the best team to stack today, considering they are facing off against Colby Lewis in Texas. Colby Lewis is one spot behind Luis Severino for the worst SIERA in the majors over the last couple of weeks, sitting at a pitiful 7.50. While Lewis has been known to defy his peripheral statistics at times, his numbers are even worse than usual over the last fourteen days. A 56% flyball percentage, coupled with an 11% k-rate and a 30% hard-hit rate should lead to trouble. Lewis does not pick favorites, seeing that he has an identical 5.11 xFIP versus both LHBs and RHBs. The Rays are by no means hitting the ball well lately, so we will have to make an arbitrary hard-hit cutoff of 25% over the last week. Using this cutoff, we can stack up Mikie Mahtook, Brad Miller, Logan Forsythe, and Evan Longoria, and then kick up our feet and hope for good things to happen.

Colby Lewis carried a no-hitter into the 9th in his last start in Oakland. He struck out four of 30 batters with just 8% weak contact in that game and now has a .234 BABIP and 83.3 LOB% for the season. He has a nice matchup against a Votto-less Reds lineup, but this offense still has some power in Adam Duvall (134 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jay Bruce (135 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP this season). Zack Cozart (101 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP this season) adds some pop as an inexpensive SS out of the leadoff spot. Lewis has allowed a 37.4% hard hit rate this season with 12 HRs as an extreme fly ball pitcher (0.83 GB/FB) in one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league.

Colby Rasmus has just three strikeouts over his last three starts and his 84.6 LOB% is well above his career average. Don't be fooled by his 3.09 ERA with estimators sitting a run and a half higher. This is a hard contact pitcher (26.0 Hard-Soft%) in a dangerous park against a hard contact offense (15.3 HR/FB, 16.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). In fact, Houston has the 3rd highest run projection tonight (4.91) and might not be as highly owned as they should be if players are too respectful of Lewis's ERA. He has allowed hard contact with at least a .300 wOBA to batters from either side since last season. This is a very stackable offense with Springer (120 wRC+, .179 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Carlos Correa (128 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) being top overall options with Colby Rasmus (108 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) potentially being the top value play for less than $4K on either site out of the cleanup spot. We don't normally like to to look at the 9th position, but when you find a low priced Catcher with some pop (104 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2015) on a difficult night a the position, an exception might be made. Additionally, this is a lineup with some batted ball success against Lewis. Correa (2 HRs) and Rasmus both have a 97 mph aEV in a combined 20 batted balls against Lewis since last season. Carlos Gomez (81 wRC+, .127 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is really the only bat that should probably be omitted here.

Colby Lewis has a 3.12 ERA because he is stranding 91.7% of his base runners. While a 20.8 K-BB% over his last three starts is impressive, a 9.0 SwStr% is slightly below average over that span and he struck out ZERO in the start preceding that run. He's allowed a HR in seven of eight starts and faces a team with a lot of power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a tough park tonight. Carlos Correa (133 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) actually has a lower cost on DraftKings than FanDuel tonight, but is right around $4.5K on both sites. If we're looking for bats with power to take advantage of HR tendencies, we're left with five with an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season, including Correa, batting 3rd through 8th with a min-priced Colin Moran sandwiched in between with only Correa above $4K. We normally don't like to roster someone in the 8th slot, especially for $3.2K, but Catcher is a very weak position and Castro also brings a .218 wRC+ over the last week. Correa and Springer each have a 99 mph aEV since the beginning of last season vs Lewis in a combined 13 batted ball events. They won't all homer, but with a 4.5 run projection tonight, this could easily be the start where it all falls apart for Lewis.

Colby Lewis is a pitcher that always attracts the attention of fantasy pundits nationally as a pitcher to target. Lewis has a fairly high xFIP against both LHB and RHB at 4.73 and 4.61, respectively. His hard contact is between 35% and 38% against batters on both sides of the plate, yet his ERA this season sits at a respectable 3.20. Michael Saunders, a batter who finished last year with a wRC+ of 159 versus RHP, is leading off against a right-handed pitcher today. The Blue Jays stack may be a popular one today, but that is with good reason as the three batters following Michael Saunders (Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion), each had an wRC+ over 140 against right-handed pitchers last year.

