Corbin Martin Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Corbin Martin has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 11 innings since an impressive debut, where he struck out nine Rangers. The 50th ranked prospect (Fangraphs) has faced 56 batters since then, walking eight and striking out only seven, while allowing five HRs. Martin has had above average strikeout rates at every stop in professional baseball, so it’s not a question of talent, but he appears over-matched in recent starts. The good news is that his 31.6 HR/FB comes with a board best 17.6 Hard-Soft%, supported by a 17.6 LD% and 15.8 IFFB%. The Statcast numbers tell a different, and stranger story though. While he’s allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE (best on the board), he’s also generating a 90.1 mph aEV with 45.1% of his contact above a 95 mph EV. Estimators, all above five, stand by his 5.51 ERA. On a three game slate, this is a spot where players can certainly take GPP shots on his prospect upside in a secondary role on DraftKings for $7.1K, but Seattle bats are certainly worth a flyer as well, as a lot of players probably aren’t sure how to handle Martin yet and would rather attack Eric Lauer’s 4.8 SwStr% over the last month or Wade LeBlanc’s .410 xwOBA this season. Martin has allowed much harder contact (42.3 Hard%) and a .370 xwOBA to same-handed batters so far (LHBs 28 Hard%, .288 xwOBA). Mitch Haniger (134 wRC+, .174 ISO), Domingo Santana (115 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Edwin Encarnacion (135 wRC+, .214 ISO) have been the batters who have done the most damage to same-handed pitching this year. Tim Beckham (103 wRC+, .203 ISO) has been competent as well.

While top 100 prospect and fire-balling rookie, Corbin Martin, is likely to be a popular pick on a two game slate, pitching at home against the White Sox, players on DraftKings need to choose two of tonight’s four pitchers. Ryan Yarbrough, who’s actually getting the start tonight, is another reasonable choice in his major league return after publishing a 32.1 K-BB% in 16.2 AAA innings (though his major league work prior to that has been pretty bad this year – 6.05 DRA, .343 xwOBA). Cleveland may be a much more positive run environment than Houston, but the Indians are easily the worst 2019 offense on the board tonight.

It’s not often that daily fantasy players consider pitchers going up against a difficult Houston lineup, but this is probably the ideal time to talk a bit about the resurgence of Lucas Giolito. Once a highly regarded prospect, Giolito floundered through his first 200 major league innings, but things appear to be taking a turn for the better, particularly of late. In his last 19.1 innings, Giolito has allowed just two runs, while striking out 20 of the 71 batters he has faced. For the season, he’s struck out 28.6% of batters faced to go along with a 3.35 ERA. All of his non-FIP estimators are sitting closer to four due to an unsustainable 7.3 HR/FB, but even that’s a tremendous improvement and above average pitcher. His .292 xwOBA supports his strong contact management results this year. Giolito is throwing a mile per hour harder, which has increased the whiff rate on his four-seamer by nearly 50% over last year and he has ditched a sinker that had a .358 xwOBA last season. A generally imposing Houston lineup is still down George Springer and Jose Altuve, giving today’s projected lineup a .339 wOBA and .190 ISO vs RHP. This is still an above average offense, but it’s now more of a beatable one in a negative run environment. Giolito reasonably costs exactly $8.4K on either site.