Dane Dunning Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Pitching is cheap enough on DraftKings where players probably don’t have to drop down to the bottom of the board for their secondary arms tonight, but there are still a few lower priced arms worth mentioning. Zack Greinke’s velocity was actually up a tick in his return to the Royals, though he still struck out only one Guardian with a 4.8 SwStr%. The control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (6.4% Barrels/BBE) have remained excellent since the start of last year, but with just a 16.8 K%, the ERA and estimators have jumped above four. All of that said, he might be too cheap against the Tigers in Kansas City, a power suppressing park. Greinke costs just $6.8K.

Dane Dunning faced more batters in his first start of the season (23) than he did in all, but four starts last year. He posted a league average 22.3 K% last year with a 53.9 GB%. Perhaps that’s persuaded the Rangers to take the reins off or at least loosen them a bit this year. While he struck out just four of 23 batters with two walks and a home run, that’s a pretty successful start against the Blue Jays. The Angels should be one of the better offenses in the league if all of their star stay healthy, but they haven’t started off all that strongly (87 wRC+) and feature just one batter below a 23.5 K% vs RHP since last season in their lineup. Dunning costs just $6.4K on DK.

J.T. Brubaker is only available on FanDuel, but makes for a daring play at $6.3K for those who want to load up on Coors bats. He walked three of the 17 Cardinals he faced in his first start, allowing a home run as well. The latter was a major problem for him last year, but not the former (7.1 BB%). St Louis had just a 25% chase rate in that game. He gets a much easier matchup today, facing a lineup full of young hitters, though don’t expect Soto to be chasing either. Brubaker does have a career 15.9 K-BB%, which suggests there’s still some upside here. The Nats have just a 70 wRC+ and team 20 K-BB% this season.

High upside spots not belonging to the highest priced pitchers find Bruce Zimmermann (vs Twins), Dane Dunning (at Coors), Eric Lauer (vs Tigers), Marco Gonzales (vs A’s) and Matt Boyd (vs Brewers) tonight. Covering the two surprises on that list first, the Twins have four batters in the projected lineup exceeding a 26 K% vs LHP since last season, while the A’s have four above a 29 K%. Now, remove both of those situations from your memory because both Zimmermann (9.8% Barrels/BBE) and Gonzales (14% Barrels/BBE) have hard contact issues against powerful lineups. In the case of the latter, Gonzales hasn’t pitched since April.

Boyd and Lauer face off against each other in Milwaukee. Boyd being the greatest beneficiary of a slightly deadened ball should come as no surprise, but that he’s allowed half the Barrels (6.4%) and just one-fifth the number of home runs (three) as he did last year in just a couple more innings is a much larger effect than expected. His 13.4 K-BB% is his lowest mark since 2019. The 4.3 HR/FB is unsustainable, but if you give him credit for his actual contact profile a 3.68 xERA is his only non-FIP estimator that isn’t well above four. He’s been tagged for 14 of his 24 runs allowed over his last three starts. Six of eight projected Milwaukee bats exceed a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020. Alternately, the Tigers have four projected batters above a 25 K% vs LHP since last season. Behind a one mph velocity bump from his career rate and a rearrangement of his pitch arsenal (more cuttters and changeups, fewer four-seamers and curveballs), Eric Lauer has a 21.6 K-BB% and 45.9 GB% through 22 innings that would each dwarf his previous career highs. While 9.5% of his contact has been barreled, the exit velocity is still league average and almost exactly his career rate (88.9 mph). Lauer may be slightly interesting within $400 of $8K on either site, while Boyd is certainly more interesting as an SP2 for $2K less than his FanDuel cost on DraftKings.

Dunning has almost alternated between near dominance and destruction with a sinker heavy approach (58.3%) that has generated 56.3% of his contact on the ground and allowed him to strike out 25.4% of batters, despite just a 9.9 SwStr%. The good news here is that his xERA is the only estimators above four and just barely (4.17). With a 15.2 IFFB% and 19.3 LD% to go along with the ground ball rate, a .356 BABIP seems unearned and unsustainable. Facing the Rockies at Coors, especially without Story, is no longer intimidating and Dunning does make an interesting SP2 in GPPs for less than $6K on DraftKings against a projected lineup with just four of eight batters below a 26.9 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Dane Dunning was the major get for the Rangers in the Lance Lynn trade. A marginal prospect, he had a very respectable six start debut last season with a 15.5 K-BB% and 3.97 ERA that was fairly close to all of his estimators. His .239 BABIP was a bit too low, but maybe his 66.9 LOB% was too. The batted ball profile and exit velocities were both fairly average. He has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. His first start for the Rangers was encouraging. He struck out six of 18 Blue Jays (12.9 SwStr%) without a walk and one Barrel (a HR) on 12 BBE (90 mph EV). It looks like his new coaching staff is pushing him in a different direction: 71.4% of his pitches were sinkers without any four seam fastballs (20.8% last year). This may lead to more ground balls with fewer strikeouts going forward. This is not a concern we should have against the Rays. Five of nine batters in tonight’s projected lineup for Tampa Bay exceed a 28 K% vs RHP since 2019. This is not a lineup without dangerous spots, though only two batters exceed a .200 ISO and three are below an 85 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019. In addition, the Rays generally prefer to balance their lineup and RHBs are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Dunning in his career so far. The dome is also a negative run environment. The largest concern here is that Dunning may not be a high volume pitcher. He’s faced an average of 20 batters per start over his eight outings. However, if a cheap secondary arm is necessary on DraftKings tonight, Dunning is worth a shot in a high upside spot.