Cristian Javier Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A small six game Wednesday night slate includes three $10K pitchers and another one exceeding $9K on both sites (33% of the board). Most expensively, Alek Manoah has benefited from an 80.4 LOB% and 7.8 HR/FB, but in his favor, he’s only allowing 6% Barrels/BBE (87.4 mph EV, 30.7% 95+ mph EV) with excellent control (6.1 BB%), while the strikeout rate is starting to creep upward (27.6% last four starts). Sitting on a 17.2 K-BB% for the season, his 2.48 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.35 FIP to a 3.84 xFIP for the reasons mentioned, but he’s recorded at least two seventh inning outs in more than one-third of his starts. He has a marginal matchup (Orioles 100 wRC+, 22.3 K%) in a now power suppressing park in Baltimore and may be extra motivated after last night’s bench clearing incident, if you buy into that stuff. Weather and umpiring appear to be neutral. Manoah projects as merely tonight’s fourth best arm and seventh best value on either site, which essentially means middle of the board, but he could be a bit undervalued here.

Just $100 less on FanDuel ($500 on DraftKings), Yu Darvish has struck out exactly one-quarter of batters faced this year (second best on the board) and also gone at least seven innings in 13 of his last 25 starts. A 3.63 xERA is the estimator furthest removed from his 3.26 ERA (20.2 K-BB%). The Diamondbacks have just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP, but with a 21.2 K% and 12.2 HR/FB. They’re on the rise with the injection of new blood into their lineup, including top prospect Corbin Carroll. San Diego is generally a pitcher friendly run environment, but may have the most hitter friendly forecast on the slate. Never the less, Darvish projects as the second best arm on the slate and fourth best value on DraftKings, where he is $800 cheaper, though just a middling value (sixth) on FanDuel.

You wonder what keeps a guy with a 32.4 K% from being a permanent part of the rotation, but perhaps it’s the 9.1 BB% and 24.9 GB%, though the former isn’t extreme and the latter comes with just 7.9% Barrels/BBE and 34.5% 95+ mph EV. A 3.69 xFIP is Cristian Javier’s only estimator more than half a run removed from his 3.07 ERA and that’s probably because xFIP doesn’t handle extreme fly ball BABIP outliers (.240) very well, but this one could stick considering the profile and the .266 mark the Houston defense allows. Within $200 of $10K on either site against the Rangers (94 wRC+, 23.8 K%) in a controlled, negative run environment with the roof closed in Houston, Javier projects as the top arm and value on the slate, where the concern now becomes about ownership. He is volatile enough to come in underweight on if need be, though perhaps only Darvish can come close to his upside.

Whereas Jordan Montgomery was striking out batters at a below average rate with a swinging strike rate above 13% as a member of the Yankees, he’s struck out 22.9% of batters with a 10.3 SwStr% as a Cardinal with batters making more contact against him. It’s all very strange, but he rarely walks anyone (4.8%) and the Cardinals are encouraging him to throw more sinkers to increase his ground ball rate (58% since the trade) in front of their great infield defense. The strikeout increase may just be an unintentional byproduct. Overall, his 3.15 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.43 xFIP to a 4.19 DRA, but he could certainly maintain that gap with this defense (-17 Runs Prevented) and park, which does forecast some pitcher friendly weather tonight against the Nationals (92 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 8.5 HR/FB). It’s a nice run prevention spot, but not a high upside one. Montgomery projects as tonight’s third best arm and fifth best value on either site.

Tonight’s top projected pitcher is also a top three projected point per dollar value on either site and that’s because Cristian Javier may be a bit under-priced on FanDuel ($8.7K) for a matchup in Oakland (75 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.8 HR/FB vs RHP). While $900 more on DraftKings, that may still be a bargain, according to PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change. Oakland is a park upgrade and Javier has lost nothing in transition from the bullpen to rotation this year. In fact, he’s struck out 18 of his last 42 batters to drive his strikeout rate up to 33.1%. He is generating just 27.5% of his contact on the ground and allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE, but even that generates just a 2.90 xERA. A 3.31 xFIP is his only estimator above three. Oakland is also where barrels go to die.

Ryan Yarbrough is actually the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel currently for just $6.4K. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats (18.7 K%), but generally has elite control and is one of the best contact managers in the league. While he’s not doing so much the former (8.8 BB%), the latter is certainly up to his stellar standards (84.4 mph EV, 3.2% Barrels/BBE). His xERA (3.41) is usually less than his other estimators and while pitcher exit velocities generally aren’t always considered predictive, he’s been excelling in that category for long enough that there’s probably something to it. While Texas is a bit of a park downgrade, it still plays slightly run negative with the roof closed, while the Rangers have actually excelled vs LHP this season (111 wRC+, 20.3 K%).

Blake Snell is another pitcher projections may be too cheap on FanDuel ($7K), but this is a highly volatile arm in a dangerous spot. The Padres never know which version of Snell they’re going to get on any given night, but it’s a good bet it won’t include a ton of balls in play. He’s faced 38 batters this year with 12 strikeouts, five walks and two home runs with another two barrels (19%) that stayed in the yard. Much like last year, he producing a strikeout rate above 30% with a double digit walk rate, which rarely lets him get deep into games. Even 104 pitches last time out didn’t get him through six innings. St Louis is usually a firmly negative run environment and power suppressive, though all bets seem to be off when it warms up and with 86 degrees and 10 mph winds out to LF in the forecast, a St Louis offense with a 137 wRC+ and 17.9 K% vs LHP becomes that much more dangerous. Still, you’re getting a 30+ K% for $7K.

George Kirby projects very strongly from a point per dollar perspective on DraftKings ($6.6K). Top pitching prospect for Seattle did allow four runs to the A’s over just five innings last time out, but also struck out a career high nine of 23 batters faced after struggling in starts in Boston and New York (NL). Overall, he has a 21.1 K-BB% through four starts with just two walks. While his 10.6 SwStr% is average, a 79.5 Z-Contact% is more impressive. On the negative end, 47.6% of his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat. All estimators are more than one-third of a run below his 4.50 ERA and Baltimore is now a pitcher friendly environment, while the O’s have a 95 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP.

Jordan Montgomery projects as a strong value on either site for $8K or less. While he isn’t the type of pitcher you’d consider a workhorse (he’s completed six innings just three times in nine starts without recording a seventh inning out all season), it’s still a bit of a shock that he’s failed to strike out more than five in any of his starts, despite a 13.5 SwStr%. A 4.3 BB% and 5.0% Barrels/BBE have still kept all estimators below four, but you have to believe the strikeouts have increase at some point. Perhaps the Angels help him get there (23.2 K% vs LHP), but the offense is dangerous (113 wRC+, 14.4 HR/FB vs LHP). On the other side, the premium velocity may be gone for good, but Noah Syndergaard still throws harder than the average starter and 40% of his runs have come in just one start. The only negative in his profile is a 17.3 K%, but Thor has an 11.8 SwStr% to go with a 5.1 BB%, 50.4 GB% and 87.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 13 of his last 60 (21.7%) and doesn’t have a single estimator more than a run above his 3.08 ERA. The Yankees have a 109 wRC+ and 21.5 K% vs RHP, but this is a banged up offense that has just a 74 wRC+ and 19.2 K-BB% over the last week. Syndergaard is an affordable $7.5K on DraftKings.