Dan Straily Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dan Straily has exceed two trips though the lineup (18 batters) just twice this year, so the Angels should be seeing at least half a game’s worth of the Baltimore bullpen with a 4.63 xFIP this year and a .322 wOBA with a .157 ISO allowed to RHBs according to PlateIQ’s new Bullpen tool. Straily, with just a 9.8 K%, .412 xwOBA and 50.5% 95+ mph EV, should have problem of his own before then against a team that rarely strikes out. How bad is it expected to be? You’d think this game was being played at Coors with the wind blowing out. The Angels sit at a ridiculous 6.26 implied runs early on today. People will and should find creative ways to fit Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) into their cash game lineups tonight. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .340 xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 40% and ground ball rate below 35% against Straily over the last 12 months. The big park in Miami helped hide some of those flaws, but Camden is not nearly as forgiving. Shohei Ohtani (171 wRC+, .333 ISO), Tommy La Stella (119 wRC+, .185 ISO), Kole Calhoun (109 wRC+, .256 ISO), and Brian Goodwin (120 wRC+, .177 ISO) are all LHBs of interest in the projected lineup. Even Albert Pujols (82 wRC+, .135 ISO) might be playable here if in the top half of the lineup.

The Rays are in Baltimore Friday night to face Dan Straily, who has had a rough start to the year with a 7.04 xFIP, 2.3 K-BB%, 3.38 HR/9 and .405 xwOBA allowed. Straily has long been a fly ball pitcher (46.1% career FB rate) but is giving up an ugly 53.5% mark this year, as well as a 14.1 Barrel%, way up from his 7.6% career average. Straily’s platoon splits are close to even for his career and he can be targeted with hitters from both side of the plate tonight. Brandon Lowe (.373 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Tommy Pham (.371), Ji-Man Choi (.378) and Yandy Diaz (.352) make up the top 4 hitters for the Rays Friday night and are all great bets for value and upside. Nate Lowe (155 wRC+ in AAA this year) bats 5th and comes with a discount compared to the rest of the Rays’ top hitters. Mike Zunino is under $4k and has shown decent pop vs. RHP since 2018 with a .314 mark, he also has a .420 xwOBA over the last 10 days. The Rays will also have the benefit of a very friendly hitters’ umpire in Bill Welke.

Dan Straily has a 9.4 SwStr% that almost matches his 10.3 K%, but his 43.1 Z-O-Swing% is second worst on the board and batters are launching his pitches. His .405 xwOBA is second worst on the board. His 14.1% Barrels/BBE and 52.1% 95+ mph EV are worst. There may be some weather headed for Baltimore, but the current forecast appears to improve HR chances (Premium subscribers have access to Weather Edge) in an already power friendly park. This is such a friendly matchup that despite the game at Coors tonight, the Rays currently own the top implied run line on the board (5.79). Brandon Lowe (140 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Tommy Pham (123 wRC+, .193 ISO) and Ji-Man Choi (145 wRC+, .240 ISO) are among the top overall bats on the board tonight and all are above a 140 wRC+ over the last week. Batters from either side of the plate are above a 40% hard hit rate and .340 xwOBA against Straily over the last calendar year.

Though Dan Straily isn’t awful, he gives up a ton of fly balls (45.8% FB for his career) and a good portion of them end up over the wall (1.47 career HR/9). Straily faces a decent Twins offense today with the wind blowing out directly to left at 16 MPH. For his career, Straily is slightly worse versus LHB (.327 wOBA allowed vs. LHB, .316 vs RHB) but gives up more HR to RHB (1.61 HR/9 vs. 1.33). The Twins have the 2nd highest implied total of all teams today at 5.67. Nelson Cruz (career 123 wRC+ vs. RHP), Willians Astudillo (career 129 wRC+ vs. RHP) and Jonathan Schoop (career 100 wRC+ vs. RHP) are right-handed bats in the Twins' order that will try to take advantage of the wind blowing out to left. Other non-RHB options include Max Kepler (leading off, 107 career wRC+ vs. RHP), Jorge Polanco (214 wRC+ this year), Eddie Rosario (144 wRC+ this year), and Marwin Gonzalez (60 wRC+ this year, career 103 wRC+ vs. RHP).