While Colby Lewis has always been a HR prone pitcher, a 93.1 LOB% is something new and something that can't be sustained, likely to wreak havoc on an ERA well more than a run below his estimators. His eight HRs allowed in six starts is tied for 2nd most in the majors. Lots of hard contact in the air with a below average strikeout rate in a run friendly environment is a bad thing against any offense. The White Sox have been just average, but have two strong bats against RHP players might want some exposure to in this situation. Adam Eaton (128 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) leads off with a 161 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% over the last week. Jose Abreu (141 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP) is stronger against same handed pitching and has a 211 wRC+ over the last week. Both are at least $3.5K on each site. A cheaper bat to consider for cost cutting purposes, just due to circumstances, might be Melky Cabrera (107 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) for under $3.5K, who may bat with RBI opportunities tonight in the middle of the lineup.

Toronto has struggled with the likes of Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin already this week, so while it wouldn't be shocking to see them end up under their team total for the night, they have a very good shot at putting up crooked numbers against Colby Lewis. Lewis' 21.0 Hd-St% (difference between hard and soft contact) is the biggest on this slate and the fact that he's been allowing HRs at an alarming rate (7 already this season, 4 to LHs) does not bode well for him in Rogers Centre. His unbelievably high LOB% (98.0% vs. LHs, 94.9% vs. RHs) will obviously begin to see a steep drop off, and when that happens it could lead to some huge run totals being put up against him. The Toronto lineup certainly boasts the pop to make that happen - Jose Bautista (.412 wOBA, .328 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015), Josh Donaldson (.433 wOBA, .304 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015) and Edwin Encarnacion (.383 wOBA, .280 ISO vs. RHs at home in 2015) are all elite power threats at home. Justin Smoak has hit Lewis well in the past (7-16 with 2 HRs) and will be hitting in the five spot tonight ahead of Troy Tulowitzki, making him a strong GPP punt play near the minimum on both major sites. Michael Saunders is another elite target at the top of the Jays lineup - don't be shy with your exposure here despite a slow start to the week for Toronto.

The suddenly hot Angels will attempt to pummel Colby Lewis, who has hidden his 17.1 HR/FB this season behind an absurd 97.8 LOB%. Six HRs in 24 innings isn't a surprise when you have 21.0 Hard-Soft% over the last two calendar years. Mike Trout (167 wRC+, .293 ISO, 41.1 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Albert Pujols (114 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP) each have a 220+ wRC+, 50+ Hard% over the last week and we haven't even gotten to their success against Lewis. They've combined for seven HRs and since last year have a 97.8 mph (Pujols) and 104.3 mph (Trout) average exit velocity with seven batted balls each since last year against him. Additionally, Yunel Escobar (115 wRC+ vs RHP) and C.J. Cron (112 wRC+) a bit lower each have a wRC+ above 190 over the last week. An Angels stack may be in order with the top projected run line (4.7) tonight.

The Orioles have the second highest team total on the late slate (behind their opponent), making them a team you'll want some exposure to this evening. Colby Lewis will toe the rubber for the Rangers in Arlington, and he's a guy we can target with hitters from both sides of the plate. Chris Davis is the strongest target on the Baltimore side for a variety of reasons. First, his biggest weakness is the strikeout, and Lewis doesn't generate many of those (5.06 K/9 vs. LHs last season). Davis also has a nice track record against Lewis (in limited ABs), homering twice in just eight at-bats. Lewis also allows plenty of hard contact (32.4 hard%, 14.2 soft% vs. LHs last season), something Davis provides quite often (44.7 hard%, 6.8 soft% vs. RHs). Manny Machado is in arguably an equally great spot, as platoon splits look better against RH pitchers. He finished 2015 with a .384 wOBA, .232 ISO and is worth every penny in a mouthwatering spot like this. The entire lineup is in play here but the top six are playable in any format.

Don't be fooled by the Win/Loss record, Colby Lewis gave up a lot of hard contact last season (19.7 Hard-Soft%) and has done so throughout his career (15.1 Hard-Soft%). The park in Seattle tempers expectations slightly, but this is a lineup that should punish bad RHPs. Everyone aside from Iannetta and Martin are well above average hitters vs RHP. Aoki is only at a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, but has a coveted spot atop the lineup. Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, and Nelson Cruz all have a wRC+ above 125 against RHP since last season and are all off to hot starts (150+ wRC+ over last week).