The Pirates are less than one half run removed from the top of the board at 4.86 implied runs at home against Dan Straily. He normally doesn't have much of a split, but LHBs (.357 wOBA) are 70 points above RHBs against him. However, with a similar hard hit rate above 45% and ground ball rate below 35%, xwOBA has RHBs at .360 and LHBs as .375. The reason for the optimism on the Pittsburgh lineup is now apparent. Gregory Polanco (129 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP this season), Francisco Cervelli (136 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Starling Marte (113 wRC+, .170 ISO) are the top bats in this lineup. Corey Dickerson (111 wRC+, .186 ISO) is going through his second straight post-All-Star break swoon (-24 wRC+ last seven days). Kevin Kramer (141 wRC+ at AAA) is the cheap top of the lineup bat.

Batters from either side of the plate are within six points of a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Dan Straily since last season. He suffers a park downgrade against a Washington lineup that boasts the first seven hitters all either above a 100 wRC+ or a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Bryce Harper (134 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Juan Soto (147 wRC+, .226 ISO) have both bases covered. Harper has a 199 wRC+ and 73.7 Hard% over the last week. Daniel Murphy (137 wRC+, .168 ISO) is on fire as well (204 wRC+, 56 Hard%). Only two teams exceed Washington's 5.58 run line tonight.

Dan Straily allows a lot of hard contact in the air (8.6% Barrels/BBE) and suffers a park downgrade in Atlanta tonight. The Braves are one of two teams hovering around five implied runs and each of the first three batters in their lineup are above a .200 ISO vs RHP. That's Ronald Acuna (128 wRC+, .237 ISO), Ozzie Albies (110 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .202 ISO). No other batter in the lineup is above a 110 wRC+ or .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year, though Kurt Suzuki (110 wRC+, .182 ISO) comes close and has some value behind the plate for $3.5K (DK) or $2.6K (FD). Straily has no split.

There are no...pitchers above $10K on either site, 25% strikeout rates, or offenses below 3.6 implied runs tonight. Tonight's pitching options are difficult at best. The top five strikeout rates on the board are Rich Hill (25.8%), Trevor Cahill (24.3%), Anibal Sanchez (24.2%), Kyle Gibson (23.6%) and Nick Kingham (22.7%). Hill has workload issues and is facing the Braves (116 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs LHP), but should probably still be considered for $9K on this slate. Cahill is facing an offense with a 25.3 K% vs RHP, but does so in Texas. Sanchez gets the Dodgers (111 wRC+ vs RHP), Gibson has the Red Sox at Fenway and Kingham hosts the Mets (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP). He's gone at least six innings in four of his last five starts, allowing seven HRs over that span though. Never the less, he may be an answer as the second most expensive pitcher on either site. The other thing to consider is that there are just two extremely negative run environments on the board in Miami and San Francisco. The first pits Tommy Milone against Dan Straily. Straily has just a 17 K% over the last month, but has gone at least six innings in five straight and has a .273 xwOBA over the last 30 days that's 100 points below his season average. The Washington lineup is dangerous, but he gets to face them in a power suppressing park for $7K or less. Milone is interesting because of a 19.9 K-BB% in 20 AAA starts this year, but he has just a 10.8% mark over 736 major league innings and has never reached a 20 K% in any season. He's not available on FanDuel. San Francisco looks like the destination for daily fantasy pitching tonight. Derek Rodriguez (18.9 K%, 4.25 SIERA, .306 xwOBA). He's completed six innings in six of eight starts and the Brewers should supply some upside (25.3 K%), while their power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP) should be tempered by the park. Wade Miley (14.7 K%, 5.55 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) is much less exciting, but doesn't allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground (56.9%).